Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:55 pm
I am rooting for S Texas they just declared a disaster due to their extreme drought.
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Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:06 pm
System is now INVEST 98L
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:45 pm
Every...single...cell...
They either dodge the house or just evaporate to nothing right as they get to us. Have only managed a quarter of an inch total from everything. Looking at around 2 inches or slightly less since May.
They either dodge the house or just evaporate to nothing right as they get to us. Have only managed a quarter of an inch total from everything. Looking at around 2 inches or slightly less since May.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:49 pm
That’s about what I’ve had since May as well.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:58 pm
That is absolutely depressing to know that their literally is a weak tropical system on our doorstep and it’s literally going to take most of the moisture away from us, as I say, next! Another day getting shafted yet again, but what else is new?
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:23 pm
Another King Rancher…
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 5:23 pm
The storm track may shift northeastward up the Texas coast just like previous occurrences. That would put more areas in play.
But even if it's going to South Texas, then we'd still be on the "dirty side".
So not seeing the issue?
But even if it's going to South Texas, then we'd still be on the "dirty side".
So not seeing the issue?
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 5:51 pm
User Null its not going to be able to really going anymore NE because its been pushed south by high pressure over Northwest Texas, and most of the convection is on the south side of this system, if it goes in south of corpus christi, we wont get anything, it needs to come in around Matagorda bay for SE Texas to get widespread rain, the trajectory of the low in land also is a factor, models forecast the low to move almost due west after a landfall around or just south of CC, we would need the low to track more NNW to get more rain in here
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 5:57 pm
Normally when a storm makes a landfall around CC, we get a lot of rain across southeast TX. Harvey made landfall just north of there. So it’s kinda odd for a system to make a landfall around there and we not get anything from it. I’m guessing it’s because it’s a really small system.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 5:51 pm User Null its not going to be able to really going anymore NE because its been pushed south by high pressure over Northwest Texas, and most of the convection is on the south side of this system, if it goes in south of corpus christi, we wont get anything, it needs to come in around Matagorda bay for SE Texas to get widespread rain, the trajectory of the low in land also is a factor, models forecast the low to move almost due west after a landfall around or just south of CC, we would need the low to track more NNW to get more rain in here
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:07 pm
Cpv17 its not just that, its also that most of the convection is to the south of where the “center” is, kinda similar to barry back in 2019, but yeah Harvey was a much bigger storm, this is definitely much smaller in size
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:44 pm
Alright, time to get more serious. The drama was fun while it lasted, at least for me - haha.
98L will come-in just south of Corpus. It remains to be seen how far north/inland the rain shield and attendant feeder bands will push on Sat and Sun.
Herzog has 40% chances of rain for Houston tomorrow and 60% on Sunday.
NWS has 70% chances of rain for Houston tomorrow and 40% on Sunday.
98L will come-in just south of Corpus. It remains to be seen how far north/inland the rain shield and attendant feeder bands will push on Sat and Sun.
Herzog has 40% chances of rain for Houston tomorrow and 60% on Sunday.
NWS has 70% chances of rain for Houston tomorrow and 40% on Sunday.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:07 pm
Depression?
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:13 pm
I understand that. It’s just extremely odd not for a system to have substantial convection on the north and east side. The only way for that not to happen would be from shear. Southern sides of storms are typically void of convection.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:07 pm Cpv17 its not just that, its also that most of the convection is to the south of where the “center” is, kinda similar to barry back in 2019, but yeah Harvey was a much bigger storm, this is definitely much smaller in size
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:15 pm
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:15 pm
Cpv17 might be a little bit of shear, but we will see if this system can start to get some convection going on its Northeast side overnight, otherwise i dont expect much from 98L, 18z GEFS has a little bit of a signal for potentially another gulf system next week, but thats just speculation for now
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:17 pm
The 18z GFS is the best overall run of any model I have seen in ages. It literally has substantial rains for the entire state.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:20 pm
College Station won’t see anything from it but I think my area has a chance to see something. Like I said this morning, south of I-10 has better chances.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:15 pm Cpv17 might be a little bit of shear, but we will see if this system can start to get some convection going on its Northeast side overnight, otherwise i dont expect much from 98L, 18z GEFS has a little bit of a signal for potentially another gulf system next week, but thats just speculation for now
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:22 pm
CPV17 Im actually back in katy now visiting my parents for the next 2 weeks and we just got a nice refreshing thunderstorm here, man have I missed the sound of thunder and heavy rain hahaha
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:50 pm
Things I no longer trust.
1. Long range forecasts (for obvious reasons).
2. Daily forecasts.
3. The radar.
I'm getting a weather rock. I have seen too many times that my area does whatever the hell it wants to. We didn't even get a sprinkle today besides a tiny bit overnight last night.
1. Long range forecasts (for obvious reasons).
2. Daily forecasts.
3. The radar.
I'm getting a weather rock. I have seen too many times that my area does whatever the hell it wants to. We didn't even get a sprinkle today besides a tiny bit overnight last night.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:58 pm
Santa Fe Tx here. Very little rain here too!!!