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Trough axis and mid level low pressure system over the northern Gulf of Mexico will drift westward over the weekend and into the lower TX coast.

Satellite images, coastal radars, and offshore buoys/oil platforms indicate an elongated trough axis that extends off the coast of TX ENE toward the MS/AL coast with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along this boundary. This boundary can be traced back to the “front” that moved through the area with thunderstorms on Wednesday evening. A mid level low pressure area is located over SE LA and is moving slowly westward. Over the last few days, the ICON global model has been suggesting surface low pressure may begin to develop with the mid level circulation as it moves westward over the weekend and several of the higher resolution models also show various degrees of surface low pressure formation very near the TX coast on Saturday. Overnight both the GFS and ECWMF models have also trended toward some slight formation of lowering pressures along the TX coast this weekend. While the upper level winds are favorable for development near the TX coast, it is most likely that the mid level low will not have enough time to work down toward the surface before moving inland late Saturday into Sunday between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

The National Hurricane Center is indicating a 10% chance of development over the weekend.

With the mid/low level circulation expected to move W/WSW over the NW Gulf this weekend, it is expected that much of the shower and thunderstorm development will focus near the coast and offshore and this has been suggested by the high resolution models for the last 24 hours. With that said, areas south of I-10 will be well within the deep moisture envelope of the circulation and bands of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at nearly any time over the next 48-72 hours. Greatest chances will be near the coast with lesser chances inland to the north as high pressure and drier air begins to build southward from the northeast. Given PWS of 2.2-2.3 inches and possible cell training a quick 2-3 inches of rainfall in less than an hour will be possible, so while grounds are dry and mostly will be able to handle the rainfall, some street flooding will be possible with those rates.

Tides are already elevated along the coast due to the full moon, but have been coming in below advisory levels at high tide over the last few days. Easterly and southeasterly low level winds on the north side of the surface trough/low may bump seas up a bit over the weekend and push tides a little higher. Still think we will stay below advisory levels, but water will be way up the beaches at high tides over the weekend.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:34 am Been hearing loud thunder all night and again this morning from the cells that have stayed just north of me so far.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:29 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:34 am Been hearing loud thunder all night and again this morning from the cells that have stayed just north of me so far.

I’ve been watching it all morning. Man you just can’t catch a break. Hopefully, today-tomorrow, finally you will get something.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:52 am When you read the SCW blog they completely ignore that today was supposed to be a big rainmaker. They just pretend it wasn't so and move right on to the next.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:49 am

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:29 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:34 am Been hearing loud thunder all night and again this morning from the cells that have stayed just north of me so far.

I’ve been watching it all morning. Man you just can’t catch a break. Hopefully, today-tomorrow, finally you will get something.

Not looking good. Everything is well to the south and offshore. I see nothing from the north anymore.

JDsGN wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:56 am

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:52 am When you read the SCW blog they completely ignore that today was supposed to be a big rainmaker. They just pretend it wasn't so and move right on to the next.

Pretty typical. I enjoy their forecast but they sorta roll with the punches and rarely go back and explain why their forecast changes drastically or why a strong "no hype" prediction was a bust.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:45 am This system is tightening up....we may see some bands forming. The clouds outside going NE look like a band trying to slowly setup now.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:45 pm Every...single...cell...

They either dodge the house or just evaporate to nothing right as they get to us. Have only managed a quarter of an inch total from everything. Looking at around 2 inches or slightly less since May.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 5:51 pm User Null its not going to be able to really going anymore NE because its been pushed south by high pressure over Northwest Texas, and most of the convection is on the south side of this system, if it goes in south of corpus christi, we wont get anything, it needs to come in around Matagorda bay for SE Texas to get widespread rain, the trajectory of the low in land also is a factor, models forecast the low to move almost due west after a landfall around or just south of CC, we would need the low to track more NNW to get more rain in here