Remnants of Hermine

[ticka1]

Please bring us rain! I promise I won't complain.

[tireman4]

Please bring us rain! I promise I won't complain.

Sure.....Ticka.. sure....LOL

[srainhoutx]

HGX is not impressed...but we shall see...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO SE
TX THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE MODELS SHOW
THE DRIER AIR GENERALLY REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE GULF NUDGING ITS WAY TOWARD
THE COAST. THOUGHT THAT THE NAM WAS A BIT TOO FAST AND TOO FAR
INLAND WITH THE RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND DECIDED
TO GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION.

DO NOT THINK THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE INLAND AREAS UNTIL THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND.
BROUGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN THE COASTAL AREAS ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE PW/S ARE NOT FORECAST TO GET MUCH
ABOVE 2.5 INCHES...AND THAT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS ON SATURDAY
AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON SUNDAY. IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DOES OCCUR...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

[Andrew]

Don't think or hope this will happen or we will really have some problems:

[srainhoutx]

The ever changing area to watch...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Don't think or hope this will happen or we will really have some problems:

The Canadian QPF chart would be concerning. I wonder if this is a slower process than many believe. Worrisome that we have a favorable MJO pulse that appears rather strong heading E as well to add to the mix. Keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf the next few weeks.

[Andrew]

Don't think or hope this will happen or we will really have some problems:

The Canadian QPF chart would be concerning. I wonder if this is a slower process than many believe. Worrisome that we have a favorable MJO pulse that appears rather strong heading E as well to add to the mix. Keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf the next few weeks.

I believe it does and as you can tell most of the moisture is to the north of the low. Yea the next couple of weeks look extremely busy with little sleep.

[biggerbyte]

Edit to say, never mind...

[MRG93415]

Anyword on what this is going to do?

[srainhoutx]

Not looking good for our rain chances here it seems...

[wxman57]

Looking good for my biking chances, though. Got a new high-power (1400 lumen) light for my birthday that should set the Brays Bayou trail on fire. As for the Gulf, check out this web site for some good graphics on development potential:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Here's one of the graphics depicting the current instability of the Gulf vs. normal. Airmass out there is quite stable now, making it hard for something to develop:

[biggerbyte]

Funny what a difference a day can make. Yesterday things looked promising for some home grown activity, not to mention a pattern change for the Atlantic systems to push more west. I had made a statement earlier on that the Atlantic storms go fish, Caribbean Storms learn spanish, and Gulf storms go poof. It looks like things are even more troublesome than that. The Gulf has been a beast this year. Will we ever get rain????? Arggggg! I give up on trying to forecast this unrelenting season. I've never seen such huge shifts in thinking from one day to the next.

[biggerbyte]

We still need to watch Earl. In spite of the models saying otherwise, it looks to me like that pattern change will indeed come about. Earl will sail farther westward under the ridge. If he gets under the ridge over the s.e states, there will be no turn northward like and when depicted by the models. At that point the ball game changes. Folks in the Caribbean and Gulf become the focus. Let's watch to see if he gets to ride north behind Danielle at some point before the door slams shut. If not....

[srainhoutx]

Still a bit noisy in the Gulf. HGX suggested higher rain chances near the coast and offshore for the weekend. We will see.

[biggerbyte]

If this would all just shift west... A change is coming. Dwayne is getting impatient.

[sleetstorm]

Looking good for my biking chances, though. Got a new high-power (1400 lumen) light for my birthday that should set the Brays Bayou trail on fire. As for the Gulf, check out this web site for some good graphics on development potential:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Here's one of the graphics depicting the current instability of the Gulf vs. normal. Airmass out there is quite stable now, making it hard for something to develop:

Yesterday or today was your birthday, wxman57? Happy Birthday, man.

[srainhoutx]

Still looking disturbed S of Lafayette...

[biggerbyte]

The Gulf remains unsettled today. Even though the official word is nada, I'm not sure I agree. When we have something more than nothing in the tropics, it always bears watching. We are certainly seeing a trend.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like shear is keeping this disturbance in check... so far...

[biggerbyte]

Story of our lives, here lately..

Sunny and shear.