August 2022

[Stratton20]

widespread 3-5 inches for SE Texas!

[bdog38]

i see rotation

[walsean1]

That BLOB sure looks extra juicy!

Is it possible that the NWS marks this as a spot. This is the second day in a row that we seen Thunderstorms convection explode with consistency?

[Stratton20]

walsean1 I dont think they will because this disturbance will be moving in land some time tomorrow

[DoctorMu]

Lots of thunderstorm activity out there:

Yeah, it's helping the sea breeze as well.

Those old fronts in the Gulf...

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 like that euro run!

I like this one even more:



12z Euro.

Although I do think areas further north will end up getting more than that.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 gotta watch that though, would be some nice rains, could be a flooding setup though

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 gotta watch that though, would be some nice rains, could be a flooding setup though

Yep. Check out the 18z HRRR.

[Cromagnum]

Suppose to go to 2 concerts at Cynthia Woods next weekend. Looks like that's going to be a disaster.

[Stratton20]

Lol 18z GFS with the phantom cat 4 moving in just north of Brownsville around labor day, it just refuses to give up

[tireman4]

Suppose to go to 2 concerts at Cynthia Woods next weekend. Looks like that's going to be a disaster.

Me too, Megadeth ..September 2 .

[Cpv17]

Lol 18z GFS with the phantom cat 4 moving in just north of Brownsville around labor day, it just refuses to give up

I still think it’s worth keeping an eye on.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 Agreed, ive never seen a model be alone in support yet be this insistent that something will be their, this will be either a huge L by the GFS or an incredible Win for the moxel, granted the NAVGEM also has a similar idea as the GFS, just weaker and obvit not a great model, this consistently has been showing for a week now, boom or bust for the GFS here

[cperk]

Cpv17 Agreed, ive never seen a model be alone in support yet be this insistent that something will be their, this will be either a huge L by the GFS or an incredible Win for the moxel, granted the NAVGEM also has a similar idea as the GFS, just weaker and obvit not a great model, this consistently has been showing for a week now, boom or bust for the GFS here

Stratton in 3 or 4 days we are gonna find out if the GFS is out to lunch like many think.

[Stratton20]

cperk yup! Its either a massive bust or a huge W for the GFS, but I counted the model runs in a row that have shown this kind of a solution, 19 straight model runs from the GFS, absolutely crazy

[cperk]

The Euro and the Icon have similar solutions for that system colored in orange both have it west of south Florida around 9/6 to 9/7.

[cperk]

cperk yup! Its either a massive bust or a huge W for the GFS, but I counted the model runs in a row that have shown this kind of a solution, 19 straight model runs from the GFS, absolutely crazy

That is crazy.

[Stratton20]

I know its a sh*t model but the 12z NAVGEM although weaker, does have a similar solution. to the GFS, so I guess the GFS isn’t completely alone lol

[cperk]

I know its a sh*t model but the 12z NAVGEM although weaker, does have a similar solution. to the GFS, so I guess the GFS isn’t completely alone lol

Similar set up as the Euro and the Icon speaking of the storm south of Florida.

[Cpv17]

I know its a sh*t model but the 12z NAVGEM although weaker, does have a similar solution. to the GFS, so I guess the GFS isn’t completely alone lol

Similar set up as the Euro and the Icon speaking of the storm south of Florida.

It’s quite possible that Invest 91L gets trapped under a ridge and gets shunted off w or sw towards the northern Caribbean or SFL. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it gets into the Gulf. That’s why I’ve been saying it has my attention more than the potential Caribbean system. Mainly because it has a lot more model support and a higher chance for development.