July 2022
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redneckweather
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
0.00"
Same here. Did yours come down all at once, or over a period of several hours?
I grew up in eastern NC, so we'd live halfway in between ideally - Greensboro - Winston-Salem area.
Gainesville is a tree-huggers and plant paradise as well. Very few big palms, but all other trees including fairly large palmettos, cool weather resistant palms. It can much colder in CS than Gainesville in the winter.
A giant donut!!
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Yep , we can pretty much disregard any rain the models are showing this week, looks like that ridge doesnt really break down
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 251128
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...
VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Light SSW
winds in the morning, turning SE in the afternoon and increasing
to 8-12 KTS with higher gusts on occasion. Light passing SH are
possible for GLS/LBX in the morning and iso-sct SH/TS possible
mainly in or around IAH/HOU in the afternoon. Light S winds
expected late Mon night into Tue morning.
24
&&
.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
A few light streamer showers moving across the Gulf waters are
expected to move northward over the southern portions of Southeast
Texas later this morning. Accumulations will be minimal. By late
morning into early afternoon, some isolated to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms can be expected to develop, though coverage
may be less than what we had yesterday afternoon. Most, if not all,
activity will be along and near the sea and bay breeze; thus, most
likely see the strongest of this activity to be in and around
Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Galveston counties. It will be
another day of highs in the upper 90s to low 100s inland and the mid
90s for coastal areas; please continue to take precaution if you
plan to work or spend time outdoors. LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK, never
leave children or pets in the car. For tonight, tranquil conditions
are expected with lows in the upper 70s inland and in the low to mid
80s along the coasts.
For Tuesday, slightly higher rain chances may be on tap as slightly
higher PWs (~2.0 inches) from the Gulf waters moves across the
region. We will begin to have showers moving in from the Gulf waters
by early morning and as the morning progresses these will move
inland mainly over areas south of the I-10 corridor. As daytime
heating ramps up and the sea breeze develops, expect showers and
thunderstorms to expand in coverage. Still not expecting high
amounts of rainfall accumulations, but at this rate, any little bit
helps. Highs in the upper 90s to low 100s again on Tuesday, though
some spots who get to bask in some rain may see highs a degree or
two lower. Another warm but calm night is in store for Tuesday
night, with lows once again in the upper 70s to low 80s.
NOTE: Check out yesterday`s climate section below for some
interesting temperature facts for Southeast Texas.
24
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
An inverted trof is fcst to be making its way wwd to the Texas
coast late Wed. This may slightly enhance rain chances with a
more hospitable temp profile aloft. Otherwise, though temps will
probably be running 2-4 degrees above normal, it`s looking a bit
closer to a typical summertime pattern. Expect some diurnally
driven isolated-scattered precip coverage most days with a
prevailing southeast flow off the Gulf. Those closer to the coast
will see the highest POPs is association with the seabreeze.
Further inland it`ll continue to be a battle w/ some subsidence
in relation with some flat ridging stretching from the southeast
states into Tx. Mid/upper ridging appears to strengthen some both
to our east and west over the weekend and into next week. Some guidance
still showing the potential for some weak inverted trofs passing
under the ridge(s) which might keep things status quo...otherwise
would anticipate heights to start increasing again along with a
bump in temp trends. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail
through the week. Mariners can expect daily slight chances of
showers and thunderstorms...primarily in the late night and
morning hours. 47
&&
.CLIMATE...
So far this month (July 1-23)...
-College Station
...Average high temperature 103.4 degrees (8.5 above normal)
...Average low temperature 78.5 degrees (3.7 above normal)
...Average temperature 91.0 degrees (6.1 above normal)
...Total rainfall 0.01 inches (1.52 below normal)
Set their all-time record high for the month of 111 degrees on the
10th (previous record was 110 on 7/11/1917 and on 7/24/1903)
Records date back to 10/01/1888.
--------------------------
-Houston
...Average high temperature 98.9 degrees (4.7 above normal)
...Average low temperature 77.9 degrees (2.3 above normal)
...Average temperature 88.4 degrees (3.6 above normal)
...Total rainfall 1.34 inches (1.63 below normal)
Tied their all-time record high for the month of 105 degrees on the
10th (previous record of 105 was on 7/26/1954)
Tied their all-time warmest low temperature for July of 83 degrees
on the 11th (previous record of 83 was on 7/30/2009)
Records date back to 5/01/1889.
-------------------------
-Houston Hobby
...Average high temperature 97.8 degrees (5.2 above normal)
...Average low temperature 78.7 degrees (2.2 above normal)
...Average temperature 88.3 degrees (3.8 above normal)
...Total rainfall 1.68 inches (1.97 below normal)
High temperature of 104 degrees on the 10th tied for the second
warmest high temperature ever recorded for the month (highest is 105
on 7/8/1939).
Records date back to 8/01/1930.
-------------------------
-Galveston
...Average high temperature 92.7 degrees (1.6 above normal)
...Average low temperature 83.7 degrees (4.2 above normal)
...Average temperature 88.2 degrees (2.9 above normal)
...Total rainfall 4.05 inches (1.30 above normal)
Set their all-time warmest low temperature for July of 86 degrees
four separate times (19th, 20th, 23rd and 24th)! The previous
record of 85 has happened ten separate times this month!
Records dating back to 5/10/1874.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 104 78 103 79 / 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 100 78 99 78 / 20 0 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 96 85 94 84 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 251128
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...
VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Light SSW
winds in the morning, turning SE in the afternoon and increasing
to 8-12 KTS with higher gusts on occasion. Light passing SH are
possible for GLS/LBX in the morning and iso-sct SH/TS possible
mainly in or around IAH/HOU in the afternoon. Light S winds
expected late Mon night into Tue morning.
24
&&
.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
A few light streamer showers moving across the Gulf waters are
expected to move northward over the southern portions of Southeast
Texas later this morning. Accumulations will be minimal. By late
morning into early afternoon, some isolated to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms can be expected to develop, though coverage
may be less than what we had yesterday afternoon. Most, if not all,
activity will be along and near the sea and bay breeze; thus, most
likely see the strongest of this activity to be in and around
Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Galveston counties. It will be
another day of highs in the upper 90s to low 100s inland and the mid
90s for coastal areas; please continue to take precaution if you
plan to work or spend time outdoors. LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK, never
leave children or pets in the car. For tonight, tranquil conditions
are expected with lows in the upper 70s inland and in the low to mid
80s along the coasts.
For Tuesday, slightly higher rain chances may be on tap as slightly
higher PWs (~2.0 inches) from the Gulf waters moves across the
region. We will begin to have showers moving in from the Gulf waters
by early morning and as the morning progresses these will move
inland mainly over areas south of the I-10 corridor. As daytime
heating ramps up and the sea breeze develops, expect showers and
thunderstorms to expand in coverage. Still not expecting high
amounts of rainfall accumulations, but at this rate, any little bit
helps. Highs in the upper 90s to low 100s again on Tuesday, though
some spots who get to bask in some rain may see highs a degree or
two lower. Another warm but calm night is in store for Tuesday
night, with lows once again in the upper 70s to low 80s.
NOTE: Check out yesterday`s climate section below for some
interesting temperature facts for Southeast Texas.
24
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
An inverted trof is fcst to be making its way wwd to the Texas
coast late Wed. This may slightly enhance rain chances with a
more hospitable temp profile aloft. Otherwise, though temps will
probably be running 2-4 degrees above normal, it`s looking a bit
closer to a typical summertime pattern. Expect some diurnally
driven isolated-scattered precip coverage most days with a
prevailing southeast flow off the Gulf. Those closer to the coast
will see the highest POPs is association with the seabreeze.
Further inland it`ll continue to be a battle w/ some subsidence
in relation with some flat ridging stretching from the southeast
states into Tx. Mid/upper ridging appears to strengthen some both
to our east and west over the weekend and into next week. Some guidance
still showing the potential for some weak inverted trofs passing
under the ridge(s) which might keep things status quo...otherwise
would anticipate heights to start increasing again along with a
bump in temp trends. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail
through the week. Mariners can expect daily slight chances of
showers and thunderstorms...primarily in the late night and
morning hours. 47
&&
.CLIMATE...
So far this month (July 1-23)...
-College Station
...Average high temperature 103.4 degrees (8.5 above normal)
...Average low temperature 78.5 degrees (3.7 above normal)
...Average temperature 91.0 degrees (6.1 above normal)
...Total rainfall 0.01 inches (1.52 below normal)
Set their all-time record high for the month of 111 degrees on the
10th (previous record was 110 on 7/11/1917 and on 7/24/1903)
Records date back to 10/01/1888.
--------------------------
-Houston
...Average high temperature 98.9 degrees (4.7 above normal)
...Average low temperature 77.9 degrees (2.3 above normal)
...Average temperature 88.4 degrees (3.6 above normal)
...Total rainfall 1.34 inches (1.63 below normal)
Tied their all-time record high for the month of 105 degrees on the
10th (previous record of 105 was on 7/26/1954)
Tied their all-time warmest low temperature for July of 83 degrees
on the 11th (previous record of 83 was on 7/30/2009)
Records date back to 5/01/1889.
-------------------------
-Houston Hobby
...Average high temperature 97.8 degrees (5.2 above normal)
...Average low temperature 78.7 degrees (2.2 above normal)
...Average temperature 88.3 degrees (3.8 above normal)
...Total rainfall 1.68 inches (1.97 below normal)
High temperature of 104 degrees on the 10th tied for the second
warmest high temperature ever recorded for the month (highest is 105
on 7/8/1939).
Records date back to 8/01/1930.
-------------------------
-Galveston
...Average high temperature 92.7 degrees (1.6 above normal)
...Average low temperature 83.7 degrees (4.2 above normal)
...Average temperature 88.2 degrees (2.9 above normal)
...Total rainfall 4.05 inches (1.30 above normal)
Set their all-time warmest low temperature for July of 86 degrees
four separate times (19th, 20th, 23rd and 24th)! The previous
record of 85 has happened ten separate times this month!
Records dating back to 5/10/1874.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 104 78 103 79 / 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 100 78 99 78 / 20 0 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 96 85 94 84 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
And yet, the ridging this week is never actually centered over Texas, nor in other fashion that would dry the state out (i.e. the expanded "Four Corners" pattern that corresponded to those 110°F+ highs in College Station. Instead, this whole week features more of a broad, flat pattern west to east into the Atlantic: if anything, heights get a bit stronger over Georgia than they ever are in Texas this week.
So models are probably being too conservative this week. That, or the ridge gets too much blame when it comes to dry versus wet patterns: probably more a dependence on the moisture column depth (Jasons2k) regardless.
So models are probably being too conservative this week. That, or the ridge gets too much blame when it comes to dry versus wet patterns: probably more a dependence on the moisture column depth (Jasons2k) regardless.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 251743
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Sea
breeze is starting to push in from the coast at 18Z and could
kick up a few showers and storms this afternoon. Convection should
subside after sunset with the loss of daytime heating and winds
will begin to decrease. Patchy fog possible, mainly west of I-45
and especially for our rural and low lying areas. Held off on
mentioning visibility impacts for now for LBX, SGR, and CLL, but
fog cannot be ruled out for these sites.
Lenninger
FXUS64 KHGX 251743
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Sea
breeze is starting to push in from the coast at 18Z and could
kick up a few showers and storms this afternoon. Convection should
subside after sunset with the loss of daytime heating and winds
will begin to decrease. Patchy fog possible, mainly west of I-45
and especially for our rural and low lying areas. Held off on
mentioning visibility impacts for now for LBX, SGR, and CLL, but
fog cannot be ruled out for these sites.
Lenninger
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
And noaas latest 6-10 and 8-14 fay outlooks are back to below normal precipitation for Texas, what a joke! Any rain that the models show, you can pretty much just take it with a massive grain of salt, ive been through some pretty boring weather patterns but this one by far is the worst
Massive grain of salt eh.
It’s flooding in Pearland.
It’s flooding in Pearland.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Rip76 maybe not you but the storms always go around my area every time, thats why i never put much faith into models showing rain around here lol, its been like that the whole summer, it is truely depressing seeing all that convective action over the other gulf states except for us
From this afternoon’s NWS AFD:
.CLIMATE...
Galveston set their new all-time July record high minimum temperature back on the 19th with a morning low of 86 degrees. Since then, the new record has been tied three more times - on the 20th, 23rd and 24th.
Today will not be added to this record since the low this morning was
a much more comfortable 85 degrees.
.CLIMATE...
Galveston set their new all-time July record high minimum temperature back on the 19th with a morning low of 86 degrees. Since then, the new record has been tied three more times - on the 20th, 23rd and 24th.
Today will not be added to this record since the low this morning was
a much more comfortable 85 degrees.
How much more “Donut” can it get? Sheesh…
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
picture, thousand words; donut hole yada yada....monsoon west, normal summer storms east.
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Heck, not even Florida has as much modeled qpf on that map as is showing up in those western desert areas.
And that is why I'm not as much sold on the "Mexican plateau dry air column" theory. (1) Any dryness from that region would have to advect from the southwest to make it into Texas ... which does present at times with mid-latitude storm dynamics (i.e. especially spring with severe weather, dryline, capping, etc setups), but not really summer when the flows tend to be more easterly over SE Texas. And as pointed out, (2) the literal deserts themselves are seeing rainfall.
(NOTE: what I mention depends purely on the specific rainfall dynamics concerning those desert regions, of course. The modelled rainfall could very well all be purely orographic in reality, specifically to mountain slopes).
Otherwise, I have no good answer regarding the trouble Texas has with seeing summer rainfall. It's as if it happens just for the sake of happening, no rhyme or reason — it's one thing to see a gradual wetter trend as you go east towards the Atlantic Seaboard ... but no, it's literally soaking ample rains literally right until TX/LA border area doorstep, then BAM, bone dryness.
Honestly it defies logic at this point. The "Mexican dry air" doesn't hold much for me as per reasons I described above, while the general ridging/high pressure doesn't apply since Southern states farther east often have qpf even with similar (if not stronger) heights compared to Texas.
A curse from a wicked witch over Texas might as well be a valid explanation at this point.
(NOTE: there are obviously specific physical processes at play, of course, that I just might be overlooking/not familiar with. I'm just stating how things would appear to an unacquainted layman looking at the map, as for why Texas is always the donut hole.)
Honestly it defies logic at this point. The "Mexican dry air" doesn't hold much for me as per reasons I described above, while the general ridging/high pressure doesn't apply since Southern states farther east often have qpf even with similar (if not stronger) heights compared to Texas.
A curse from a wicked witch over Texas might as well be a valid explanation at this point.
(NOTE: there are obviously specific physical processes at play, of course, that I just might be overlooking/not familiar with. I'm just stating how things would appear to an unacquainted layman looking at the map, as for why Texas is always the donut hole.)