Wx Infinity Forums

Eventful evening in progress with southwest moving line of strong to severe thunderstorms…producing the most rainfall this region has seen since late May.

Northeasterly flow storms this time of year must always be watched as the outflow tends to arrive during peak heating producing very strong winds…this evening was no exception with several 55-60mph gusts over central and western Harris into northern Fort Bend. Inland moving seabreeze front collided with southward moving outflow boundary over northern Harris and a corridor of 2-3 inches of rain fell in an hour or less from Kingwood to Aldine to Cypress. This was widespread and much needed rainfall, but several locations recorded over an inch of rainfall in less than 15 minutes.

Line of storms will continue SW into the late evening with the strong outflow boundary pushing off the coast. Overall meso model guidance did not handle the development well this afternoon and evening as they were not aggressive enough and think the boundary will push further offshore than models think. This complicates the forecast for tomorrow as much of the area will be stable through the midday hours, but the boundary may begin to back toward the coast and then transition inland along the seabreeze during the afternoon. Tropical air mass continues to surge into the region from the Gulf, so the moisture is there, but the air mass may take a good bit of the day to recover. Think rain chances may need to be lowered some on Thursday, but should things get going late again there could be some strong storms along the seabreeze and a few storms dropping SW again from East Texas.

Tropical air mass covers much of the area on Friday and expect numerous showers and thunderstorms. Area soundings are nearly saturated so very good rainfall production in storms is expected with hourly rates of 1-3 inches possible. I have been burned with these overly tropical air masses many times where the surface coastal convergence sets up offshore or right on the coast and the inland locations get robbed of rainfall and moisture and see very little rainfall. Will see how the meso models depict things going into Thursday for Friday so rain chances are low confidence.

Moisture begins to trend downward this weekend, but I am a bit uncomfortable with the low level and 850mb trough axis still over the NW Gulf so rain chances may not trend down as much as the current forecast show.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:18 pm Still some light to moderate rain falling here. This will help the plants a lot. It’ll be interesting to see what transpires over the next couple of days.

Astros are tied.

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:41 am One thing is for sure the tropics are having troubles waking up. Not much on the models and 97l is a no go now!

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:59 am Agree with that. Guess we all have become accustomed to big starts and seeing things struggle is surprising. A certain 'A' storm didn't form till August in 1992 and see what that did.