August 2022

[SLM87TX]

Its all around but keep missing my area. Glad to see 60 percent pretty much all week. Some point it's going to mess up. What's everyone feeling on how TS going to effect the week?

[869MB]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0808
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Areas affected...far southeast TX & southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201208Z - 201708Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage over the next several hours. Hourly rain totals to 2.5"
with local amounts to 5" are possible through 1700 UTC/Noon CDT.

Discussion...Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are beginning to form between Galveston County and
southwest LA. This coincides with where a slight maximum in the
850 hPa wind intersects a weak surface convergence zone/dew point
gradient. ML CAPE values are highest between Galveston and Port
Arthur, 2500+ J/kg. Effective bulk shear is weak, explaining the
pulse nature of the activity. The 850 hPa flow slightly exceeds
the mean 850-400 hPa flow, which could aid rainfall efficiency.

Both Galvez-Davison instability index values and their increasing
magnitude imply increasing convective coverage this morning in
this region. Should thunderstorm coverage increase enough, the
surface boundary could back southward towards the coastline. The
mesoscale guidance shows a broadening heavy rain signal across
this area through 1700 UTC, after which ML CAPE should overspread
the area due to daytime heating and convection should be less tied
to the low-level dew point gradient as whatever lingering
low-level convergence should be pushing inland as a sea breeze
front or outflow boundary. The degree of moisture and instability
available supports hourly rain totals to 2.5" There is some
signal for 5"+ totals, mostly due to HRRR guidance. Cell mergers
would be the main reason for the higher totals, given the weak
effective bulk shear. Areas most sensitive would urban or where
heavy rain fell a couple days ago across portions of the MPD area.
Flash flooding in this area is expected to be isolated in nature.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30699335 30589197 29979147 29509142 29479207
29659307 29719354 29359445 28919539 29559526
30239463

[jasons2k]

I think I need a new weather station. I just emptied the old reliable cylinder gauge and it had 1.02" in it from the last two days (Thu/Fri). Not a bad start. The plants and the trees are starting to look much better.

[Pas_Bon]

I think I need a new weather station. I just emptied the old reliable cylinder gauge and it had 1.02" in it from the last two days (Thu/Fri). Not a bad start. The plants and the trees are starting to look much better.

Same. I watched rain water dripping From my trees and realized they were simply crying tears of joy.

[jasons2k]

When I woke up the NWS had me at a 70% chance of rain - just got cut down to 50%.

[don]

From HGX this morning regarding next week.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday...

The area is still on track for an increasingly wet pattern during the
upcoming week as a series of disturbances edge slowly eastward across
the state. Generally expect to see high rain chances and the risk of
locally heavy rainfall and associated increasing potential for river/
creek/bayou flooding to spread from north to south as the week progresses.
Persistently very high precipitable water values along with a generally
divergent flow aloft will be supportive of periods of showers and
thunderstorms and a locally heavy rainfall threat almost every day
for some part or parts of Southeast Texas, so it is probably a good
idea to stay updated with the latest forecast as the week progresses
to see which day or days might end up being impacted for your location.
Rainfall rates could easily reach or exceed 2 to 4 inches per hour with
the stronger and/or slower moving and/or training storms, and having
a day or two of this scenario could easily end up boosting six day
rainfall totals well above 5 inches for some spots.

[TexasBreeze]

It is still early and the radar is starting to light up. Things will be more scattered than the past 2 days though.

[Cpv17]

The global models overnight have cut back on totals for our area but I wouldn’t really put too much stock into that. I’m paying more attention to the short-range mesoscale models. Tomorrow looks more interesting than today.

[jasons2k]

The lightning here is insane. Right on the edge of a nice cell.

[jasons2k]

I had a downpour for literally about 10 seconds. It blew up the second it passed my house.

[djmike]

Miss Gulf Blob is running out of time to become Miss Danielle of the year. Her performance and talent have been meh…Yesterday’s runway track showed she would be the winner by now but still a no go. Who here thinks that the judges will call it before she arrives to the big US of A? OR…will her closing extravaganza performance be during the week when she showers us with all her love? Thoughts?

[Stratton20]

It will run out of time , too close to land now, though we might have to watch the GOM again later next week/ weekend

[djmike]

Is the moisture from the tropical system supposed to get entrained across the decaying front across Texas or where is all this potential heavy rain supposed to come from? And what days would be the main event? TIA

[Stratton20]

djmike yep moisture from 99L will get tugged north into Texas, and that will combine with an area of Low pressure expected to form over North Texas, then. that low will slowly move across the state, id say in the monday-thursday time frame next week fro potential heavy rain, models differ on where the heaviest rain will fall and the strength / track of the low, we just got watch and see how this evolves

[DoctorMu]

Spotty showers around in this tropical surge of moisture. There's a cell near Brenham that could drop some additional rain. Nice to see some green around for a change...and even better the sprinklers turned off - maybe for awhile?

[jasons2k]

Latest round of cells fell apart on my doorstep again. Can it just dump for once? Geez.

[DoctorMu]

We have another shower. Light, but anything to keep the sprinklers off and A/C getting some rest. It is truly a story of feast or famine.

[TexasBreeze]

Better get all of the rain we can get this week before the spigot shuts off due to what's possibly looking like south eastern US/recurving tropical systems moving through. The gfs has 2 of them.

[Stratton20]

TexasBreeze nope, What the GFS is showing is impossible and defies physics in meteorology and thats at hour 384, any thing beyond 10 days in that model means little to nothing, this wet weather pattern is here to stay

[Cpv17]

TexasBreeze nope, What the GFS is showing is impossible, and thats at hour 384, any thing beyond 10 days in that model means little to nothing, this wet weather pattern is here to stay

Yep, I agree! The SOI is tanking and the blocking over the NW is a good signal for us!