August 2022

[davidiowx]

Yes….Neil Frank, Harold Taft, Roy Leep, James Spann, Pat Prokop, John Hope…all some of the best OCMs.

Dave Schwartz was always a riot - especially on a late Fri or Sat night.

So it’s 95 degrees here. How is that not unstable enough to kick-off some storms? Unbelievable.

Lack of lift with the boundary washing out. There’s still a “spin” but that’s about it. Typical SE Texas luck this year. We will probably get all our rain at once

[jasons2k]

Yes….Neil Frank, Harold Taft, Roy Leep, James Spann, Pat Prokop, John Hope…all some of the best OCMs.

Dave Schwartz was always a riot - especially on a late Fri or Sat night.

So it’s 95 degrees here. How is that not unstable enough to kick-off some storms? Unbelievable.

Lack of lift with the boundary washing out. There’s still a “spin” but that’s about it. Typical SE Texas luck this year. We will probably get all our rain at once

Yes, true, but we were supposed to get a “series of upper level disturbances” to keep things going through Thursday. In typical SE Texas fashion when one ingredient collapses, they all do.

[Cromagnum]

Yes….Neil Frank, Harold Taft, Roy Leep, James Spann, Pat Prokop, John Hope…all some of the best OCMs.

Dave Schwartz was always a riot - especially on a late Fri or Sat night.

So it’s 95 degrees here. How is that not unstable enough to kick-off some storms? Unbelievable.

Lack of lift with the boundary washing out. There’s still a “spin” but that’s about it. Typical SE Texas luck this year. We will probably get all our rain at once

Yep. Likely to get all of it from the summer on opening week of dove season to wash everything out.

[Stratton20]

We really need to watch the GOM next week, both. EPS and the latest GEFS (18z) guidance have some sort of tropical system entering the GOM towards late next week, and the GEFS has quite a few strong members showing a major hurricane, something to keep a close eye on

[Cpv17]

Yes….Neil Frank, Harold Taft, Roy Leep, James Spann, Pat Prokop, John Hope…all some of the best OCMs.

Dave Schwartz was always a riot - especially on a late Fri or Sat night.

So it’s 95 degrees here. How is that not unstable enough to kick-off some storms? Unbelievable.

Lack of lift with the boundary washing out. There’s still a “spin” but that’s about it. Typical SE Texas luck this year. We will probably get all our rain at once

Yep. Likely to get all of it from the summer on opening week of dove season to wash everything out.

I think we’re gonna start seeing the radar fill in more as the evening hours progress into the overnight hours.

[Cpv17]

Pretty good storm getting going just a few miles to my south.

[DoctorMu]

Folks, it's just back to "normal" weather for this time of year. Chance (20-50%) of showers nearly every day. High PW. Warm Gulf inflow. Poisson distribution of rain. The average works out, but there will be significant heterogeneity of rain fall. A remnant front will be a trigger, but mostly, its seabreeze + daytime heating + no longer a ridge or cap.

Compared with this summer, I'm just going to sit back and enjoy! We're days away from college football season.

The tropics have been awfully quiet. They could explode any day now.

[Cpv17]

Just picked up half an inch here!

[Andrew]

We need to keep an eye on the tropics for next week. I don't necessarily buy the fast development the GFS shows across the Eastern Caribbean, but both the EPS and GEFS indicate some sort of tropical wave could make it into the gulf by the middle/late part of next week. Nothing too concerning yet but we are near/at peak hurricane season (especially for this region).

[Scott747]

Well... Mr. iCylone and myself have been half *** chatting about a potential Caribbean system the last day or so that could be in a position to enter the gulf. Now we're both getting even more intrigued.

Go figure it's again the ICON leading the way....

Are you referring to the system the GFS has entering the GOM north of Cuba on 9/1.

Correct. We started casting a wary eye on it a few days back when the ICON was hinting at something. Then it was popping up on the background of the HWRF for 90l. Last night the Euro was showing the energy making it to the NW Caribbean.

Over the last 24 hrs steering in the medium range has started to get progressively more w. Enough that 'if' something were to form the general heading would be to the w or wnw towards either the eastern gulf or the yucatan. Of course tomorrow at this time the mid range steering could completely switch to ots.

Operational GFS has joined all the other guidance with its 6z run and general steering. For now we should ignore the strength of the gfs.

ICON and Euro including ensembles are still rather weak but with similar guidance towards the w and nw Caribbean. I'd guess we'll get an invest inside of 48hrs if guidance continues to suggest something.

[Cpv17]

If it can at least maintain itself till the western Caribbean it’ll have a much better chance at developing more than likely. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles favor Mexico or Texas. The faster it develops the more northerly of a component it could have.

[tireman4]

Back home....

00
FXUS64 KHGX 240827
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
327 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tomorrow Night)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Weak/diffuse frontal boundary should be situated across the northern
1/3 of the CWA today. Deep Gulf moisture with PW`s in the 2.2-2.5"
range will be pooling along and south of this feature. Combined with
heating and subtle impulses embedded in the flow aloft, this should
bring good chances for shra/tstms across parts of the region
today...particularly south of a Livingston-Columbus line. Steering
flow is very weak. In addition, potential is there for some training
with disturbances generally riding parallel to the frontal boundary.
Will need to keep a close eye on things...as efficient rain rates
are anticipated given the moisture profile. It looks like one of
those days where a swath of 0.5-1.0" accumulations will be the norm
across southern parts described above, but with some very localized
2-5" mixed in if and where any clustering/training occurs. Grounds
should be able to handle a good amount of precip...just not the 2-
3"+/hr rates which would cause some street flooding. Will handle
this potential by adding the mention of locally heavy rainfall into
the fcst/grids for now.

Looking for rains to mostly taper off toward evening, followed by
some regeneration later tonight closer to the coast. Parameters for
Thurs look about the same as today, but llvl boundary will probably
set up a touch further south...so axis of better rain chances should
follow (maybe I-10 to the coast assuming no significant mesoscale
disruptions in the meantime).

47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Spoiler: Wet weather persists through the long term.

A weak upper level low will be hanging around the northwest Gulf
Friday through Tuesday which combined with PWATs near 2 inches
will lead to continued chance of precipitation. Generally the best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the morning
through late afternoon hours with coverage shrinking during the
overnight periods. Through the start of next week, the best chance
for precipitation will be along and south of I-10, but exactly
where the storms develop will be driven by mesoscale features (sea
breeze, out flows, etc.) that can`t be predicted this far out. On
average, expect up to 1 to 2 inches of rain through Monday with
the chance for locally higher or lower amounts. There may be a
pattern change as we get towards the end of the long term as a
slow boundary moves in from the north. Exact timing on this is
uncertain, but should happen Wednesday or Thursday - and it would
continue the wet weather we have been in for the last week or so.

Temperatures through the long term will be quite stable with
afternoon highs in the low 90s and overnight lows in the mid to
upper 70s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

See short term for general fcst reasoning. Shra/tstm chances should
be on the high side for terminals CXO southward today. VFR
conditions will generally prevail outside of the stronger
cells/rainfall. Reduced visibilities and MVFR cigs in/near any
stronger cells.

47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Moderate onshore flow of around 10 knots with wave heights between
2 and 3 feet will persist through the weekend. The flow may
increase to near 15 knots during the overnight periods, so small
craft may need to exercise caution. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will persist into next week with locally gusty winds
and higher seas will occur near stronger storms.

Fowler


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 20
Houston (IAH) 89 76 91 75 / 70 40 60 40
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 91 80 / 70 60 60 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Fowler

[jasons2k]

So the rain skipped over most of us yesterday and went coastal today. Remember a few days ago when the forecasts were for the central counties to be a “collision zone” for us to get the most rain? SMH.

[redneckweather]

It's amazing how just a week and half ago the landscape in my next of the woods was completely scorched and brown. As of now you can't even tell we were suffering from a drought. Everything is lush, deep green and I need to mow in a bad way.

[snowman65]

I know its a long way off, and its the GFS...still

[Cpv17]

I know its a long way off, and its the GFS...still

I wouldn’t be surprised if it just stays weak and crashes into Belize and then Mexico.

[djmike]

Storms are all south and east of us. Hopefully the showers will fill in along the boundary to our northwest.

[Cpv17]

It’s absolutely pouring here in El Campo. Been coming down hard now for a good 15 minutes. But of course we’re not getting anything at my house.

[Cromagnum]

Had a brief very heavy downpour in Rosharon. Looks like the train is stacking up behind it.

[jasons2k]

Regarding the Atlantic/Caribbean system:

I’ve always been more concerned about this system developing in the long term rather than the short term. It’s not unusual for these waves to be a sleeper until it gets to the Western Caribbean.