Wx Infinity Forums

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:30 pm

tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:32 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:44 pm August 1st is here! Hopefully this means wetter weather for us. Actually, temperatures are much cooler than they were a month ago. I'm starting to think we may (fingers crossed) have passed the worst of summer. Average highs will start to decrease in a few weeks (woohooooo)!

On another note, I have not ever talked on here about my career goals, but I am moving to Starkville, Mississippi on the 12th to pursue my bachelor's degree in Professional Meteorology at Mississippi State! So, while I will not be living in Texas, I will still continue to track weather and converse with the community, but I will be busy taking more than a full load this fall. It will also be fun to track tornadoes and other weather while I am living there.

Let us know how you are during each semester. You know we will live vicariously through you!

Will do! I feel like I hardly know what rain is, so maybe I will see a lot in Starkville. It definitely has been raining more there a lot more than here lately.

High pwats there than here.

Lucy trolls again.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:10 pm Lucy trolls again.

I can't even get her to troll around here anymore. Not a drop in 33 days.

Hopefully that 45/1960 cell heads up there- it sure is a heavy producer!

The vast bulk of the Eastern US even down the the inland Southeast areas (i.e. like Starksville), or even the Gulf Coast, simply happens to get help from midlatitude streams. Even if not a full blown front, then at least the disturbances/shortwaves/etc that trigger mesocale precip events (i.e. similar to spring weather systems in areas of Texas).

And based on what I see so far from the SW desert "monsoon", that mostly looks to be a mechanical interaction with all the orography in the region — I don't see much rainfall at all happening in lowland areas like Yuma as opposed to the mountain peaks.

The peninsula of Florida is the only true "tropical convective" region in the continental US. Even Texas performs better than much of the US in that regard, particularly when looking at "stalled" tropical events (i.e. Claudette, Allison, Harvey, etc).

60% chance of rain for Houston on Friday per channel 13 forecast.

I don't know how Jason's BY is faring, but east Montgomery County is winning the Texas Lottery today.

I just keep getting trolled by Lucy again and again…

I have better odds of becoming the next President than I do getting any rain🥲

Im liking what I see in the medium-Long range in the GFS, late next week it looks like the GFS has a cut off low drifting westward over the state!

Well the 7 day QPF is looking a LITTLE better for SETX. Unfortunately more of the same for the rest of the state. Right now for Friday, an 80% coverage for the triangle and Houston at a 60% coverage. Hopefully numbers dont start to dwindle as we get closer. I don’t remember the last time we were forecasted 60%~80%. Lol

djmike wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:29 pm Well the 7 day QPF is looking a LITTLE better for SETX. Unfortunately more of the same for the rest of the state. Right now for Friday, an 80% coverage for the triangle and Houston at a 60% coverage. Hopefully numbers dont start to dwindle as we get closer. I don’t remember the last time we were forecasted 60%~80%. Lol
44B8E173-F74F-4E5A-BA94-BF3C81F14AE7.jpeg

The last time we were forecasted at 60-80 percent was when the gulf was under a moderate risk of tropical development. It was a major bust in Houston.

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:57 pm

djmike wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:29 pm Well the 7 day QPF is looking a LITTLE better for SETX. Unfortunately more of the same for the rest of the state. Right now for Friday, an 80% coverage for the triangle and Houston at a 60% coverage. Hopefully numbers dont start to dwindle as we get closer. I don’t remember the last time we were forecasted 60%~80%. Lol
44B8E173-F74F-4E5A-BA94-BF3C81F14AE7.jpeg

The last time we were forecasted at 60-80 percent was when the gulf was under a moderate risk of tropical development. It was a major bust in Houston.

Colossal bust and had that system brought the 2-4” I was supposed to get a lot of dead trees and shrubs in the area would still be alive. I’m glad I was in Florida and pre-occupied with fishing and beaching it in the sand.

We can analyze the heck out of the daily regime... but when harking back to 2011 we all know that drought begets drought... only broken by a very big tropical surge of some form. When we see the daily drift of rich moisture moving our way from Louisiana, only to go poof at the border... it's obviously because our insanely dry soil is cutting off the "fuel". When we get into this dire situation, "daytime heating" and the "seabreeze" showers just cease to materialize as we would've traditionally expected during a normal SETX summer.

I am dubious that any 'inverted trough' will be of much value now. It will take a tropical humdinger (the technical term) to solve this deal.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:36 pm

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:57 pm

djmike wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:29 pm Well the 7 day QPF is looking a LITTLE better for SETX. Unfortunately more of the same for the rest of the state. Right now for Friday, an 80% coverage for the triangle and Houston at a 60% coverage. Hopefully numbers dont start to dwindle as we get closer. I don’t remember the last time we were forecasted 60%~80%. Lol
44B8E173-F74F-4E5A-BA94-BF3C81F14AE7.jpeg

The last time we were forecasted at 60-80 percent was when the gulf was under a moderate risk of tropical development. It was a major bust in Houston.

Colossal bust and had that system brought the 2-4” I was supposed to get a lot of dead trees and shrubs in the area would still be alive. I’m glad I was in Florida and pre-occupied with fishing and beaching it in the sand.

That was one massive bust. The last measurable rain IMBY was May 25 or 26.

And the beat goes one...

Kludge wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:52 pm We can analyze the heck out of the daily regime... but when harking back to 2011 we all know that drought begets drought... only broken by a very big tropical surge of some form. When we see the daily drift of rich moisture moving our way from Louisiana, only to go poof at the border... it's obviously because our insanely dry soil is cutting off the "fuel". When we get into this dire situation, "daytime heating" and the "seabreeze" showers just cease to materialize as we would've traditionally expected during a normal SETX summer.

I am dubious that any 'inverted trough' will be of much value now. It will take a tropical humdinger (the technical term) to solve this deal.

Hmmm...not sure I agree with this. 2011 failed to deliver a tropical system, but rainfall did gradually start to pickup over winter 2011 into 2012. It wasn't an instantaneous transition, but the overall pattern did start to change. The only problem is that we had to wait a long while for the rain.

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:10 pm

Kludge wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:52 pm We can analyze the heck out of the daily regime... but when harking back to 2011 we all know that drought begets drought... only broken by a very big tropical surge of some form. When we see the daily drift of rich moisture moving our way from Louisiana, only to go poof at the border... it's obviously because our insanely dry soil is cutting off the "fuel". When we get into this dire situation, "daytime heating" and the "seabreeze" showers just cease to materialize as we would've traditionally expected during a normal SETX summer.

I am dubious that any 'inverted trough' will be of much value now. It will take a tropical humdinger (the technical term) to solve this deal.

Hmmm...not sure I agree with this. 2011 failed to deliver a tropical system, but rainfall did gradually start to pickup over winter 2011 into 2012. It wasn't an instantaneous transition, but the overall pattern did start to change. The only problem is that we had to wait a long while for the rain.

It is true that when you have very dry soils it makes it much harder for it to rain. Ntxw taught me that on S2K.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:47 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:10 pm

Kludge wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:52 pm We can analyze the heck out of the daily regime... but when harking back to 2011 we all know that drought begets drought... only broken by a very big tropical surge of some form. When we see the daily drift of rich moisture moving our way from Louisiana, only to go poof at the border... it's obviously because our insanely dry soil is cutting off the "fuel". When we get into this dire situation, "daytime heating" and the "seabreeze" showers just cease to materialize as we would've traditionally expected during a normal SETX summer.

I am dubious that any 'inverted trough' will be of much value now. It will take a tropical humdinger (the technical term) to solve this deal.

Hmmm...not sure I agree with this. 2011 failed to deliver a tropical system, but rainfall did gradually start to pickup over winter 2011 into 2012. It wasn't an instantaneous transition, but the overall pattern did start to change. The only problem is that we had to wait a long while for the rain.

It is true that when you have very dry soils it makes it much harder for it to rain. Ntxw taught me that on S2K.

Right. That is true when you want localized heavy shower events. Due to a lack of moisture, it must be advected from other moist sources (Caribbean, GOM) than the ground to see heavy rainfall. My point was that tropical systems do not always end droughts for us. However, they often do. 2011 was just an unfortunate example of not having one and having to wait an additional 6 months for rain to start picking up significantly.

I don’t want to jinx it, but seeing >40% daily rain chances every day for the next 10 days tells me there will be SOMETHING out of it. I’ve basically lived my entirety of existence (~43 years) south of I-10….from South Louisiana to League City. I have never experienced a Summer as searing hot and brutally dry as this one and I am ready for this %#^-show to be over with.

My rain chances tomorrow have been lowered to 50%.

KPRC anchors last night joked with Frank that everyone in Houston has Friday circled on their calendars.

“I have a bad feeling about this…”