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Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 11:26 am
by dp6
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Sep 06, 2022 10:39 am
We have dealt with hurricanes on the Texas coast up to mid-October, though certainly many more hit in September.
Yeah, that's why I specified, "major hurricane". I'm mainly concerned with hurricanes strong enough and close enough to do major wind damage in Houston (since the flood risk is pretty much year-round). So that can be narrowed down to landfalls between Matagorda Bay and somewhere east of High Island. Went back to 1900 on Wikipedia (I know, I know) looking for hurricanes in that window.
I missed the only major to hit in that area after Sept 13 (Ike was Sept 13), a 1941 cat 3(?) that came in near Bay City on Sept. 23.
Non-major hurricanes after Sept 13 were:
Oct 4, 1949 - (strong) Cat 2 at Freeport
Oct 16, 1989 - Cat 1 Jerry at Galveston
So the old wives tale is almost true after Sept. 23, but the 1949 exception is close enough to a major to require an asterisk. Darn, I could see our current odd season producing another exception.
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 11:52 am
by Cromagnum
Shoot. The Cat 1 we got last year cost me $1500 in roof damage as it was.
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 1:38 pm
by snowman65
first noticable front predictions.... anyone?
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 2:03 pm
by tireman4
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Morning storms north of the area have collapsed. However, there is
a good likelihood they restart this afternoon, and make their way
south into the early evening. This is reflected in a period of
VCTS at all terminals beginning at 20Z in the north and carrying
on to 02Z near the coast. Have a TEMPO in place for a couple hours
at UTS, CXO, and IAH. Might be needed at HOU/SGR as well, but not
enough confidence to include them just yet. Once storms restart,
will be better able to determine what, if any, TEMPOs are needed
farther south.
Beyond that, looking for clearing and calmer conditions overnight,
but do have a few 09/10 placeholder lines just in case some
isolated spots of fog crop up. Don`t have to get too much into
tomorrow`s activity just yet, but do have a brief window for
streamer showers at LBX and GLS.
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 2:06 pm
by Cromagnum
tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 2:03 pm
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Morning storms north of the area have collapsed. However, there is
a good likelihood they restart this afternoon, and make their way
south into the early evening. This is reflected in a period of
VCTS at all terminals beginning at 20Z in the north and carrying
on to 02Z near the coast. Have a TEMPO in place for a couple hours
at UTS, CXO, and IAH. Might be needed at HOU/SGR as well, but not
enough confidence to include them just yet. Once storms restart,
will be better able to determine what, if any, TEMPOs are needed
farther south.
Beyond that, looking for clearing and calmer conditions overnight,
but do have a few 09/10 placeholder lines just in case some
isolated spots of fog crop up. Don`t have to get too much into
tomorrow`s activity just yet, but do have a brief window for
streamer showers at LBX and GLS.
Already starting to re-form in our northern counties.
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 2:09 pm
by Stratton20
snowman65 might get a weak front in here next week that may lower dew points, but if your looking for a legit fall front, its going to be at least another 3-4 weeks for that
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:36 pm
by jasons2k
Will the outflow outrun it (again)?
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:50 pm
by jasons2k
Two frames later it’s already weakening. Sounds about right on cue.
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:04 pm
by Cromagnum
I sense a magician trick right around the Tomball-Old Town Spring line, only to reappear around I-10.
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:07 pm
by jasons2k
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:04 pm
I sense a magician trick right around the Tomball-Old Town Spring line, only to reappear around I-10.
South County Forcefield Activated, Sir!
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:18 pm
by jasons2k
It is raining. Some. A lot more bark than bite though. I probably have more tree limbs falling than raindrops so far. Still lots of lightning nearby so a small chance to get soaked before it’s over.
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:31 pm
by DoctorMu
jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:50 pm
Two frames later it’s already weakening. Sounds about right on cue.
Backdoor front donut for me.
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:32 pm
by jasons2k
Up to 0.01”
I will have to say I don’t think I’ve ever had this much lightning in such close range and had so little rain to show for it. Ever. I’m getting a TON of loud, bright, close lightning flashes and barely a sprinkle.
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:37 pm
by Stratton20
Last day of “widespread “ rain chances before ridging dominates our weather again, next 10-12 days look dry, can we just skip to winter please?
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:51 pm
by jasons2k
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:04 pm
I sense a magician trick right around the Tomball-Old Town Spring line, only to reappear around I-10.
Sure enough, the line is starting to glow red again as it approaches I-10. Might even spark another warning.
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 5:03 pm
by user:null
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:37 pm
Last day of “widespread “ rain chances before ridging dominates our weather again, next 10-12 days look dry,
can we just skip to winter please?
That would only lead to even less chances of heavy, soaking rainfall.
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 5:05 pm
by Cromagnum
jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:51 pm
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:04 pm
I sense a magician trick right around the Tomball-Old Town Spring line, only to reappear around I-10.
Sure enough, the line is starting to glow red again as it approaches I-10. Might even spark another warning.
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 5:09 pm
by Stratton20
user:null i dont care about the rain as ive gotten plenty of it, i just want those colder temps, im over these 90 degree temps lol
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 5:09 pm
by srainhoutx
We had more rain earlier today after a Labor Day Weekend washout. Currently 68F at 5:45 local time. Fall is coming quickly folks.
Re: September 2022
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 5:13 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:37 pm
Last day of “widespread “ rain chances before ridging dominates our weather again, next 10-12 days look dry, can we just skip to winter please?
Yeah the SOI started going positive again. Back to a boring weather pattern. That CPC forecast for September calling for above normal rain probably isn’t going to verify.