Wx Infinity Forums

Its just the ICON, but 00z Is much further west, into the SW GULF near the BOC….. has a slightly stronger ridge building over florida

Here was Hurricane Ike for anyone that wants to "chase the snake". The front that was suppose to pull it away came too late.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/g ... p_5W.shtml

0z GFS continues to trend w ever so slightly. Comes off the YP again n of Merida and gets just w of Grand Isle before crawling in the central gulf through hr 213.

Windfield is off the charts. Coastal flooding would be an issue for the upper texas coast even with it that far away.

Slow movement nnw and now about 150 mi s of Morgan City/Houma.

Ends up making landfall in the same general area in about 10 days, so it's definitely grain of salt time.

Mentioned earlier I thought central la would be about as w as we would see modeling unless there was a significant change. So far the connection with the trough is one but it's 'just' missing the it and lifting n quicker like the Euro is showing. Would then need to see anomalous ridging and that hasn't shown itself yet.

0z GFS wants to destroy NOLA.

Ridge is stronger o. this run, my goodness thats a large windfield on the GFS, even on that track the upper texas coast could still see significant impacts

So here's the bad news as everyone wakes up this morning....

6z GFS continues its rather substantial w trend with a large cat 3/4 about 200 mi e and s of Matagorda and Cameron moving n and making landfall just e of Cameron.

Here's the good news - It's still in the 10 day range and almost guaranteed to change. Not to mention that the GFS is now a rather extreme outlier to almost every other model.

Cmc doesn’t count worse model ever

Back home.......

0
FXUS64 KHGX 221120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022

The Autumn Equinox will see unseasonably warm weather as a mid to
upper level ridge continues to linger over Texas. Subsidence from
the ridge and dry air aloft will suppress convective development
during the day, keeping rain out of the forecast. Shortwave energy
rounding the bottom of the ridge will be accompanied by a slight
increase in PWATS, which may bring a few isolated showers and
storms over the Gulf of Mexico. Though, CAMs place much of this
development far offshore and away from our area. 850mb
temperatures pick up to around 19-21C during the day, which falls
above the 90th percentile for this time of year. This will bring
near-record temperatures for today as high reach the mid to upper
90s inland with some locations threatening to break triple digits.
Along the coast, highs will generally be in the mid to lower 90s.

Friday will see a slight weakening in the aforementioned upper
level ridge with lower heights and reduced subsidence. Moisture
also appears to be a tad higher with 850mb heights near 19-20C.
Overall, conditions will be largely similar to that of today, if
not slightly less warm, with near to potentially record breaking
highs on Friday.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Saturday and Sunday are still looking to be quite warm with near
record breaking high temperatures possible (see the Climate section
below for the Today through Sunday records). A drier and slightly
cooler airmass will begin to arrive to the area on Monday as our
recent heat ridge gets replaced with a building ridge out west and a
digging trough out east and helps to bring a cold front across
Southeast Texas. Significantly lowering dew points behind the front
will support cooler and more Fall-like overnight low temperatures
(50/60s inland and 60s coast) heading into the midweek period. For
those hoping for some rain, a majority of the area will likely stay
dry. Eyes might eventually need to turn toward the tropics (around
the middle to end of next week) for a potential cyclone moving out
of the western Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Patchy fog has developed across portions of SE Texas this
morning, mainly in areas south of I-10 and west of I-45. This fog
may bring IFR to VLIFR visibility to portions of this area,
especially at KLBX. All fog and accompanying CIGS should burn off
shortly after sunrise with VFR conditions prevailing throughout
the day. Light and variable winds this morning will become light
to moderate out of the E/SE this afternoon. Winds should become
light and variable once again this evening with clear skies
overnight.

03


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022

With a fairly weak pressure gradient remaining in place, a
landbreeze/seabreeze circulation and low seas should be prevalent
through the weekend. A more dominant, moderate NE/ENE flow will set
up Monday night into midweek in association with a cold frontal
boundary in the area and a tighter pressure gradient. Caution flags
might eventually be needed for increasing winds and/or building
seas.

42

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Here are the record high temperatures for today through Sunday.

CLL: Today - 102 set in 2005
Fri - 101 set in 1893
Sat - 101 set in 1892
Sun - 104 set in 2005

IAH: Today - 100 set in 2005
Fri - 96 set in 1993
Sat - 95 set in 2013
Sun - 99 set in 2005

HOU: Today - 99 set in 2005
Fri - 96 set in 2005
Sat - 94 set in 2013
Sun - 97 set in 2005

GLS: Today - 95 set in 2005
Fri - 93 set in 1998
Sat - 90 set in 2017
Sun - 101 set in 2005

PSX: Today - 100 set in 2005
Fri - 98 set in 2005
Sat - 100 set in 2005
Sun - 95 set in 1954

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 72 99 72 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 76 97 74 / 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 80 89 80 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...03
MARINE...42
CLIMATE...42

From Wxman 57 on S2K...

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.

Well guys the GFS shifted quite a bit on the 00Z and the 06Z and the Euro is land falling on the other side of the GOM now we wait for one to cry uncle.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:15 am From Wxman 57 on S2K...

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.

Maybe he will get this one right. I sure do like him during the winter season though when he shuts down all the snow talk when it appears in the models. It's easier to be right in those situations because it just doesn't snow down here. lol

redneckweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:41 am

tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:15 am From Wxman 57 on S2K...

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.

Maybe he will get this one right. I sure do like him during the winter season though when he shuts down all the snow talk when it appears in the models. It's easier to be right in those situations because it just doesn't snow down here. lol

Well, that...and he absolutely hates the cold.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:20 am

redneckweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:41 am

tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:15 am From Wxman 57 on S2K...

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.

Maybe he will get this one right. I sure do like him during the winter season though when he shuts down all the snow talk when it appears in the models. It's easier to be right in those situations because it just doesn't snow down here. lol

Well, that...and he absolutely hates the cold.

Well, knowing him personally ( like many folks on here), he does hate the cold. He is amenable to if it is snows, but he thinks it is a waste of cold without it. LOL

I though I would share this that was posted on twitter.

https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1572 ... ayt1LfBk5Q

walsean1 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:28 am I though I would share this that was posted on twitter.

https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1572 ... ayt1LfBk5Q

It is for Invest 98L

I don’t know how viable these guys are but I just wanted to share these other items about Invest 98L. He is talking about ridging building in which has me somewhat concerned especially since to storm has formed yet.

https://twitter.com/craigsetzer/status/ ... 75u_CgwAYA

Looks like the storm off the coast of Africa might snipe Hermine, leaving 98L to become Ian.

Either the GFS is seeing something that the other models are not or its going to be one of the biggest L’s the GFSZ has taken this season, the. to be fair none of the global models have been good this season

The main item is if the storm takes some time to form due to Wind shear, proximity to land , then the models are forecasting something that has yet to form

walsean1 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:35 am The main item is if the storm takes some time to form due to Wind shear, proximity to land , then the models are forecasting something that has yet to form

This is the key point right now. You can't initialize anything well until there is a center fix.