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Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 12:08 pm CMC is on board with the Euro and GFS eastern solutions now. Besides Ike, have we ever had one this far north "shoot the gap" between Florida and Hispaniola and come our way? I know some have certainly tried it, but then turned north into Florida or Alabama.

Yes, there’s been quite a few actually. Don’t know the names or anything but I’ve seen the climatology tracks.

Looks lime the 12z Euro is beginning to cave towards the CMC solution

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:58 pm Looks lime the 12z Euro is beginning to cave towards the CMC solution

As in coming west into the Gulf?

Sambucol not quiet but very close, goes right up the spine of florida, ridging is stronger on this run, not as strong as the CMC, but a similar setup really, last run was out to sea, this was a huge shift west

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:58 pm Looks lime the 12z Euro is beginning to cave towards the CMC solution

Like I said yesterday that’s a plausible solution if it stays weak from getting tangled up in the islands. It would miss the trough and get caught under the ridge building to its north and be forced further west.

I shouldn’t have taken a nap because I woke up to the Euro going a bit west. I’ll watch this one closer. If it gets in the GOM that could be bad. Yesterday, if I’m recall correctly, the CMC had it coming in at Galveston/Houston. The CMC might have it right with this one.

Thing thing is completely exposed. I would not be surprised if it dies off completely like this.

https://imgur.io/LV6P42l

My rain chances for Saturday have been lowered down to 40%.

I’m shocked.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:38 pm My rain chances for Saturday have been lowered down to 40%.

I’m shocked.

It never was supposed to rain much north of I-10 so it never should’ve been that high to begin with.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:10 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:38 pm My rain chances for Saturday have been lowered down to 40%.

I’m shocked.

It never was supposed to rain much north of I-10 so it never should’ve been that high to begin with.

I was being sarcastic

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:42 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:10 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:38 pm My rain chances for Saturday have been lowered down to 40%.

I’m shocked.

It never was supposed to rain much north of I-10 so it never should’ve been that high to begin with.

I was being sarcastic

Lol yeah I know. I’m just surprised it was a high chance there to begin with.

If current trends continue, all of a sudden Florida and the southeast needs to watch Fiona. The 18z gfs took a big step towards the Euro. North Caribbean island runners love offering up suprises. :

Yeah, besides the 30% chance of Lucy tomorrow, this week's Omega Block become more serious next week. No TS is headed this week. If I had to guess, Fiona will be a Florida coast hugger on the Atlantic side. High and dry for us.

Dang it - hate to run the water tonight.

Any further waterings will have to be during the day, as we inch closer to brown patch season.

DoctorMu its simply to som to say that especially since Fiona is already a good 70 miles south of where models where initiating it today and its still moving to the WSW, if it keeps moving in that direction it could miss the weakness between the ridges entirely

Yeah, between FL and Bahamas is the GFS solution. CMC has another attack on LA refineries.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:26 pm DoctorMu its simply to som to say that especially since Fiona is already a good 70 miles south of where models where initiating it today and its still moving to the WSW, if it keeps moving in that direction it could miss the weakness between the ridges entirely

Almost irrelevant because almost all the models and ensembles feature a strong omega block.

I'm not buying the CMC.

It's not called the 'crazy uncle' for nothing. Huge shift to the right with the Canadian and more realistic with the other guidance.

Any signs of our first fall front yet?

what about the cluster building up behind Fiona?