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The 18z GFS sends another strong hurricane inland just south of south Texas.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:39 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 5:55 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 4:42 pm I’m more interested in the second storm out in the Atlantic vs anything in the Gulf or Caribbean at this time but that’s just me lol

I agree.

Yep. Ridging looks stout over the east coast. I personally don’t see this going there or out to sea and climo favors the Gulf right now.

Do you think it will go into Mexico or go farther north up the Texas coast or into Louisiana?

Another afternoon thunderstorm thanks to the outflow boundary party earlier across the Upper TX Coast which dump 1.3" of heavy tropical rain. It will be time to watch the tropics a little closer next week.

sambucol wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:05 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:39 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 5:55 pm

I agree.

Yep. Ridging looks stout over the east coast. I personally don’t see this going there or out to sea and climo favors the Gulf right now.

Do you think it will go into Mexico or go farther north up the Texas coast or into Louisiana?

I was referring to the other system out in the Atlantic. I personally don’t see the one in the Caribbean developing (maybe in the EPAC) but we should still keep a close eye on it.

Katdaddy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:25 pm Another afternoon thunderstorm thanks to the outflow boundary party earlier across the Upper TX Coast which dump 1.3" of heavy tropical rain. It will be time to watch the tropics a little closer next week.

I was working at San Jac south campus today and I could hear the thunder just booming towards your area. It was a steam bath out there today.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1140 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon,
especially south of I-10. Storms have produced locally heavy
rainfall rates of up to 3 inches per hour. Therefore, localized
flooding is a concern. Though there continues to be a risk of
TS/SH over most of the CWA, the best chance of rain will continue
to be roughly near and to the south of I-10 where there has been
more surface convergence from the seabreeze and a weak surface
boundary as well as less mid level dry air to overcome. Tstorms
have produced a copious amount of outflow boundaries this
afternoon which will need to be monitored for convection
initiation for not just areas south of I-10 but farther north
locations as well. Precip should taper after sunset due to the
loss of daytime heating. The exception will be for areas near the
coast where there will be a risk of showers and an iso
thunderstorms after midnight.

Tomorrow looks quite similar to today. However, we do think there will
be more PWAT to work with. NBM is quite aggressive with PoPs from
the Houston metro points south to the coast. We think the NBM is
likely too aggressive once again. That being said, we are indicating
slightly higher PoPs tomorrow due to a less dry moisture profile.
As to be expected with summertime showers and storms, there will
be a risk of locally heavy rainfall. Tis the season for downpours!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast for
the end of the weekend and for much of next week. The combination of
a series of weak disturbances, abundant moisture levels and a southward
sagging surface boundary will contribute to daily rain chances, and
enough instability looks to remain in place for some storms to linger/
reform during the late night through early morning hours. Some of the
slower moving activity or where any boundary mergers occur or training
sets up could lead to some localized flooding issues, similar to what
some of our area has seen this week. Think that the highest rainfall
totals over the six days should concentrate around our central and
coastal counties, generally near and to the south of the I-59/69 corridor.
Hopefully some of the higher rainfall totals can spread further inland
to some of our most drought stricken locations (parts of Washington-
Austin-Colorado-Wharton-Jackson counties).

For temperatures, the daily rains should help to keep high temperatures
in an upper 80s to lower 90s range. However, if the start of rains gets
delayed or one or more days ends up drier than expected, some readings
in the mid 90s will be possible.

42

cperk wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:06 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:05 pm The 18z GFS sends another strong hurricane inland just south of south Texas.It just won't let go of this scenario.

0z throws the TC into northern Mexico then converging with Pacific moisture...which could results in heavy rain in SETX.

or not.

I don’t know much about modeling but the gfs isn’t the only model showing that low by the Yucatán on September 4

Navgem is too.

anyone buying this?

Dls2010r wrote: ↑Sat Aug 27, 2022 8:55 am Navgem is too.

The Navgem is pretty bad. They key takeaway for me is that the models are very wet. We have unanimous agreement that we’re gonna be in a pretty wet pattern which is absolutely fine with me.

That area to the south in the Gulf looks interesting currently. It would increase our wet weather for sure!

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 27, 2022 10:43 am anyone buying this?

No. Plus that model run is old and has no support. The GFS is now sending it towards Tampico.

ThankYou for answering!

Monday is looking really wet for us. Mesoscale models are starting to come into play for Monday and they all look wet. Starting first thing in the morning.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:10 pm Monday is looking really wet for us. Mesoscale models are starting to come into play for Monday and they all look wet. Starting first thing in the morning.

Yep, the disturbance currently in the Gulf moves inland on Monday.

don wrote: ↑Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:12 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:10 pm Monday is looking really wet for us. Mesoscale models are starting to come into play for Monday and they all look wet. Starting first thing in the morning.

Yep, the disturbance currently in the Gulf moves inland on Monday.

Watching closely. Dying fronts in the GOM this time of year can always spawn a surprise.

Yeah I was about to say, that has some decent convection with it, now I am not anticipating this to develop, but im definitely not writing it off either… These disturbances can surprise folks

That first wave the NHC is monitoring is developing a bit more thunderstorm activity.