tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 10:31 am
Maybe this just me, but it was a little odd that HGX did not give the AFD in the 12 noon hour. They waited until 3:45 to give it. ( They normally will give a 12 and a 3 ish. Just odd.
I saw that. I also don’t understand this new thing of saying what was updated in the header, then they copy/paste the entire discussion and you have scroll and hunt for the relevant changes.
It was so much simpler when the updates were that and only that - just the update. This new process is whack.
Well 57 doesn’t really seem the least bit worried about it. He’s basically saying this is just a phantom storm the models are showing. Me personally, I don’t agree with that but I’m just an amateur.
Cpv17 I have to disagree with that as well, maybe not as strong, but its not just the GFS operational showing the potential for a really strong system, EPS and GEFS members have some stronger solutions as well
tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 10:31 am
Maybe this just me, but it was a little odd that HGX did not give the AFD in the 12 noon hour. They waited until 3:45 to give it. ( They normally will give a 12 and a 3 ish. Just odd.
I saw that. I also don’t understand this new thing of saying what was updated in the header, then they copy/paste the entire discussion and you have scroll and hunt for the relevant changes.
It was so much simpler when the updates were that and only that - just the update. This new process is whack.
Maybe they are tired of complete write ups? Tired fingers? LOL
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 11:02 am
Well 57 doesn’t really seem the least bit worried about it. He’s basically saying this is just a phantom storm the models are showing. Me personally, I don’t agree with that but I’m just an amateur.
When i visit storm2k i don't bother to read any of his post.
In regard to WxMan 57, who many of us know personally (me included, as he picks on my FB posts), he does know his stuff. He has forgotten more than I will ever know about Meteorology (especially Tropical). Back in the day, he nailed the Ike landing in Galveston. Does he miss things? Yes. Has he gotten forecasts wrong? Absolutely. Do I trust his forecasts? Yes, without a doubt. This is just my opinion. YMMV (Your Mileage May Vary)
tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 11:28 am
In regard to WxMan 57, who many of us know personally (me included, as he picks on my FB posts), he does know his stuff. He has forgotten more than I will ever know about Meteorology (especially Tropical). Back in the day, he nailed the Ike landing in Galveston. Does he miss things? Yes. Has he gotten forecasts wrong? Absolutely. Do I trust his forecasts? Yes, without a doubt. This is just my opinion. YMMV (Your Mileage May Vary)
No one is questioning his knowledge,but his i'm right and you're wrong attitude sucks given the fact that sometimes he blows a forecast.
Folks, picking on wxman is a bit unfair considering most meteorologist follow model guidance. That is what he does. That is what he is paid to do. Throwing out weather God titles is a bit of a stretch. When it comes to tropical mischief it is important to live in the day and not rely on long term forecasting from anyone. Certainly not more than a couple or three days. Can we get back to the moment without bashing folks over their "skills"?
biggerbyte wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 12:00 pm
Folks, picking on wxman is a bit unfair considering most meteorologist follow model guidance. That is what he does. That is what he is paid to do. Throwing out weather God titles is a bit of a stretch. When it comes to tropical mischief it is important to live in the day and not rely on long term forecasting from anyone. Certainly not more than a couple or three days. Can we get back to the moment without bashing folks over their "skills"?
Please bother to read my post i started by saying no one is questioning his knowledge.
tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 11:28 am
In regard to WxMan 57, who many of us know personally (me included, as he picks on my FB posts), he does know his stuff. He has forgotten more than I will ever know about Meteorology (especially Tropical). Back in the day, he nailed the Ike landing in Galveston. Does he miss things? Yes. Has he gotten forecasts wrong? Absolutely. Do I trust his forecasts? Yes, without a doubt. This is just my opinion. YMMV (Your Mileage May Vary)
No one is questioning his knowledge,but his i'm right and you're wrong attitude sucks given the fact that sometimes he blows a forecast.
I will say this, if you know him personally, he is a lot of "tongue in cheek" with his personality. He has a sharp wit and zany sense of humor. Believe me, I have gotten it over the years. LOL. I think that how he might come across on S2K.
12z GFS still has a borderline hurricane in the western gulf but gets shoced into mexico, still 10.5 days out, but the model has shown the western gulf looks like the potential target area for this disturbance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 12:17 pm
12z GFS still has a borderline hurricane in the western gulf but gets shoced into mexico, still 10.5 days out, but the model has shown the western gulf looks like the potential target area for this disturbance
Yeah the GFS has been windshield wiping but has stayed with the GOM as the area of landfall.
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 11:02 am
Well 57 doesn’t really seem the least bit worried about it. He’s basically saying this is just a phantom storm the models are showing. Me personally, I don’t agree with that but I’m just an amateur.
That’s not at all how I interpreted his posts this morning. Yes he said the GFS run is crap but his comment was in reference to the model not the potential for a late developing storm.
You have to read all of his comments to paint the picture sometimes.
He also jacks with people too so take some of what he says with a grain of salt.
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 11:02 am
Well 57 doesn’t really seem the least bit worried about it. He’s basically saying this is just a phantom storm the models are showing. Me personally, I don’t agree with that but I’m just an amateur.
That’s not at all how I interpreted his posts this morning. Yes he said the GFS run is crap but his comment was in reference to the model not the potential for a late developing storm.
You have to read all of his comments to paint the picture sometimes.
He also jacks with people too so take some of what he says with a grain of salt.
He is planning to be working Labor Day weekend
He said the ensemble members that send this further north aren’t from this storm. He said they’re from another piece of energy the GFS has which he doesn’t believe will be there. The way I took it, it seems like the ensembles that send this further south are from this area of interest and the ones that send it closer to us are from some phantom piece of energy. I wasn’t trying to start anything. I was just trying to interpret what I perceived and bring it on here.
I don’t think he believes this plows into Nicaragua based on his previous comments, so the 2nd vorticity depicted on the GFS is a non-issue. Yes, a phantom, but the problem with the GFS is before we even get that far in the run….it’s junk.
