Wx Infinity Forums

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Mother nature appears to be destined to produce shower and
thunderstorm activity over parts of the area today. Low level
moisture advection and enhanced surface convergence near the coast
are already producing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms early this morning over our coastal counties. PoPs
will increase further once we add daytime heating along with some
vorticity induced lift into the mix later today. There`s a little
uncertainty regarding how far inland rainfall will occur. I
suspect there will be at least isolated showers and storms in our
northern counties. However, the atmosphere will likely favor the
southern half of the CWA today regarding PoPs. Temperatures will
be warm and humidity will be higher than recent days. But it won`t
be too hot with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
PoPs will decrease quickly with the loss of daytime heating this
evening. Coastal showers are possible after midnight tonight.

If you like the weather today, then tomorrow may be right up your
alley! However, there will be some differences between today and
tomorrow. The looming building ridge (spoken at length in the
long range discussion) may already be in its early formation
stages tomorrow suggesting less lift to work with. In addition,
the mid levels may be a tad drier tomorrow. These trends are not
expected to be enough to cancel out the typical summer diurnal
and mesoscale forces that so often spark at least isolated
convection. Therefore, there remains a chance of isolated to
scattered shower and storms tomorrow with the best chance being
over the southern half of the CWA. However, PoPs are estimated to
be lower on Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be a little
warmer as well. Expect the daily PoPs to decrease further as the
ridge builds early next week. More on the ridge and the coming
heat below!

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Well, for those who prefer it on the hot side, get excited - by
Sunday morning, we`ll be looking for a mid-level ridge to be
building in over Texas, and both the NAEFS and Euro ensemble mean
heights at 500 mb look to exceed the 90th percentile later on
Sunday, and carry through much of the week. At its peak, this
ridge in both the deterministic GFS and Euro reaches 595 dm.

With stacked ridging, and midlevel geopotential heights reaching
back up into summer-like levels, it`s probably no surprise that
the forecast temperatures trend upwards next week. A bulk of the
guidance doesn`t really do a whole lot with this increasing
ridging, and holds temperatures in the lower 90s, while NBM
numbers rise more into the middle 90s for much of inland Southeast
Texas. It seems to me that taking the higher route here seems the
smarter choice. I even gave some thought to blending in some
portion of the higher end of the NBM distribution (probably 75th
percentile), but that`s starting to bring upper 90s and record
highs into the picture, and I`m not certain we`re quite looking at
that level of heat just yet. So, for now, the bias corrected boost
in the deterministic NBM seems enough.

Of course, with a return of summer-like conditions, we also start
wondering about rain chances. Will we be looking at something more
like the "ridge of death" dry summer, or more of the "scattered
afternoon storms every day" type of summer? And as far as that
goes, I`m definitely leaning towards the former. An abnormally
strong mid-level ridge implies extra subsidence for any updrafts
to overcome, which should suppress convection. Additionally, low
level flow looks to be more easterly or east-southeasterly, which
will decrease the fetch of onshore flow, and further sap the
necessary ingredients for diurnal storm development once you start
pushing in from the immediate coast. Progged precipitable water
matches up with this poorer moisture connection, dropping into the
1-1.25 inch range.

While ridging is building in and PWATs are still relatively high,
I`ve got some slight chance to chance PoPs nearer the coast and
Sunday, and even a bit on Monday, but generally wipe those out as
the ridge peaks towards mid-week. As the ridge`s strength begins
to wane late in the week, some of those coastal slight chance PoPs
should creep back into the picture.

Luchs

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Other than localized IFR conditions due to patchy fog, especially
near LBX, most areas are currently experiencing VFR conditions.
Any fog will break quickly this morning. The primary concern today
will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms. There have already
been showers and a few thunderstorms across coastal zones and in
Houston this morning. As the atmosphere heats up with daytime
heating, the chance of scattered thunderstorms will increase,
especially from Houston south. We continue to only indicate VCSH
for CXO and UTS. For terminals farther south, VCTS has been
included in the TAF.

Thunderstorm chances will decrease considerably once daytime
heating is lost this evening. A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings is
expected tonight. Some of the short range guidance indicates areas
of IFR ceilings by early tomorrow morning over our northern
terminals.

Self

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

A summer-like pattern is expected to return later in the weekend,
with broad surface high pressure situated to our east and lower
pressure to our west. Southeasterly winds should prevail through
the weekend into next week, before becoming more easterly or
east-southeasterly. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be
expected at times, particularly through the weekend and late next
week. Rain chances will be slim in the mid-week as high pressure
aloft peaks in strength. The fairly persistent winds, staying
generally in the 10-15 knot range, should keep seas in around 3
feet deep into next week.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 72 94 71 / 30 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 90 73 92 73 / 50 10 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 81 / 60 20 40 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...87

NOT concerned about Fiona at all.The storm wont get anywhere close to here...

The weather ahead truely sucks, there are no signs of a legit fall front in the next few weeks, above normal October and last few wekks of september are above normal , this year sucks in general for weather, im over the heat, can el nino just return already? I want cooler weather, sorry for the frustration haha I got sun poisoning this week because of the heat, but I think we can all agree that we want this warm weather gone

Mid 90’s return for the next 10 days due to an Omega Block

don wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:48 am NOT concerned about Fiona at all.The storm wont get anywhere close to here...

Yeah a couple days ago I thought maybe there was a small chance it could get into the Gulf and get trapped under the high but not anymore.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 12:14 pm The weather ahead truely sucks, there are no signs of a legit fall front in the next few weeks, above normal October and last few wekks of september are above normal , this year sucks in general for weather, im over the heat, can el nino just return already? I want cooler weather, sorry for the frustration haha but I think we can all agree that we want this warm weather gone

Mid 90’s return for the next 10 days due to an Omega Block

Yeah I guess we’ll just have to be patient. Next couple days there’s decent rain chances for my area but after that it’s back to what we had in June. Mid to upper 90’s and dry. I sure hope we get some rain. We already need it again. Parts of East Bernard yesterday got 3” just about 20 miles north of me. I got a few sprinkles lol. From everything I’m hearing it looks like maybe a return towards El Niño by April or May.

Cpv17 we got no rain in sight here with near 100 daily next week, brutal

Once again, blows up the second it passes me. Lucy timed it perfectly.

I just picked up 1.5 inches with an intense downpour that lasted about 15 minutes.

They are getting a lot of rain to my north. Dark clouds in that direction.

It's Lucy's Happy Hour here in CLL!


Then...Dry as a shaken, not stirred Martini for the next week.

Omega blocked.

Just got home from the El Campo football game and checked the rain gauge cuz I saw puddles in the driveway! Picked up half an inch woohoo!!

Welp. Return flow and now the humidity is back.

Fall humid, hot weather with no rain doesn't work for me.

If it's going to be dry, let it be dry with DPs in the lower 60s, 50s, below.

Highs get close to 100 here next week smh….
Im calling mother nature and asking for my money back, nothing but boos and thumbs down from me with this awful weather

Yeah, this is my real problem with Texas weather. And it's gotten worse with CC. The Spring can be humid in late April and May, but at least it rains and it's breezy - good for cooling. Texas summers are going to suck...but that comes with the territory. My problem is continuance of summer, especially with a high DP (73°F right now) into late September often October and even into November. Also, the wind dies down this time of the year, where like elsewhere the winds pick up and it gets cool. Back in NC from late Sept - early Nov it's more Indian Summer and Fall. Warm days, cooler nights. Actual FROPAs.

I hate running sprinklers here in Sept or October. It only worsens the brown patch in the last half of October. And has time has gone on, we see a lot less rain in Sept. and October than we used to, especially outside any tropical systems.

OK. Rant over.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:30 pm Yeah, this is my real problem with Texas weather. And it's gotten worse with CC. The Spring can be humid in late April and May, but at least it rains and it's breezy - good for cooling. Texas summers are going to suck...but that comes with the territory. My problem is continuance of summer, especially with a high DP (73°F right now) into late September often October and even into November. Also, the wind dies down this time of the year, where like elsewhere the winds pick up and it gets cool. Back in NC from late Sept - early Nov it's more Indian Summer and Fall. Warm days, cooler nights. Actual FROPAs.

I hate running sprinklers here in Sept or October. It only worsens the brown patch in the last half of October. And has time has gone on, we see a lot less rain in Sept. and October than we used to, especially outside any tropical systems.

OK. Rant over.

Seasons seem to be getting pushed back by a good month imo.

There are some spotty showers around. All Lucy so far.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 4:17 pm There are some spotty showers around. All Lucy so far.

It’s pretty isolated according to the radar. Consider yourself pretty lucky if you get anything today. I thought there would be greater coverage today. Guess not.

Interesting to see the CPC’s global tropics outlook, has above normall rainfall favored for the SW GOM/ BOC in the weeks 2-3 outlooks, interesting

Geeze.
Hurricane season cancel.
Fall cancel.
Summer contract extension.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Sep 18, 2022 11:09 am Geeze.
Hurricane season cancel.
Fall cancel.
Summer contract extension.

Yep. Fml