October 2022

[Stratton20]

Models are in agreement on a strong front arriving around the 17/18th, changes are coming folks

[DoctorMu]

Nothing exciting possible ahead?

CMC sees a FROPA in a week. GEPS as well. Then the Ensembles split - GEPS has a warm east and GEFS has a warm west after that. We're probably screwed either way.

BoC NVEST 93 is a question mark. It won't develop much allegedly, but direction is undecided.

Shear-ly it won't come this way and provide rainfall relief.

[Stratton20]

I can confidently say we are done with the 90’s after this week! We wont get anything from 93L, gets shoved into mexico, thats pretty much set in stone

[Iceresistance]

Nothing exciting possible ahead?

CMC sees a FROPA in a week. GEPS as well. Then the Ensembles split - GEPS has a warm east and GEFS has a warm west after that. We're probably screwed either way.

BoC NVEST 93 is a question mark. It won't develop much allegedly, but direction is undecided.

Shear-ly it won't come this way and provide rainfall relief.

It's now Karl, first track has this into Mexico in a SW Movement.

[JDsGN]

I can confidently say we are done with the 90’s after this week! We wont get anything from 93L, gets shoved into mexico, thats pretty much set in stone

I saw space city make that same claim... I wouldn't doubt another few hot 90+ days into early November with the lack of any moisture or clouds recently. The models were all over rain and a "real" front mid week this week as well and now we are looking at 90s through Saturday. I'm at the point of believing nothing until its 2-3 days out.

[Stratton20]

JDsGN a pattern change is coming regardless, high latitude blocking sets up near alaska allowing cooler air to spill south, trough sets up over the eastern 2/3rd of the US and we will get in on some of that cooler air, it is coming, just have to wait just a but more longer, the front this week was never forecast to be strong by the models, just a humidity breaker front lol

Edit*: Thats about as good of an agreement that you will ever see in the models on a strong fall front lol

[Cpv17]

Ensembles are looking decent for rain. Might see 1-2” over the next couple weeks. Hopefully the models don’t back off. Dry as a bone at my place again. 16” for the year so far. Over 20” below normal.

[JDsGN]

JDsGN a pattern change is coming regardless, high latitude blocking sets up near alaska allowing cooler air to spill south, trough sets up over the eastern 2/3rd of the US and we will get in on some of that cooler air, it is coming, just have to wait just a but more longer, the front this week was never forecast to be strong by the models, just a humidity breaker front lol

Edit*: Thats about as good of an agreement that you will ever see in the models on a strong fall front lol

It has to happen eventually but again.. look back at page 6 here and 6-10 forecast showed above avg rain and even a chance of possibly excessive rainfall etc… and it’s dry as a bone. This weekend is a huge disappointment to me because I have a drag race in Oklahoma and it’s going to be upper 80s. Quite a few models back 5 days ago were showing a good front this week.

[Stratton20]

JDsGN I get that, change is coming, its going to take about a week or so but cooler weather will be coming, not entirely convinced on the rainfall though

[DoctorMu]

JDsGN a pattern change is coming regardless, high latitude blocking sets up near alaska allowing cooler air to spill south, trough sets up over the eastern 2/3rd of the US and we will get in on some of that cooler air, it is coming, just have to wait just a but more longer, the front this week was never forecast to be strong by the models, just a humidity breaker front lol

Edit*: Thats about as good of an agreement that you will ever see in the models on a strong fall front lol

It has to happen eventually but again.. look back at page 6 here and 6-10 forecast showed above avg rain and even a chance of possibly excessive rainfall etc… and it’s dry as a bone. This weekend is a huge disappointment to me because I have a drag race in Oklahoma and it’s going to be upper 80s. Quite a few models back 5 days ago were showing a good front this week.

Yep, don't count your meteorological chickens...

[DoctorMu]

TWC app goes from a 96° high tomorrow to 69°F high next Wednesday

...I'll believe that...

[JDsGN]

TWC app goes from a 96° high tomorrow to 69°F high next Wednesday

...I'll believe that...

I feel like you can usually add 3-5* to the early fall fronts 5-7 day projected temps but man I'm gonna be ready after multiple hot humid mid October days. This mornings humidity hit me like a ton of bricks when i walked outside.

[Stratton20]

Usually when it comes to strong fronts, models tend to underestimate the strength a-lot, just something to keep in mind, but im with , im ready to kiss the 90’s bye bye! Good riddance haha

[redneckweather]

It is mid October so highs in the 60's with next week's front is very realistic. Come on with it!

[Stratton20]

NWS has a high of around 70-72 IN CS next Tuesday for my area, looks like they are starting to bite!

[DoctorMu]

It is mid October so highs in the 60's with next week's front is very realistic. Come on with it!

I've seen 60s for highs in October in Texas...but that was 30-40 years ago. It rarely happens now.

My guess is that this will modify to mid 70s in next week's forecast by the weekend.

[DoctorMu]

Usually when it comes to strong fronts, models tend to underestimate the strength a-lot, just something to keep in mind, but im with , im ready to kiss the 90’s bye bye! Good riddance haha

That's only shallow, dense polar air in the winter coming in faster than expected and outperforming.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu that is true, but regardless, bring on the 70’s! These 90 degree temps and humidity can go away !

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, most of the models have colder air is going east (again) on the FROPA. If we get a cool-off it's probably short-lived.

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu that is true, but regardless, bring on the 70’s! These 90 degree temps and humidity can go away !

Yeah, 90s and humidity are ridiculous, but welcome to the new normal SETX Fall.