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I got 0.07” in the last hour or so with the sun out lol. Just enough to make a humid evening with no wind. Bleh

After yet another day with rain showers and thundershowers dissipating as they moved toward my neighborhood, I decided to do a little auditing and compare this year with 2011 with respect to rainfall totals. And as I expected, my general area is running ahead of 2011's totals, but disturbingly, not by much. For some reason, the closest site to my neighborhood reflected 0.00 in 2011 as annotated below. Still, the other sites close to me are representative of my neighborhood which was probably somewhere between 9.00 inches and 10.00 inches in 2011. So as far as my particular neighborhood is concerned, this year is very comparable to 2011 with respect to overall rainfall totals.

So in essence, this year appeared to have presented more opportunities for rainfall as compared to 2011, but many of those forecasted rainfall events either didn't provide me much relief or didn't materialize at all. The biggest difference between 2011 and now, is the weather pattern appears to be much more favorable for daily thundershowers for at least through the next 7 to 10 days. Whereas in 2011, this was the point of the summer where I got absolutely cooked and really got my "you know what" handed to me with back-to-back-to-back 100 Degree Days with rain chances just a mere mirage.


2011 Harris county rainfall totals from 12/31/2010 6PM to 8/06/2011 6PM:
2022 Harris County Rainfall totals from 12/31/2021 6PM to 8/06/2022 6PM:

869MB wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:15 pm After yet another day with rain showers and thundershowers dissipating as they moved toward my neighborhood, I decided to do a little auditing and compare this year with 2011 with respect to rainfall totals. And as I expected, my general area is running ahead of 2011's totals, but disturbingly, not by much. For some reason, the closest site to my neighborhood reflected 0.00 in 2011 as annotated below. Still, the other sites close to me are representative of my neighborhood which was probably somewhere between 9.00 inches and 10.00 inches in 2011. So as far as my particular neighborhood is concerned, this year is very comparable to 2011 with respect to overall rainfall totals.

So in essence, this year appeared to have presented more opportunities for rainfall as compared to 2011, but many of those forecasted rainfall events either didn't provide me much relief or didn't materialize at all. The biggest difference between 2011 and now, is the weather pattern appears to be much more favorable for daily thundershowers for at least through the next 7 to 10 days. Whereas in 2011, this was the point of the summer where I got absolutely cooked and really got my "you know what" handed to me with back-to-back-to-back 100 Degree Days with rain chances just a mere mirage.


2011 Harris county rainfall totals from 12/31/2010 6PM to 8/06/2011 6PM:
2011 HARRIS COUNTY RAINFALL TOTALS - From 12.31.2010 1800 to 8.06.2011 1800.png
download (3).png


2022 Harris County Rainfall totals from 12/31/2021 6PM to 8/06/2022 6PM:
2022 HARRIS COUNTY RAINFALL TOTALS - From 12.31.2021 1800 to 8.06.2022 1800.png
download (4).png

You are definitely right. This weather pattern we are currently in (not what we just experienced last month) is completely different compared to 2011. If this pattern continues, tropical impacts from something later this month or September are going to be increasingly probable. I'm not buying the lower threat for us yet. For the first time this evening, I noticed lots of building cumulonimbus just offshore. I remember observing before Laura hit Louisiana a couple years ago quite the lightning show over the Gulf. That was about 3-4 weeks before Laura. While I did not see any lightning this evening in the offshore thunderstorms, I noticed a storm in Louisiana had quite a bit of lightning after dark. Just a reminder to be prepared for something as we approach peak season.

Edit: Also, the gauges you mentioned that recorded 0 rain in 2011 were almost certainly clogged. That is too large of a rain difference and there was some rain in 2011 for everyone. Just not much unfortunately.

00z Icon with a weak depression/ tropical storm into The corpus area by next saturday

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:46 pm

869MB wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:15 pm After yet another day with rain showers and thundershowers dissipating as they moved toward my neighborhood, I decided to do a little auditing and compare this year with 2011 with respect to rainfall totals. And as I expected, my general area is running ahead of 2011's totals, but disturbingly, not by much. For some reason, the closest site to my neighborhood reflected 0.00 in 2011 as annotated below. Still, the other sites close to me are representative of my neighborhood which was probably somewhere between 9.00 inches and 10.00 inches in 2011. So as far as my particular neighborhood is concerned, this year is very comparable to 2011 with respect to overall rainfall totals.

So in essence, this year appeared to have presented more opportunities for rainfall as compared to 2011, but many of those forecasted rainfall events either didn't provide me much relief or didn't materialize at all. The biggest difference between 2011 and now, is the weather pattern appears to be much more favorable for daily thundershowers for at least through the next 7 to 10 days. Whereas in 2011, this was the point of the summer where I got absolutely cooked and really got my "you know what" handed to me with back-to-back-to-back 100 Degree Days with rain chances just a mere mirage.


2011 Harris county rainfall totals from 12/31/2010 6PM to 8/06/2011 6PM:
2011 HARRIS COUNTY RAINFALL TOTALS - From 12.31.2010 1800 to 8.06.2011 1800.png
download (3).png


2022 Harris County Rainfall totals from 12/31/2021 6PM to 8/06/2022 6PM:
2022 HARRIS COUNTY RAINFALL TOTALS - From 12.31.2021 1800 to 8.06.2022 1800.png
download (4).png

You are definitely right. This weather pattern we are currently in (not what we just experienced last month) is completely different compared to 2011. If this pattern continues, tropical impacts from something later this month or September are going to be increasingly probable. I'm not buying the lower threat for us yet. For the first time this evening, I noticed lots of building cumulonimbus just offshore. I remember observing before Laura hit Louisiana a couple years ago quite the lightning show over the Gulf. That was about 3-4 weeks before Laura. While I did not see any lightning this evening in the offshore thunderstorms, I noticed a storm in Louisiana had quite a bit of lightning after dark. Just a reminder to be prepared for something as we approach peak season.

Edit: Also, the gauges you mentioned that recorded 0 rain in 2011 were almost certainly clogged. That is too large of a rain difference and there was some rain in 2011 for everyone. Just not much unfortunately.

I didn't make note of that phenomenon before Hurricane Laura, but that's something I've always looked for over the years going into the 2nd and 3rd week of August because it usually signals a general weakness in the pattern that may offer a clue where an organized tropical system may attempt to head as the season progresses, everything else being equal.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:11 pm 00z Icon with a weak depression/ tropical storm into The corpus area by next saturday

So Stratton, tells us why we don't want this ICON run, or any other forecast model with this solution, to be correct with this prognostication?

869Mb actually we would want this to be correct, maybe come in a little further north though, a weak tropical system would bring widespread rain for most of SE Texas, granted this is just one model showing this solution, but this kind of scenario would be a really good for Texas

I hear you Stratton, but I was going to share my opinion back at the beginning of July when you first began to post some mid-term & long-term models that were initially showing a good moisture feed into Texas, and then eventually started forming a circulation of various strengths moving into the mid/upper TX Coastline. Of course, that rainfall forecast ended up being a significant bust for many outside of the immediate coastal areas/counties especially west of I-45.

After experiencing numerous busts over the years like the one many of us experienced back in early July, I realized over the years that I never want to see a closed circulation develop offshore during the summer months.

First of all, the good multi-day moisture feed initially forecasted to pour into Texas by computer models gets wrapped up around a center of circulation. Once you introduce a center of circulation, then usually some sort of moisture gradient develops around such circulation. This moisture gradient usually increases when the center of circulation intensifies. So now, I have to root for said circulation to make a trajectory that will still deliver a good feed of moisture to my particular neighborhood. Now my moisture feed has been delayed by a day or two because the moisture has wrapped around this center. Also with this moisture gradient, now other parts of Texas that may be in the need of rain may miss out if the storm's trajectory is wrong, ie. shifts NE off into SW Louisiana or shoved down into Northern MX, etc.

In addition, and most importantly, now I have to guard against said circulation finding last-minute "favorable conditions" while still over warm Gulf waters that may lead to a much stronger cyclone before making landfall that you or I probably don't want to deal with. Who wants to face an Alicia, Humberto, or Harvey repeat?

All of this is merely my opinion after watching many rainfall busts over the years while also watching a few other events morph into something a lot more serious than just a few inches of beneficial rain. I honestly was just too bored with our weather pattern to share all of this back in July before that last inland rainfall bust.

Good morning - thanks for posting that and excellent observations.

It's similar here. I can't get any rain right at the house but just a mile and a half down Robinson Road the grass is green, there is standing water in the ditches -- even the road itself was leaching water yesterday morning on the way to tennis. All because during the last two weeks they got-in on those storms that blew up the second the cloud passed me haha.

In 2011 there wasn't any moisture to be found, anywhere, until you crossed the Sabine. So the daily rain chances are certainly helping and will continue to do so, but the places that have missed out on the rain lotto so far really need at least one good replenishing shower to carry us through to the next one.

Next weekend looks interesting. Like 869MB pointed out, I would rather not see a closed low going-in near Corpus. We'd get robbed up here again.

Here is hoping to a very early fall that lasts until December. We need something to make up for the 2022 non winter, craptastic sprummer, and Dante's inferno.

A repeat of yesterday's split in the seabreeze and donut hole here in CLL.

Not sure about next weekend and any tropical mischief, but I do see consistently across the models is an upper level trough across SE Texas bringing scattered showers Thursday and Friday.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071954
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
254 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022


.SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]...

A few showers and storms were able to initiate along the sea breeze
this afternoon, but activity will quickly subside after sunset
tonight with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight
will be warm and humid and only cool to the upper 70s inland and low
80s near the coast.

Tomorrow, the overall synoptic pattern remains fairly similar.
Surface high pressure will remain over the Southern US and extend
into Southeast Texas. 850mb temps climb a few degrees and therefore
surface high temperatures climb a degree or two tomorrow as well.
Although subsidence aloft and a slightly stronger 850mb cap will be
in place on Monday, afternoon heating, low level moisture advection,
and lifting along the sea/bay breeze should still generate enough
instability to produce isolated showers and storms tomorrow
afternoon. Unfortunately, only areas south of Conroe will get 20-30%
PoPs in the afternoon since the best low level forcing will remain
near the sea/bay breeze and any resultant cold pool from collapsing
showers and storms. Once again, this convection will subside after
sunset and overnight lows will cool to the upper 70s to low 80s.

Walts


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

Typical summer-like pattern is expected, at least through
Wednesday with isolated coastal showers in the mornings and
scattered thunderstorms inland in the afternoon due to diurnal
heating and sea/bay breezes. Return flow from the sfc high to our
east (Southeastern CONUS) will continue to provide a continued and
persistent onshore flow over the Gulf and into the region after
Wednesday. PWAT values will increase at or above 2 inches, which
is near the 90 percent moving average, per sounding climatology
for early August standards. In addition to increasing moisture,
with the region positioned on the southeastern edge of the upper-
level ridge, it will have the influence of some weak and
progressive shortwaves moving westward along the flow. Therefore,
deep moisture combined with weak forcing will provide enough
dynamic for convection Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. The
best chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive
Thursday and Friday as an inverted mid to upper lvl trough tracks
west into the TX coast from north-central Gulf. Deterministic
models and most ensemble means are in better agreement and bring
this trough by Thursday. There is still some uncertainty in the
evolution and QPF amounts this far out. As of now, the main
message is that unsettled weather is expected towards the end of
the work week with periods of locally moderate to heavy rain. For
Saturday and beyond, diurnal convection will be possible each day
along the seabreeze and as different shortwaves embedded along the
ridge aloft move through the region.

Increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances will lead to
near to slightly above normal temperatures this week into the
weekend. Highs will generally be in the 90s and overnight lows
mainly from the mid to upper 70s.

05

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail. High pressure settling in overhead
will lead to a noticeable decrease in afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Showers will be very isolated south of CXO this
afternoon from 20-00Z. Shortly after sunset, any convection will
quickly dissipate. Winds will become light and variable overnight,
and some models are hinting at patchy fog north of IAH from
12-14Z, but held off mentioning it in TAFs for now. Early morning
coastal showers possible for GLS and LBX from 09-13Z tomorrow
morning too. Afterwards, tomorrow`s forecast will be very similar
to today`s, but perhaps a little more coverage in afternoon
showers and storms.

Walts

&&

.MARINE...

Benign marine conditions as surface high pressure remains in place,
resulting in light to moderate onshore winds. Caution flags (Small
Craft Should Exercise Caution) conditions are expected at times,
particularly from late evenings into early mornings. Seas will
generally remain from 2 to 3 ft, occasionally up to 4ft through the
period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected each day,
with the best chances at night. Widespread precipitation chances
are expected after Wednesday as a surface trough (disturbance) moves
across the western Gulf through early Saturday.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 78 100 77 102 78 / 20 10 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 78 94 77 97 76 / 10 30 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 93 84 93 84 / 20 20 10 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...Walts
LONG TERM...Maldonado
AVIATION...Walts
MARINE...Maldonado

Rain totals so far look rather unimpressive for the thursday/ friday time period, fingers crossed the QPF goes up

Considering we've had 0.1 in of rain since May 26, I will gladly take an unimpressive 1-2 in of rainfall.

Totally soaked the back lawn yesterday. Working on the front now.
Watch it finally rain today haha.

We must have had 2" yesterday in a very short time span. Maybe an hour. It was coming DOWN.

snowman65 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:39 am We must have had 2" yesterday in a very short time span. Maybe an hour. It was coming DOWN.

It always rains around Orange. It’s basically just a few steps away from LA.

DoctorMu and Stratton20, I feel your pain. I am about 75 miles East & slightly South of You. It has been a long time since the grass has been crunchy. I live on acreage, with a water well. We don't water the grass. We worry about the Well running dry, in times like these! My property actually backs up to the Sam Houston National Forest. Thank Goodness the Forest Service is diligent about controlled burns for Wildfire control. My Nephew is currently deployed for the 5th or 6th time with our local Wildland Firefighter Team, currently to the Austin/Bastrop area. It's starting to get worrisome, to say the least.

TxLady wow thats bad! I want rain badly, but its hard to be optimistic about seeing any accumulating rain considering we get donut holed every time!

Lookin better on latest 7 day QPF!