September 2022

[cperk]

GFS is still showing our first decent cold front around the 26th which will keep any system away from us.

If that cold front will even make it down here. If I recall correctly, a cold front was supposed to make it down here in time to keep Hurricane Ike away from us. Nope. The front didn’t make it in time, so I’m not counting on any cold front making it here in time. I hope it does. But not banking on it.

You are so right plus the Icon and the CMC has it missing that trough the Euro is late to the party as usual and the GFS has an east bias
so i'm not buying into it.

[tsb2107]

Correct, the front made it after Ike. I remember not having power for over two weeks and that cool front really helped cool things down.

[redneckweather]

GFS is still showing our first decent cold front around the 26th which will keep any system away from us.

If that cold front will even make it down here. If I recall correctly, a cold front was supposed to make it down here in time to keep Hurricane Ike away from us. Nope. The front didn’t make it in time, so I’m not counting on any cold front making it here in time. I hope it does. But not banking on it.

Correct but that was earlier in September (landfall Sept. 13th) and was a fairly weak front (lowered humidity levels). I'm thinking this will be a pretty legit front being late September. We will see.

[Rip76]

Correct, the front made it after Ike. I remember not having power for over two weeks and that cool front really helped cool things down.

It was like the next day I believe.

[tireman4]

Correct, the front made it after Ike. I remember not having power for over two weeks and that cool front really helped cool things down.

Ike helped to pull it down, if memory serves.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Light and variable wind will transition to the SE this afternoon
around 5-8 knots. With mostly clear skies and light/variable wind
overnight, areas of fog will be possible at some terminals. Have
included 6SM BR for this package, but lower visibility could be
included in future TAFs, mainly for SGR and LBX sites. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected through most of the period.

05

[Cpv17]

98L has a very slim chance at coming here. Not concerned about it at all. If this were 2 or 3 weeks back then I’d be more concerned.

[Stratton20]

Even if its a slim chance it still has to be watched, nothing is close to being set in stone, their is a significant spread in the ensembles still, we need to see where the low forms first, and it depends on the speed of the trough that models are showing picking up 98L in the gulf, if the trough moves out faster than what models are showing, that allows ridging to build in and force this more west, if the trough is slower to move out, 98L will feel the tug more NE and turn towards Florida, but for now Texas is certainly not out of the woods, 10-11 days from any sort of US impacts, alot will and can change, im cautiously optimistic this wont be our problem, but I am absolutely not writing it off either, very complicated forecast ahead

[cperk]

Nobody has any idea where 98L will be landfalling 10+ days out we've all seen this setup many times a system entering the western caribbean with a trough forecast to drop down and weaken the high enough to induce a turn to the N or NW but the fly in the ointment will be the timing and i've seen many people forecasting this situation 10 days out blowing it big time.

[AtascocitaWX]

Since we have not had any significate Storm in the Gulf this summer, Those waters are boiling. if this gets into the Gulf, Whoever gets this storm may be dealing with a monster.

[Iceresistance]

Since we have not had any significate Storm in the Gulf this summer, Those waters are boiling. if this gets into the Gulf, Whoever gets this storm may be dealing with a monster.

Other than PTC 4 that tried to become Danielle and Bonnie in July for the Caribbean, not much has occurred. It's a ticking time bomb waiting to explode.

On S2K earlier this month, I've predicted that the 'big one' will develop in the Caribbean or the GoM because of the mostly untapped waters sometime between Late September into October.

[davidiowx]

Correct, the front made it after Ike. I remember not having power for over two weeks and that cool front really helped cool things down.

It was like the next day I believe.

Yep, I remember that quite well. It definitely helped ease the heat the first couple days after landfall. I didn’t have power for 2 weeks and by the time it came back on, I was pretty much adjusted to 88 in the house lol.

[Cpv17]

Correct, the front made it after Ike. I remember not having power for over two weeks and that cool front really helped cool things down.

It was like the next day I believe.

Yep, I remember that quite well. It definitely helped ease the heat the first couple days after landfall. I didn’t have power for 2 weeks and by the time it came back on, I was pretty much adjusted to 88 in the house lol.

I got absolutely nothing from Ike other than a few clouds and 30mph gusts and you’re not that far from me. Crazy what just about 40 miles can make.

[Stratton20]

My whole backyard fence was gone along with someone trampoline that completely wrecked our deck, wasnt a pleasant experience from IKE

[davidiowx]

It was like the next day I believe.

Yep, I remember that quite well. It definitely helped ease the heat the first couple days after landfall. I didn’t have power for 2 weeks and by the time it came back on, I was pretty much adjusted to 88 in the house lol.

I got absolutely nothing from Ike other than a few clouds and 30mph gusts and you’re not that far from me. Crazy what just about 40 miles can make.

I was in the Med Center when Ike came through, about 3 miles east of Reliant Stadium. I got to experience the edge of the eye wall when it got calm. The change of wind direction was what really started tearing things up. It was insane. Wish I lived out here when Ike hit cause that was no fun at all!

[Iceresistance]

I reached 99°F today.

[srainhoutx]

I reached 99°F today.

I had a high of 76 today. Expecting upper 30’s Friday morning.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I reached 99°F today.

I had a high of 76 today. Expecting upper 30’s Friday morning.

Swoon.

[davidiowx]

I reached 99°F today.

I had a high of 76 today. Expecting upper 30’s Friday morning.

Rub it in why don’t ya!

[Scott747]

Lack of organization could allow 98l to get a little further w into the Caribbean. But for now there is fairly good consensus on the trough picking it up before moving any further w once it nears the gulf.

18z had the trough dig a little deeper but it wasn't as strong and eroded a little quicker but still enough of weakness to draw 98l north. Would need to see something like the 12z on Monday to cause even the slightest concern.