October 2022

[Stratton20]

Looks like the GFS wants to take 91L’s circulation into the BOC and trap it there, that could help to send additional moisture towards the texas coast next week though

[jasons2k]

Jeff Linder alludes to it in his latest update. I’ll believe it when I see it.

[Stratton20]

Unfortunately after looking at the models again, it doesnt really matter if 91l’s circulation re enters the BOC, it will get trapped down their as the front coming down will block it, that essentially blocks the moisture from coming up to texas as well, looking like a dry frontal passage unfortunately

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071134
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Today is World Smile Day, which lines up perfectly since most of us
smile ear to ear when we hear the phrase "cold front" this time of
the year. However, this cold front in particular won`t be notable
with the bulk of the cold and dry air staying well to the north and
east of us within the upper level trough near the Great Lakes.
Since the front doesn`t pass through till later in the day, we`ll
still deal with above normal temperatures this afternoon with highs
in the low 90s for most locations. No rain is expected to accompany
FROPA. PW values will range from 1.0"-1.3" (right around the climo
mean: 1.28"), but the lowest ~2km will be fairly dry with LowRH in
high-res forecast soundings generally around 35%-40%. The end result
is likely virga or sprinkles at most, but we`ll for sure see an
increase in cloud cover lasting into the overnight hours.

The increase in cloud cover will lead to Friday night`s temperatures
being warmer than Thursday night`s as most locations bottom out in
the mid to upper 60s with low 70s in the Houston metro area. The
cloud cover begins to scatter out from north to south early Saturday
morning as drier air aloft filters in as an 850mb high slides in
overhead and surface high pressure centers over the Central Plains.
Dry air heats efficiently, so Saturday will still be fairly warm
with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s. Temperatures will generally be
a degree or two "cooler" than Friday, so not much but it`s
something! For Saturday night, we`ll see temperatures about 3-5
degrees cooler than Friday night`s with lows in the low to mid 60s
with some upper 50s near the Piney Woods area.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

An upper level trough positioned over the AZ/NM region Sunday,
will weaken as it moves eastward and approaches the TX Panhandle
Monday. But with limited surface moisture (PWs of 1.0-1.2 inches)
and lift to work with, along with fairly dry mid levels, not
expected much rain to develop across Southeast TX. So our best
chance for rain still looks to occur next Wednesday with the
arrival of higher low level moisture associated to Tropical
Depression Thirteen moving into the eastern coast of Mexico. We
will probably see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
starting over the local waters Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning and expand inland during the day Wednesday. Another round
of scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Thursday, as a cold front moves through Southeast TX. Rain chances
wane Thursday night as the front continues to make it`s way
towards the Gulf waters.

As for temperatures, highs in the upper 80s to low 90s can be
expected throughout the work week, with Wednesday being the
warmest. The lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s inland and
in the upper 60s to low 70s along the coasts for most days, except
Wednesday overnight where lows will rise into the mid 60s to low
70s ahead of the upcoming cold front. Look forward to cooler
temperatures in the wake of the cold front.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

VFR conditions expected today with light VRB winds for most of SE
TX. A weak cold front will push through today, but dry air and
subsidence aloft will limit RA chances.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Light east to northeast winds expected and seas of 1 to 2 feet
expected today. A weak cold front will move over the local waters
late Friday into early Saturday, and will result in stronger
easterly winds Saturday, likely resulting in SCEC conditions
through Sunday morning. Light to occasionally moderate easterly
winds and seas of 3 to occasionally 5 feet can be expected Sunday
into mid week and may require Caution flags from time to time.

Rounds of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be
expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as Tropical Depression
Thirteen moves into the eastern coast of Mexico and associated
surge of moisture moves over the local area. The chance of rain
will continue into Thursday as a stronger cold front makes its way
across Southeast TX.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 65 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 92 69 91 64 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 73 84 73 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03

[Stratton20]

12z Euro is stronger with the trough and its associated front so their is a bigger cooldown associated with it, also 91L gets further N into the NW GOM to the east of deep south texas before making a sharp turn east towards florida due to the trough

[DoctorMu]

Euro is most aggressive with rain chances and temp drop in the middle of next week. CMC is next. I hope GFS is wrong.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu the CMC is even more aggressive with the front compared to the Euro, I want nothing to do with the GFS, that model has been absolutely atrocious this year

[Stratton20]

Models have backed off significantly on the front, don’t expect much, typical but not surprising, though some moisture from JULIA gets into the BOC and tries to redevelop somewhat, heads towards upper texas coast or Louisiana on the latest euro

[Cpv17]

Models have backed off significantly on the front, don’t expect much, typical but not surprising, though some moisture from JULIA gets into the BOC and tries to redevelop somewhat, heads towards upper texas coast or Louisiana on the latest euro

You’ll get your front eventually lol

[DoctorMu]

Models have backed off significantly on the front, don’t expect much, typical but not surprising, though some moisture from JULIA gets into the BOC and tries to redevelop somewhat, heads towards upper texas coast or Louisiana on the latest euro

It's back on GFS 12z.

[Stratton20]

I just want highs in the 70’s for a few days, cool mornings are nice but cooler afternoon temps are even better!

[Stratton20]

Long range Euro and CMC look nice and the CPC is starting to buy in! Fingers crossed folks!

[JDsGN]

I haven’t gotten to look at the models but my 15 day forecast on the weather ap has all but gotten rid of rain or a cold front this week.

[Stratton20]

JDsGN I wouldnt put a whole lot of stock into weather apps, they change everything minute lol, I use the NWS , CPC and tropical tidbits for useful guidance, the pattern ahead looks to favor below normal temps for the central and eastern US

[Cpv17]

JDsGN I wouldnt put a whole lot of stock into weather apps, they change everything minute lol, I use the NWS , CPC and tropical tidbits for useful guidance, the pattern ahead looks to favor below normal temps for the central and eastern US

Weather apps work ok for me. They just go by what the models are saying. NWS has blown several forecasts too and often change too just like weather apps. I can go on tropical tidbits and use a blend of models to make my own forecast. That’s what I do lots of times and sometimes I watch the news channels but the absolute worst one to watch is Fox especially if it’s Dr. Jim.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I have to agree Dr. Jim is pretty bad, ive seen some of his forecasts and I just laugh at how bad they bust sometimes, hopefully this pattern change comes to fruition, the 12z Euro is very bullish on the front late this upcoming weekend, highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 I have to agree Dr. Jim is pretty bad, ive seen some of his forecasts and I just laugh at how bad they bust sometimes, hopefully this pattern change comes to fruition, the 12z Euro is very bullish on the front late this upcoming weekend, highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s

That would be nice as long as the cooler temps and lower humidity don’t make me sick like it sometimes does lol

[JDsGN]

JDsGN I wouldnt put a whole lot of stock into weather apps, they change everything minute lol, I use the NWS , CPC and tropical tidbits for useful guidance, the pattern ahead looks to favor below normal temps for the central and eastern US

I’m pretty sure the weather channel ap just bases the forecast on a model that uses the GFS as a basis as it changes every model run. I don’t put a lot of stock into it but it’s easy to notice the trend and right now it looks warmer and drier for next week and weekend.

[brazoriatx]

Weather apps are just computer generated forecast with no real human input

[djmike]

Nothing exciting possible ahead?