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From Wxman57 on S2K...


If I was a hurricane forecaster (which I am), I'd put my money on the FL Peninsula for now. Models are often too far west in this type of setup.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:38 am 6z Euro had a small shift w on the mid range. The disturbance is still quite far s and essentially beginning to crash into SA before it's supposed to begin lifting wnw, so I think there will continue to be subtle adjustments w through the Caribbean. However, we're getting into a window that there would need to start being a dramatic shift with the trough for any major deviations further w in the gulf, and as it stands currently the eastern part of the Gulf is the most at risk.

12z runs are playing out like I expected through the mid range. Noticeably w on the ICON and GFS....

Trough isn't fully capturing it through hr 156.

Misses the trough on the 12z GFS. Moving nw across Cozumel and Cancun into the Gulf.

Crawling through hr 216 about 200-300 miles s of the mississippi mouth.

Well GFS still ends up turning this NE once its clips the yucatan peninsula, however it is much further west in the short-medium range, it does miss the trough originally at hour 156, something to watch in future runs

VIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

VFR conditions will prevail. Some patchy fog is possible during
the early morning hours tomorrow for sites south of I-10 and west
of I-45, but it should not be as dense as we saw earlier this
morning. Otherwise, mostly clear skies with a few/sct clouds
possible each afternoon. Winds will be lgt/var until the afternoon
when it becomes southeasterly. Coastal sites should get light
offshore flow late tonight and through 18Z tomorrow due to the
land breeze.

&&

We’ll probably have to wait till sometime next year till we enter a wetter pattern. Might have a couple of rainy spells between now and then but I don’t really see us having above normal precip till sometime next year IF El Niño comes back.

Michael Pt. II?

18z GFS is way w midway through the run....

Exiting the YP near Merida around hr 165.

18z GFS looks like a near cat 5 staring down New Orleans, thats a nearly 175-200 mile jump conpared to the last run, these west trends need to be watched

Edit: Sharp NE Turn towards florifa panhandle but thays beyond 10 days

Scott747 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:45 pm 18z GFS is way w midway through the run....

Exiting the YP near Merida around hr 165.

Ends up getting about as far w as Grand Isle before drifting n towards the missip mouth. Landfall is similar to 12z as it scoots ne and near Pensacola.

Still not seeing anything that would concern our area. Missing the trough isn't enough. We would need to see a stronger rebuilding ridge for that to happen and so far there isn't any indication of that. For now.....

NOT coming here but someone east of us is going to get rocked looks like.

And still no signs of a legit fall front, im canceling my subscription to mother nature

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:19 pm We’ll probably have to wait till sometime next year till we enter a wetter pattern. Might have a couple of rainy spells between now and then but I don’t really see us having above normal precip till sometime next year IF El Niño comes back.

October is really the last chance to "rescue the year" in terms of getting a "heavy soaker" that would make the annual total more respectable. Due to the history of heavy rainfall events that month not nearly as common later in November and December.

user:null wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:13 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:19 pm We’ll probably have to wait till sometime next year till we enter a wetter pattern. Might have a couple of rainy spells between now and then but I don’t really see us having above normal precip till sometime next year IF El Niño comes back.

October is really the last chance to "rescue the year" in terms of getting a "heavy soaker" that would make the annual total more respectable. Due to the history of heavy rainfall events that month not nearly as common later in November and December.

It's getting really dry around here again. Three weeks without any rain. I think I need to cancel my subscription to Mother Nature too.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:41 pm Michael Pt. II?

I would be concerned if it was the last week of August or first couple of week of September. It is late in the game and unless a blocking High is going to setup east of us, no chance of that storm to make it West of New Orleans. Someone east of us is going to get hit hard unfortunately.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:17 pmIt's getting really dry around here again. Three weeks without any rain. I think I need to cancel my subscription to Mother Nature too.

True. September and October are valuable months for rainfall, especially in years like this where antecedent conditions fail in delivering as much. So, although these recent few days of nice warmth and cooler nights are nice, they aren't what is needed at this time in terms of allowing rainfall to catch up — dry warmth like this seems much better for November through March.

walsean1 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:34 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:41 pm Michael Pt. II?

I would be concerned if it was the last week of August or first couple of week of September. It is late in the game and unless a blocking High is going to setup east of us, no chance of that storm to make it West of New Orleans. Someone east of us is going to get hit hard unfortunately.

Exactly. That’s what I’ve been saying as well.

18z euro shift west from 12z

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:44 pm 18z euro shift west from 12z

Euro is west bias.
GFS is east bias.

And gfs has shifted west all day today and euro has been east

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:09 pm

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:44 pm 18z euro shift west from 12z

Euro is west bias.
GFS is east bias.

Normally, yes, but with this system it’s been the other way around. Weird.