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Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:12 pm
by weatherguy425
Re: Gulf Low

The UKMET is also hinting at the possibility of an area of low pressure detaching from the stalled front and heading northwest or westward. Just something to casually watch.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:41 pm
by Cpv17
weatherguy425 wrote: Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:12 pm Re: Gulf Low

The UKMET is also hinting at the possibility of an area of low pressure detaching from the stalled front and heading northwest or westward. Just something to casually watch.
I just looked at the 12z Euro. It looks like it has a lot of vorticity headed this way by the weekend.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:48 pm
by weatherguy425
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:41 pm
weatherguy425 wrote: Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:12 pm Re: Gulf Low

The UKMET is also hinting at the possibility of an area of low pressure detaching from the stalled front and heading northwest or westward. Just something to casually watch.
I just looked at the 12z Euro. It looks like it has a lot of vorticity headed this way by the weekend.
ECMWF/GFS are still very unexcited about it; weak troughing moves through if taken verbatim. It’ll help boost the chance of rain regardless.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:03 pm
by Stratton20
I dont trust any sort of vorticity that gets over the gulf as their is plenty of energy to tap into, we are almost in september without a GOM system( named), dont think that will last

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:08 pm
by Cromagnum
Lot of time left before the fall cold fronts start barreling down to protect the gulf coast. We even made it all the way to October with Hurricane Delta in 2020.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:18 pm
by don
These downpours are very tropical today, very efficient rain producers.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:27 pm
by Dls2010r
I’m in the Fe. I’m over the rain!! Ugh!!!

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:33 pm
by Cpv17
Dls2010r wrote: Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:27 pm I’m in the Fe. I’m over the rain!! Ugh!!!
This is just the beginning. We have a lot more coming over the next couple weeks.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:41 pm
by Cpv17
The 18z HRRR looks interesting out in the Gulf. This is 48 hours from now:

Image

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:47 pm
by Stratton20
Cov17 noticed that as well, maybe a little but of spin in there as well

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:50 pm
by tireman4
Always, this time of year, be ever watchful to the Gulf.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:58 pm
by don
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:41 pm The 18z HRRR looks interesting out in the Gulf. This is 48 hours from now:
Yep,that system showed up on the HRRR's 12Z run also.Its the same system the global models are starting to sniff out.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:10 pm
by jasons2k
Still not getting the rain. Just on the edge, again. Lucy is trolling me big-time today.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:16 pm
by cperk
Just picked up another 1.42 inches.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:42 pm
by Cpv17
From what I’m seeing for tomorrow, I think some Flash Flood Watches might be warranted for part of the area.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 5:29 pm
by cperk
Wow 3.32 inches and still raining lightly.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 5:51 pm
by jasons2k
Sitting at a paltry 0.16”

Typical. Once again the west side of Imperial Oaks got slammed, probably over an inch, easy, and I get sprinkles.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 5:58 pm
by don
There are several swaths of 2-4 inches of rain today along the 59 corridor.

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 6:00 pm
by davidiowx
3.10” and still counting (albeit pretty light rain now) today at my house! Jackpot!

Re: August 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 6:14 pm
by Pas_Bon
jasons2k wrote: Mon Aug 29, 2022 5:51 pm Sitting at a paltry 0.16”

Typical. Once again the west side of Imperial Oaks got slammed, probably over an inch, easy, and I get sprinkles.
At this point, you just need to move