September 2022
Just got back from Austin. The trees in Bastrop are in much better shape than around here. I noticed lots of dead trees along the Grand Parkway.
What trees in particular? Because the species/subspecies composition in wilderness, landscaping, etc is quite different in Bastrop versus farther east, which could affect the presentation during drought/recovery.
Austin has gotten far more rain than CLL and Jason's donut during the late summer.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191128
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022
A 594 dam mid to upper level ridge will be comfortably sitting just
north of our area, centered over Southern OK and NE Texas. With a
surface high centered over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley
and dry air filling in aloft, conditions during the day will be
reminiscent the summer as 850mb temperatures rise into the 18-20C
range. This will allow for highs to reach the mid to upper 90s for
inland locations and mid to lower 90s for areas along the coast.
PWATS in areas along and south of I-10 range from around 1.8 to 2.0
inches, which should be sufficient moisture for a few diurnally
driven showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop in the
afternoon. Though, these scattered storms won`t provide much relief
from today`s hot conditions.
Tuesday will see temperatures continue to rise with diminishing
moisture across the region. PWATS drop to or below 1.5" during the
afternoon hours with increasing subsidence from the aforementioned
mid to upper level ridge. The culmination of these conditions should
suppress the development of afternoon showers and storms, putting
our rain chances slim to none on Tuesday. These drier conditions and
clearer skies will allow for improved diurnal heating, allowing
highs to be a degree or so warmer than yesterday. This will also
allow for improved cooling overnight, with lows still generally in
the 70s.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022
Outside of growing confidence in a week dominated by summer-like
heat, there is not a whole lot of change in the expectations for
the long-term. Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the week,
but above-average temperatures look to prevail through the
weekend. Rain chances will be functionally nil from Wednesday
through Saturday, with only slight chances over the Gulf and
coastal areas on Sunday.
Will we see record highs at any point? Well, consider the records
later in the week are in the upper 90s to low 100s, it`s
certainly on the table for College Station and Houston. Hobby
might be a little more iffy, since the forecast highs there are
trailing just behind IAH, but we should at least be in the
ballpark. Palacios and Galveston have a better shot of staying
safe. Winds should have enough of an onshore component for the
Gulf waters - warm as they are - to mitigate afternoon highs on
the coast just enough to keep records safe.
For those who`ve been reading the last few nights (First, thank
you. Second, why?), you`ll probably notice that I am more open to
discussing records tonight than in previous nights. Part of that
is just the natural drift upwards in the deterministic NBM, which
I have been using as the basis for my temps in this string, since
it`s the most accurate (bias-corrected) consensus blend I have
available to me. Now, sometimes I`ll dabble in other blends, or
pull from different portions of the NBM distribution if I have a
compelling meteorological reason for doing so. So far, I haven`t
really found one. NBM straight seems to be getting me pretty much
the impact I`m looking for.
But things are starting to push me towards moving my thinking
from "well above average" to "approaching records". I hinted as
much last night, when I discussed that if the NAEFS and/or ECMWF
ensemble ridge or low level temps start hitting extreme values I
would have to re-evaluate. Well, the Euro has got low level temps
that are now starting to push their extremes for their time frame
and even for all hours in one spot. The NAEFS isn`t quite there
yet, but has bumped up from exceeding the 90th percentile to
exceeding the 99th percentile. Finally, particularly on Thursday,
the Euro ensemble Extreme Forecast Index is indicating higher
probabilities of high end temperatures.
All in all, the guidance seems to be increasingly pointing to
near-record warmth. And so here I was thinking that I would have
to start blending in some 75th percentile NBM numbers...but no,
the deterministic NBM is already right there, bringing triple
digit highs on Thursday all the way down to IAH. For what it`s
worth, tonight`s distribution is fairly narrow - the 75th
percentile temps run only 1-3 degrees higher than the
deterministic/median numbers. That is still probably the
difference between "records possible" and "records likely", so in
the interest of more gradually ramping the message up, I`ll stick
with the softer tone for now. If, say, the NAEFS wants to join the
extreme party, or if deterministic models want to give me a
midlevel ridge stronger than 595, or widespread 850 temps above
20C, I might be inclined to sound the alarm a little louder. It is
the end of my string, though, so I will have to leave that call to
someone else.
Beyond Thursday, we see a gradually weakening of ridging and the
approach of a weak front into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.
Don`t get too excited - I`m expecting ridging to ultimately win
this battle, but we should at least blunt its strength enough to
be a little less hot to finish the week out. We may get a little
more luck in getting back to more typical mid/late September
conditions with a reinforcing front early Monday morning. But at
a week out, I`d put a very strong emphasis on the word "may" in
possiblethat sentence. Along with tempering the heat some more,
this front would also be able to bring in our first and only real
rain chances in the long term. So...something to hope for.
Luchs
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022
Patchy fog has developed across portions of the region this
morning. This fog may bring MVFR and even brief instances of IFR
levels of visibility to KLBX and KCXO throughout the early
morning. Any fog that does develop should burn off shortly after
sunrise as light to moderate E/SE winds set in across the region.
VFR conditions should prevail throughout the day with afternoon
showers possible near the coast. Winds should become light and
variable this evening with patchy fog once again possible late
tonight.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022
With high pressure in command across the region, expect relatively
quiet marine conditions to be the rule. Light to occasionally
moderate east and southeasterly winds should prevail through the
week. Any break to this would be from light offshore winds overnight
and early in the morning along the landbreeze. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms today will be the last real chance at rain for
the rest of the week. Water levels at times of high tide may reach
or slightly exceed 3 feet above MLLW for the next few days.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 73 97 72 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 74 96 73 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 91 79 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
FXUS64 KHGX 191128
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022
A 594 dam mid to upper level ridge will be comfortably sitting just
north of our area, centered over Southern OK and NE Texas. With a
surface high centered over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley
and dry air filling in aloft, conditions during the day will be
reminiscent the summer as 850mb temperatures rise into the 18-20C
range. This will allow for highs to reach the mid to upper 90s for
inland locations and mid to lower 90s for areas along the coast.
PWATS in areas along and south of I-10 range from around 1.8 to 2.0
inches, which should be sufficient moisture for a few diurnally
driven showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop in the
afternoon. Though, these scattered storms won`t provide much relief
from today`s hot conditions.
Tuesday will see temperatures continue to rise with diminishing
moisture across the region. PWATS drop to or below 1.5" during the
afternoon hours with increasing subsidence from the aforementioned
mid to upper level ridge. The culmination of these conditions should
suppress the development of afternoon showers and storms, putting
our rain chances slim to none on Tuesday. These drier conditions and
clearer skies will allow for improved diurnal heating, allowing
highs to be a degree or so warmer than yesterday. This will also
allow for improved cooling overnight, with lows still generally in
the 70s.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022
Outside of growing confidence in a week dominated by summer-like
heat, there is not a whole lot of change in the expectations for
the long-term. Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the week,
but above-average temperatures look to prevail through the
weekend. Rain chances will be functionally nil from Wednesday
through Saturday, with only slight chances over the Gulf and
coastal areas on Sunday.
Will we see record highs at any point? Well, consider the records
later in the week are in the upper 90s to low 100s, it`s
certainly on the table for College Station and Houston. Hobby
might be a little more iffy, since the forecast highs there are
trailing just behind IAH, but we should at least be in the
ballpark. Palacios and Galveston have a better shot of staying
safe. Winds should have enough of an onshore component for the
Gulf waters - warm as they are - to mitigate afternoon highs on
the coast just enough to keep records safe.
For those who`ve been reading the last few nights (First, thank
you. Second, why?), you`ll probably notice that I am more open to
discussing records tonight than in previous nights. Part of that
is just the natural drift upwards in the deterministic NBM, which
I have been using as the basis for my temps in this string, since
it`s the most accurate (bias-corrected) consensus blend I have
available to me. Now, sometimes I`ll dabble in other blends, or
pull from different portions of the NBM distribution if I have a
compelling meteorological reason for doing so. So far, I haven`t
really found one. NBM straight seems to be getting me pretty much
the impact I`m looking for.
But things are starting to push me towards moving my thinking
from "well above average" to "approaching records". I hinted as
much last night, when I discussed that if the NAEFS and/or ECMWF
ensemble ridge or low level temps start hitting extreme values I
would have to re-evaluate. Well, the Euro has got low level temps
that are now starting to push their extremes for their time frame
and even for all hours in one spot. The NAEFS isn`t quite there
yet, but has bumped up from exceeding the 90th percentile to
exceeding the 99th percentile. Finally, particularly on Thursday,
the Euro ensemble Extreme Forecast Index is indicating higher
probabilities of high end temperatures.
All in all, the guidance seems to be increasingly pointing to
near-record warmth. And so here I was thinking that I would have
to start blending in some 75th percentile NBM numbers...but no,
the deterministic NBM is already right there, bringing triple
digit highs on Thursday all the way down to IAH. For what it`s
worth, tonight`s distribution is fairly narrow - the 75th
percentile temps run only 1-3 degrees higher than the
deterministic/median numbers. That is still probably the
difference between "records possible" and "records likely", so in
the interest of more gradually ramping the message up, I`ll stick
with the softer tone for now. If, say, the NAEFS wants to join the
extreme party, or if deterministic models want to give me a
midlevel ridge stronger than 595, or widespread 850 temps above
20C, I might be inclined to sound the alarm a little louder. It is
the end of my string, though, so I will have to leave that call to
someone else.
Beyond Thursday, we see a gradually weakening of ridging and the
approach of a weak front into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.
Don`t get too excited - I`m expecting ridging to ultimately win
this battle, but we should at least blunt its strength enough to
be a little less hot to finish the week out. We may get a little
more luck in getting back to more typical mid/late September
conditions with a reinforcing front early Monday morning. But at
a week out, I`d put a very strong emphasis on the word "may" in
possiblethat sentence. Along with tempering the heat some more,
this front would also be able to bring in our first and only real
rain chances in the long term. So...something to hope for.
Luchs
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022
Patchy fog has developed across portions of the region this
morning. This fog may bring MVFR and even brief instances of IFR
levels of visibility to KLBX and KCXO throughout the early
morning. Any fog that does develop should burn off shortly after
sunrise as light to moderate E/SE winds set in across the region.
VFR conditions should prevail throughout the day with afternoon
showers possible near the coast. Winds should become light and
variable this evening with patchy fog once again possible late
tonight.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022
With high pressure in command across the region, expect relatively
quiet marine conditions to be the rule. Light to occasionally
moderate east and southeasterly winds should prevail through the
week. Any break to this would be from light offshore winds overnight
and early in the morning along the landbreeze. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms today will be the last real chance at rain for
the rest of the week. Water levels at times of high tide may reach
or slightly exceed 3 feet above MLLW for the next few days.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 73 97 72 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 74 96 73 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 91 79 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
From the AFD forecast this morning. Made me chuckle. The answer, because we do..LOL
For those who`ve been reading the last few nights (First, thank
you. Second, why?), you`ll probably notice that I am more open to
discussing records tonight than in previous nights.
For those who`ve been reading the last few nights (First, thank
you. Second, why?), you`ll probably notice that I am more open to
discussing records tonight than in previous nights.
It's disgusting outside
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
That was probably the worst and most 
forecast discussion ice ever read, Im calling mother nature to cancel this extended summer contract!
forecast discussion ice ever read, Im calling mother nature to cancel this extended summer contract!The Big Suck is Back...and playing at your local theaters into October.
The CC-related changes I've noticed over the last 30+ years in Texas:
Summer - still sucks, but more varied rainfall
Fall - more summer
Winter - more varied, including more wintry mischief
Spring - earlier Severe Season
Summer - still sucks, but more varied rainfall
Fall - more summer
Winter - more varied, including more wintry mischief
Spring - earlier Severe Season
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Ive seen a lot of ugly runs from the GFS in the tropics, but this 12z run by far takes the crown 
Yeah. Fall is non existent in Houston. Instead we get spring severe season and winter severe season with 6-7 months of summer in between.
GFS and CMC both bring a front in around the 26th. Lower low temps after that. Chance of rain with the FROPA looks iffy though.
Still, it's something (if true).
Fiona is getting Omega Blocked and on its way to becoming and impressive fish storm.
Still, it's something (if true).
Fiona is getting Omega Blocked and on its way to becoming and impressive fish storm.
I just caught the last few frames off in fantasyland.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:04 pm Ive seen a lot of ugly runs from the GFS in the tropics, but this 12z run by far takes the crown
The ridge does slide east by then...so a GoM storm could be trouble.
Bermuda in for a rough ride here in a couple of days
ACE lovers will love to hear that lol as for me I couldn’t give two cents about ACE. I’m only interested in storms that have a chance at coming here.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Very strong supports from the EPS members
- Attachments
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I wasn’t even aware there was another storm out there lol been such a snoozer with the weather lately. I haven’t even been paying much attention to the models.
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Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
- Contact:
Finally back! It's been MONTHS!
I reached 112°F in July, which is the 2nd hottest Temperature I've ever recorded and experienced.
I reached 112°F in July, which is the 2nd hottest Temperature I've ever recorded and experienced.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 yeah NHC just highlighted a new area to watch, difference here is this wave is much farther south compared to the one that became Fiona, model guidance is going nuts with this one lol
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Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
- Contact:
I saw that, the GFS has a Peak Intensity of 920 mb at landfall at the Yucatán with a secondary peak over the GOM before striking near Houston. While the Euro has this peaking at 949 MB and heading towards Panhandle Florida.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:27 pm Cpv17 yeah NHC just highlighted a new area to watch, difference here is this wave is much farther south compared to the one that became Fiona, model guidance is going nuts with this one lol