I was stuck in another donut hole for most of the morning. No screen shots because I had left my phone in my wife's vehicle. Anyway, this went on for hours but it felt like months. Finally, I got some moderate rain at the house but I missed the heavy stuff again. I got 0.44"
Not bad but still seeking out that soaker. Things may be aligning for that to "finally" happen but I don't want to jinx it.
August 2022
This came from Jeff Lindner at 4:27PM. My apologies for the delay - it's been a busy day...
NHC has begun advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone #4
Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for the western Gulf coast from Boca de Catan, MX to Port Mansfield, TX including the southern Laguna Madre.
Discussion:
USAF plane investigating 99L this afternoon was unable to close off a defined low level circulation and instead found mainly southeast winds with very weak winds on the southwest edge of the large mass of deep convection. IR Satellite Loop for Invest 99L | Tropical Tidbits It is possible that a low level center may form near the southwest edge of the thunderstorms where the plane found weak winds, or a new low level circulation to develop further to the northeast closer to the deep thunderstorms and the mid level circulation. The plane did find an area of 25-30kt winds well to the northeast of the weak wind field near the active thunderstorms.
Track:
The system is generally moving toward the NW at around 15mph on the southwestern edge of a mid level high pressure ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and this motion is expected to continue through the next 24-36 hours bringing the center ashore near the northeast coast of Mexico just south of the Rio Grande River. While there is some uncertainty in exactly where a low level center will form there is fairly high confidence on a general NW track through 48 hours and the guidance cluster is showing little spread.
Intensity:
The system is in favorable conditions for development with light vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and good upper level outflow to the north, south, and east. Additionally, developing tropical systems in this part of the Gulf of Mexico tend to have some help in developing due to the shape of the coastline which can help tighten a developing low level circulation. 99L is expected to make landfall as a 45mph tropical storm in 24 hours, although most guidance keeps the system in the 35-40mph range and the system will only have about 24 hours over the water. Tropical storm conditions may extend as far north as deep southern Texas depending on exactly where the center eventually forms.
It is likely 99L will become absorbed into the incoming low pressure and frontal system over Texas early next week and this may help to enhance already high forecasted rainfall amounts.
Is that a good or bad thing Jason?
Next week is looking mighty interesting. Btw I’ve gotten 2.8” since yesterday. Amazing!jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 6:36 pm I was stuck in another donut hole for most of the morning. No screen shots because I had left my phone in my wife's vehicle. Anyway, this went on for hours but it felt like months. Finally, I got some moderate rain at the house but I missed the heavy stuff again. I got 0.44"
Not bad but still seeking out that soaker. Things may be aligning for that to "finally" happen but I don't want to jinx it.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
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- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 yup, Euro has some pretty big totals for next week
I had a nice donut hole yesterday and was feeling pretty blah about it thinking the atmosphere was worked over after those storms. Woke up this morning and it started pouring around 7:15am and ended up with 2.02” today! Hallelujah!
Well north of huntsville still sitting at 0.04. My dust is still safe from being mud. Glad to hear other people good luck.
I was just north of Huntsville the past couple days in Lovelady for work and it rained pretty good there yesterday late in the afternoon.
Its all around but keep missing my area. Glad to see 60 percent pretty much all week. Some point it's going to mess up. What's everyone feeling on how TS going to effect the week?
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0808
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022
Areas affected...far southeast TX & southwest LA
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 201208Z - 201708Z
Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage over the next several hours. Hourly rain totals to 2.5"
with local amounts to 5" are possible through 1700 UTC/Noon CDT.
Discussion...Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are beginning to form between Galveston County and
southwest LA. This coincides with where a slight maximum in the
850 hPa wind intersects a weak surface convergence zone/dew point
gradient. ML CAPE values are highest between Galveston and Port
Arthur, 2500+ J/kg. Effective bulk shear is weak, explaining the
pulse nature of the activity. The 850 hPa flow slightly exceeds
the mean 850-400 hPa flow, which could aid rainfall efficiency.
Both Galvez-Davison instability index values and their increasing
magnitude imply increasing convective coverage this morning in
this region. Should thunderstorm coverage increase enough, the
surface boundary could back southward towards the coastline. The
mesoscale guidance shows a broadening heavy rain signal across
this area through 1700 UTC, after which ML CAPE should overspread
the area due to daytime heating and convection should be less tied
to the low-level dew point gradient as whatever lingering
low-level convergence should be pushing inland as a sea breeze
front or outflow boundary. The degree of moisture and instability
available supports hourly rain totals to 2.5" There is some
signal for 5"+ totals, mostly due to HRRR guidance. Cell mergers
would be the main reason for the higher totals, given the weak
effective bulk shear. Areas most sensitive would urban or where
heavy rain fell a couple days ago across portions of the MPD area.
Flash flooding in this area is expected to be isolated in nature.
Roth
ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...
ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 30699335 30589197 29979147 29509142 29479207
29659307 29719354 29359445 28919539 29559526
30239463
I think I need a new weather station. I just emptied the old reliable cylinder gauge and it had 1.02" in it from the last two days (Thu/Fri). Not a bad start. The plants and the trees are starting to look much better.
Same. I watched rain water dripping From my trees and realized they were simply crying tears of joy.
When I woke up the NWS had me at a 70% chance of rain - just got cut down to 50%.
Last edited by jasons2k on Sat Aug 20, 2022 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
From HGX this morning regarding next week.
LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday...
The area is still on track for an increasingly wet pattern during the
upcoming week as a series of disturbances edge slowly eastward across
the state. Generally expect to see high rain chances and the risk of
locally heavy rainfall and associated increasing potential for river/
creek/bayou flooding to spread from north to south as the week progresses.
Persistently very high precipitable water values along with a generally
divergent flow aloft will be supportive of periods of showers and
thunderstorms and a locally heavy rainfall threat almost every day
for some part or parts of Southeast Texas, so it is probably a good
idea to stay updated with the latest forecast as the week progresses
to see which day or days might end up being impacted for your location.
Rainfall rates could easily reach or exceed 2 to 4 inches per hour with
the stronger and/or slower moving and/or training storms, and having
a day or two of this scenario could easily end up boosting six day
rainfall totals well above 5 inches for some spots.
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TexasBreeze
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- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
It is still early and the radar is starting to light up. Things will be more scattered than the past 2 days though.
The global models overnight have cut back on totals for our area but I wouldn’t really put too much stock into that. I’m paying more attention to the short-range mesoscale models. Tomorrow looks more interesting than today.
The lightning here is insane. Right on the edge of a nice cell.
I had a downpour for literally about 10 seconds. It blew up the second it passed my house.