Wx Infinity Forums

There is a weak frontal boundary offshore, but I don't see any sign of a surface circulation. It's something to keep an eye on, as such features can definitely develop into storms with little warning.

Wxman57 - I know you are watching for tropical development - its your job - but will this feature out in the GOM will it increase our chance for rain in the upcoming week/weekend?

ticka1 wrote:Wxman57 - I know you are watching for tropical development - its your job - but will this feature out in the GOM will it increase our chance for rain in the upcoming week/weekend?

Good chance of that if it tracks far enough north into the Texas coast Thu/Fri. Building high over the eastern U.S. should result in deeper onshore flow here by then, too. Maybe more afternoon storms if nothing else. I got a good drenching last evening in Westbury.

Can you Post a link to those Models??? Thanks!!!

Canadian...



NAM...



Also for what it is worth the Euro is showing a weak low pressure off the Lower TX Coast as well on Saturday.

Thank you so much! You all are awsome on this forum!!!!

Also of note is the amount of disturbed weather across the Western Caribbean and Western Gulf. Also note what appears to be a TD/TS in the Eastern Caribbean...

If anything were to develop in the short term, i'm looking at about 26N and 93W.

Probabaly way off.

18Z NAM develops a low off the TX Coast in 42 hours.



HGX:

A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RATHER POTENT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP FETCH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO TAKE AIM ON THE TEXAS COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALSO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
SAT/SUN. THE ECMWF...GFS AND CAN SHOW THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOICATED
WEAKNESS ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z ECMWF/CAN ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF DISPLACING THE PRECIP TOWARD LOUISIANA...WHILE
THE GFS PLACES THE GREATEST RAINFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST. THE
ECMWF/CAN HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CONSISTENCY AND PREFER THE MORE
STABLE GFS. THE GFS SHOWS PW VALUES OF 2.4 TO 2.6 INCHES AND A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THR COAST. IF THE GFS PANS OUT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH A SHARP QPF
GRADIENT. COULD SEE EXCESSIVE RAIN AT THE COAST AND LESS THAN AN
INCH OF RAIN WELL INLAND. WHICHEVER SUITE OF MODELS IS
CORRECT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND LOWER HEIGHTS TRANSLATING INTO LOWER TEMPERATURES.

This something we are going to watch very carefully for any development and the Nam just strands it out in the ocean for a while which could be a flooding issue:

A couple of models have been indicating that a possible storm could develop over the next couple of days and head towards the western gulf coast. This storm has attracted the attention of many over on the general discussion thread, but I thought it would be a good idea to start a separate thread.

NAM:



CMC:



Euro:




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html


Seems like this will be something that we really need to keep an eye on for potential development and potential flooding problems.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
251 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RATHER POTENT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP FETCH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO TAKE AIM ON THE TEXAS COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALSO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
SAT/SUN. THE ECMWF...GFS AND CAN SHOW THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOICATED
WEAKNESS ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z ECMWF/CAN ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF DISPLACING THE PRECIP TOWARD LOUISIANA...WHILE
THE GFS PLACES THE GREATEST RAINFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST. THE
ECMWF/CAN HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CONSISTENCY AND PREFER THE MORE
STABLE GFS. THE GFS SHOWS PW VALUES OF 2.4 TO 2.6 INCHES AND A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THR COAST. IF THE GFS PANS OUT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH A SHARP QPF
GRADIENT. COULD SEE EXCESSIVE RAIN AT THE COAST AND LESS THAN AN
INCH OF RAIN WELL INLAND. WHICHEVER SUITE OF MODELS IS
CORRECT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND LOWER HEIGHTS TRANSLATING INTO LOWER TEMPERATURES. 43

Ed Mahmoud wrote:18Z NAM solution would keep all the rain offshore.

The rain was done at my place by the time Humberto was declared. A TC that forms SE of here might not be the best thing for my lawn.

Lucky for you, nobody cares about the NAM after 36

Mr. T wrote:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:18Z NAM solution would keep all the rain offshore.

The rain was done at my place by the time Humberto was declared. A TC that forms SE of here might not be the best thing for my lawn.

Lucky for you, nobody cares about the NAM after 36

lol

Hey I'm a certified model lover but I've never seen one of the worst models (tropically speaking) being used so much as the NAM has been this year.

Not picking on you Ed, just overall across the boards I keep seeing it being used as a tropical reference.

Scott747 wrote:

Mr. T wrote:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:18Z NAM solution would keep all the rain offshore.

The rain was done at my place by the time Humberto was declared. A TC that forms SE of here might not be the best thing for my lawn.

Lucky for you, nobody cares about the NAM after 36

lol

Hey I'm a certified model lover but I've never seen one of the worst models (tropically speaking) being used so much as the NAM has been this year.

Not picking on you Ed, just overall across the boards I keep seeing it being used as a tropical reference.

Yea I post it myself at times. I think many including myself just post it to look at all models. Most of the time i post FWIW but it is always good to know what every model is thinking even if it is a bad tropical model.

I'll be very interested in what the 00Z runs offer tonight. Worrisome pattern for some folks regarding potential rainfall for part of TX and LA.

This should be an interesting week. If that disturbance forms in the Gulf of Mexico, it would probably be TD8 and possibly Fiona. Regardless, we could be seeing heavy rain and floods.

WOW! What a change. Anyone still bored with this season? I have ten browser windows open now just to
monitor all of the activity.

The Gulf has been kinda disturbed for a few days now. I knew it was only a matter of time. We are entering a pattern change now that could effect the northwestern and western gulf more than we have been seeing as of late. My place needs rain, big time. We all may get more rain than we need over the coming days.

I absolutely love the last shot before sundown, when there's convection in the gulf.
Complete 3-D.