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Don’t think whatever weak low may try to form will give us much in the way of rain, high pressure looks to build in and shove that south of us, probably another one of those close but no cigar moments

Wide angle donut hole.

FXUS64 KHGX 112052
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday Night]...

So far this afternoon, the best development has been with the
sagging boundary moving down from the north...but looking out
further E/NE, additional activity is firing up along outflows
with the seabreeze near the coast. Will maintain scattered to
chance POPs for much of the FA for the rest of this afternoon
into the early part of the evening. We`ll likely have a break
from these rain/storms overnight, but as the easterly wave be-
gins to move into the area early tomorrow (Fri) morning, this
will help to get things started a bit earlier than usual (esp-
ecially near the coast). Rain chances will remain elevated on
into tomorrow afternoon. While the increased POPs (along with
associated cloud cover) should play a role in keeping temper-
atures down, that has not been the case of late. CLL did man-
age to reach 100 this afternoon with upper 90s in other spots.
Will continue to trend MaxTs higher than NBM for tomorrow. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

Over the weekend, the area will transition from higher rain chances
to lower rain chances as the inverted trough moves off to the west and
allows for the mid/upper level ridge to return. Precipitable water values
generally persist in a 2.0 to 2.3 inch range which would continue to
support a locally heavy rainfall possibility, and on WPC`s Day 3 Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for Saturday the southern half of the area is in a
marginal risk. Much lower rain chances and increasing temperatures
can be expected for the first half of next week, and look for the lower
chances to be mainly diurnally driven. With inland high temperatures
back into the upper 90s to around 100, we`ll need to start watching
heat advisory levels once again as our heat index values get close
to and/or exceed 108 degrees (these warmer temperatures will likely
increase the College Station area`s number of days above the century
mark observed this year). The Wednesday night through Thursday time
period looks to be our next best chance of increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances as the ridge begins to retreat off to the northwest
and an eastern U.S trough develops and helps to drag a cold front towards
our area. If this happens, we`ll see a welcomed drop in temperatures.

42

&&

.MARINE...

Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist through the end of the
week and into at least the first half of the weekend. Lowering rain
chances can be expected for the first half of next week. Variable winds
around 5 to 10 knots are anticipated through Saturday or Saturday night
followed by light to occasionally moderate south winds for the remainder
of the period. Seas should remain on the low side, expect in and near
the showers and thunderstorms. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1246 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022/...

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Other than some spotty MVFR/LIFR ceilings, the early part of the
day has been fairly quiet. But as the daytime heating continues,
we are starting to see showers develop along the weak/stationary
front (just north of the CWA) over the northern CWA...as well as
slightly stronger activity along/near the coast (where that line
from helped produce yesterday`s activity). Have sped up the tim-
ing of VCSH for today but will keep VCTS as is. Activity will be
expected to dissipate by early this evening or so (with the loss
of heating). Patchy fog/lower ceilings possible once again going
into the overnight/early morning hours given the wet grounds and
light to calm winds. With the easterly wave progged to reach the
Upper TX coast/SE TX early tomorrow, not going to argue too much
with the earlier timing of the mention of VCSH/VCTS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 79 97 77 98 77 / 30 50 30 30 0
Houston (IAH) 77 95 75 93 75 / 40 80 40 70 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 90 82 91 82 / 70 80 60 70 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Yep. Figures. It just rained a bunch of debris on my freshly manicured lawn and cleaned pool. Maybe tomorrow. I think I need a margarita.

Pretty good agreement across models and ensembles of a FROPA late next week (TH/FR). Potential for rain and slightly cooler temps.

At 517 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spring, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Humble, Jersey Village, Greater Greenspoint, Spring, Aldine, Northside / Northline, Kingwood, northwestern Greater Heights, Bush Intercontinental Airport, Central Northwest, Splashtown, Willowbrook, Hidden Valley, Acres Home, Independence Heights, Porter Heights, Greater Inwood, Lazybrook / Timbergrove, Fairbanks / Northwest Crossing and Eastex / Jensen Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Anything that gets going kicks off an outflow and collapses. I swear we are the only place on earth this happens to with such regularity.

The sun has been out here since about 5:00, with thunder. Just crazy!!

Why is everything here so dead? The literal sea-breeze sweeping through, even colliding with outflows ... and nothing (i.e. at time of posting).

user:null wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:19 pm Why is everything here so dead? The literal sea-breeze sweeping through, even colliding with outflows ... and nothing (i.e. at time of posting).

The ground is too dry, too much concrete, suppressed air pollution, too much technology, 5G mmWaves.. lol. I have no idea but it’s crazy.

user:null wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:19 pm Why is everything here so dead? The literal sea-breeze sweeping through, even colliding with outflows ... and nothing (i.e. at time of posting).

Outflows are king down here. They kill everything.

I honestly thought today would produce more storms. I know the atmosphere got worked over last night but I had a high of 101 degrees today.

This gulf
disturbance has a bit of a mid level spin to it, if this develops into a weak low and tracks into south texas by saturday , you can pretty much kiss rain chances good bye

Hrr trying to spin it up

Since all the storms out in the gulf have dissipated, that's actually a good sign for tomorrow. Hopefully the moisture surge won't be blocked.

It's also still 86 degrees here at 8:52 at night. It didn't cool off that much with the outflow boundaries.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:13 pm Since all the storms out in the gulf have dissipated, that's actually a good sign for tomorrow. Hopefully the moisture surge won't be blocked.

It's also still 86 degrees here at 8:52 at night. It didn't cool off that much with the outflow boundaries.

Tomorrow we should avoid the N-S outflow collisions. Hope springs eternal although we're just 21 days from meteorological Fall.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:13 pm Since all the storms out in the gulf have dissipated, that's actually a good sign for tomorrow. Hopefully the moisture surge won't be blocked.

It's also still 86 degrees here at 8:52 at night. It didn't cool off that much with the outflow boundaries.

Still 90°F+ up in CLL.

Theirs a small chance a system may try to develop this weekend as it nears the middle Texas coast.Not likely but something to watch just in case.

Don that would be a bad thing if it develops some, a more developed low would pull the moisture closer to it and especially since this is likely going to move into the southern texas coast, could really rob moisture from SE Texas

WRF model is going bonkers in the Gulf.