October 2022

[brazoriatx]

Any good cold front on the way? Like you need to wear a jacket during the day not just the morning lol

[Cpv17]

Tomorrow I’ll be running in the afternoon. 47 too chilly for me.

Good way to get sick.

Myth.

I ran in single digits and teens regularly while in post grad work.

Yeah but cold weather doesn’t bother you. You love it.

[Cpv17]

Tomorrow I’ll be running in the afternoon. 47 too chilly for me.

Good way to get sick.

Not if you're prepared for it!

The air I breathe in would inflame my throat. My body doesn’t like low dew points combined with cold air. Only time I ever get sick is when cold fronts come in. Other than that I’m never sick. Usually I’ll get a cold or a sinus infection from it. Happens to me about 2-3 times during the colder months of the year. Crazy thing is though I still root for cold weather just because I think it’s really cool and it still fascinates me lol

[Cpv17]

Yep the system this Friday should bring more widespread rain to the area.Looks like a large MCS will move through with cyclogenisis forming a surface low over us..A caveat to seeing widespread precip is the possibility of the surface reflection forming in the gulf and robbing alot of moisture away from us.At least for now though early runs of the mesoscale models are coming in pretty wet.We'll see if Lucy decides to make an appearance or not LOL

There will also be a chance for severe weather with this as well. The SPC mentioned that all severe weather modes will be on the table.

[tireman4]

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Easterly flow will
persist through this afternoon between 5 to 10 knots, then light/variable
winds after sunset, then southeasterly flow beginning tomorrow morning
increasing to around 8 to 12 knots in the afternoon.

[Stratton20]

That typoon in the western pacific could have huge implications on the weather pattern around the middle of november, could help to disrupt the polar vortex

[sambucol]

https://youtu.be/9iqAfkiZ934
Pow Ponder regarding the Polar Vortex disruption in November

[Iceresistance]

QPF totals have increased to consistent 1 inch areas for SE Texas, some could get 2 inches.

Me? Up to 1 inch at best, but Y'all need it more now since I got 2 inches from the first storm system.

[Cpv17]

The 18z HRRR looks like a really good setup for widespread heavy rains across the area on Friday.

[don]

From HGX regarding Friday.

Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022

The aforementioned upper level low will be digging down through
Texas on Friday bringing our best chance of rain through the next
week. Expect to see some streamer showers with embedded
thunderstorms popping up across the area Friday morning with the
chance for thunderstorms increasing through the late morning into
the afternoon with the increase in daytime heating. As that upper
level low digs further down into Texas on Friday, a surface low
may begin to develop along the Texas coastline - this could keep
the majority of the precipitation along and off the coast on
Friday. However, with PWATS climbing to 1.8" and good upper level
support for storm development, thunderstorms are possible anywhere
across the area on Friday. Some of these storms, especially in
the late morning, will have the chance at becoming strong to
severe storms with all severe weather hazards possible with
strong, gusty winds being the main concern. Because of this, the
SPC has placed most of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk on Friday. The
cold front associated with the upper level low will swing through
Friday evening bringing an increase chance of more widespread
showers and thunderstorms. With the high PWATs, locally heavy
rainfall is possible in the afternoon, prefrontal storms and with
the storms along the front itself. WPC has placed the area in a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall, but with how dry we have
been I am not expecting much a flooding risk in the rural areas.
However, urban and low lying areas may get some minor flooding and
street ponding. So, if you are planning on going into Downtown
Houston Friday evening, make sure to plan accordingly. Once the
front pushes through late Friday, the chance of precipitation
rapidly falls for most of the area.

[DoctorMu]

Tomorrow I’ll be running in the afternoon. 47 too chilly for me.

Good way to get sick.

Myth.

I ran in single digits and teens regularly while in post grad work.

The cold doesn't bother me. Layers. Colds appear seasonal because more people especially up north are crowded together inside. Especially after this summer I never complain about cooler or cold weather!

When it was 5°F here in the Great Winter Storm, we had 6 inches of snow and ice on the ground and I was heating the house partly with the fireplace and gas stove and occasionally gas furnace when the power was on, we'd walk outside with our Labrador. She was in heaven.

The flu is truly seasonal. Colds and COVID are not, although it seems that way.

[Cromagnum]

Should be an interesting drive to central Texas for me Friday morning then.

[Cpv17]

Next Tuesday is also looking interesting on the GFS and CMC.

[DoctorMu]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022

Today has shaped up to be a fantastic fall day as high pressure
keeps the sky clear with afternoon temperatures in the low/mid
70s and dew points in the 30s. The clear skies and light winds
will lead to a chilly night tonight with lows in the low to mid
40s north of I-10, then upper 40s to low 50s along the coast. The
high pressure will slide to the east for tomorrow inducing a
southeasterly flow across the area bringing temperatures and
moisture levels up. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s with PWATs climbing back over an inch. Skies
for majority of the area will remain mostly sunny tomorrow, but
expect increasing clouds through evening into overnight hours as
that moist air creeps into the region.

While we are enjoying the great weather today, an upper level low is
moving through the Pacific Northwest and this low will be diving
down into the Southern Plains through the day on Thursday. As this
low approaches the area late Thursday, isolated to scattered showers
will begin to pop up across the southwestern portion of the region
(mainly the counties surrounding Matagorda Bay) and along the coast
late Thursday night into Friday morning. More information on this
system is below in the long term discussion.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022

The aforementioned upper level low will be digging down through
Texas on Friday bringing our best chance of rain through the next
week. Expect to see some streamer showers with embedded
thunderstorms popping up across the area Friday morning with the
chance for thunderstorms increasing through the late morning into
the afternoon with the increase in daytime heating. As that upper
level low digs further down into Texas on Friday, a surface low
may begin to develop along the Texas coastline - this could keep
the majority of the precipitation along and off the coast on
Friday. However, with PWATS climbing to 1.8" and good upper level
support for storm development, thunderstorms are possible anywhere
across the area on Friday. Some of these storms, especially in
the late morning, will have the chance at becoming strong to
severe storms with all severe weather hazards possible with
strong, gusty winds being the main concern. Because of this, the
SPC has placed most of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk on Friday. The
cold front associated with the upper level low will swing through
Friday evening bringing an increase chance of more widespread
showers and thunderstorms. With the high PWATs, locally heavy
rainfall is possible in the afternoon, prefrontal storms and with
the storms along the front itself. WPC has placed the area in a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall, but with how dry we have
been I am not expecting much a flooding risk in the rural areas.
However, urban and low lying areas may get some minor flooding and
street ponding. So, if you are planning on going into Downtown
Houston Friday evening, make sure to plan accordingly. Once the
front pushes through late Friday, the chance of precipitation
rapidly falls for most of the area. Isolated light showers may
linger across the northern third of the region into dawn hours of
Saturday morning as some wrap around moisture interacts with the
slow to depart upper level low. Temperatures on Friday will be in
the low to mid 70s with lows Friday night in the low to mid 50s.

High pressure builds in the wake of the low bringing us dry and cool
to seasonal conditions through at least Tuesday. High temperatures
over the weekend upper 60s to low 70s with overnight lows in the
upper 40s to low 50s. South to southeasterly flow returns for the
start of next week increasing highs into the mid to upper 70s on
Monday and then to near 80 on Tuesday. PWATs begin to climb again on
Tuesday to the 1.6 to 1.8" range bringing back a chance for
precipitation for the coastal regions.

The weather Halloween night (Monday) looks to be more treat than
trick with temperatures in the low to mid 70s through 7pm with
light winds and no chance for precipitation.

Fowler

[Cromagnum]

a surface low
may begin to develop along the Texas coastline - this could keep
the majority of the precipitation along and off the coast on
Friday

Will be sure to water our plants before we leave then.

[redneckweather]

Pretty nasty weather day tomorrow ahead of the front. Come on rain!

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff. The HPC maps show most of Houston Metro solidly inside the purple zone (1.5” +). They showed the same thing a couple of days before the system earlier this week so I’ll believe it when I see it.

Strong storm system will bring strong thunderstorms and heavy rains on Friday.

Mid latitude trough is digging into the SW US this morning and will begin to move eastward toward TX later today. Surface pressures over the Big Country of TX will begin to fall this afternoon as low pressure develops ahead of the approaching mid level low. Southeast winds will increase today allowing Gulf moisture to quickly return to coastal TX.

Mid latitude system will reach west TX early Friday with a northward moving warm front developing from the mid TX coast into SE TX…this boundary will become increasingly important with any severe threat for Friday. Surface low pressure that forms later today over NW TX will move SE toward coastal TX on Friday with large scale lift increasing through the morning into the afternoon. Tropical moisture will be brought quickly northward tonight on a 30kt low level jet with PWS of 1.8 inches by Friday morning over much of the region. As large scale lift increases over the developing warm sector, showers and thunderstorms will develop from southwest to northeast across the region. Cold front associated with the mid level low will sweep west to east across SE TX Friday afternoon with a line of thunderstorms. Mid level system will slow some into Friday night with lingering showers into the overnight hours over the area.

Severe Threat:
NW TX surface low is expected to track along a NW to SE positioned warm front on Friday. Best estimates is that this warm front will extend from near San Antonio to near Freeport during the day with a favorable warm sector air mass south of this boundary for strong to severe thunderstorms. Low level winds near the warm front will back to the ESE and this will enhance low level storm rotation with any SW to NE moving storms that cross over the boundary. Warm fronts can be notorious for tornado production when otherwise instability is low due to the enhanced wind fields near the boundary. Main concern is any discrete cells that develop ahead of the line of storms approaching from the west or cells that cross over the warm front. Depending on exactly where the warm front sets up on Friday morning will determine the area of greatest severe risk on Friday with areas along and south of the front having the highest risk. While currently just SW of the metro area, should the warm front move a few 10’s of miles further north this would tend to bring the higher risk threat into the Houston metro area. By midday a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over SC/C TX and move eastward across the region Friday afternoon…damaging winds will be the main threat with this line. Current think is much of the strong and severe thunderstorm threat will be over be 3-5 pm on Friday, but lighter rains may linger well into the evening hours.

Heavy Rainfall:
Moisture profiles deepen quickly overnight and by Friday morning a saturated air mass will be in place over the region. Strong divergent lift coupled with favorable low level inflow feed of moisture point toward heavy rainfall along with cell training from southwest to northeast. I am always wary of any sort of low level boundary that can help focus or sustain convection in the region and tomorrow there will be a slow moving warm front. These setups can help anchor and train convection and the overall pattern favors high precipitation supercell formation with both a tornado and heavy rainfall risk. Much of the heavy rainfall risk will depend on if storms can develop over the warm sector ahead of the main line as these storms could become significant rainfall producers. Will need to monitor the warm sector air mass and development Friday morning to see if storms can become sustained along the warm frontal boundary. Good news in this setup is the ground is dry and can handle several inches of rainfall. Rainfall rates may exceed localized drainage capacities and result in some street flooding regardless of the dry ground conditions.

Weekend:
Mid level system will be located over NE TX Saturday morning with much cooler and drier air mass filtering in from the NW. Low level moisture is likely to become trapped in the wrap around flow on the backside of the mid level low and result in an extensive cloud deck for areas along and north of I-10. It is hard to know when these clouds may erode and they could linger much of the day keeping temperatures in the 50’s under cold air advection and northerly winds. South of the cloud line temperatures will warm into the 70’s and where that line will be Saturday is questionable. Clouds should erode Saturday night with mostly clear skies on Sunday and mild.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[Cromagnum]

We are driving out to central Texas and were hoping to leave Houston at 6 AM. Do we need to leave earlier? Trying to avoid navigating through the worst of it.

[DoctorMu]

NWS has 100% chance of rain in the forecast for Friday. Wow. Mostly in the AM.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271141
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

Today we begin to transition to a more active weather pattern as an
upper level shortwave trough over the Four Corners/Rockies begins to
dig SE towards the Southern Plains. The surface low associated with
this system should deepen as it dips SSE from the TX/OK Panhandle.
This will strengthen onshore flow, increasing moisture advection and
allowing dewpoints to rise back into the 50s/60s. This should also
improve WAA and bring highs in upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon.

The aforementioned upper level trough will settle in over the TX
Panhandle tonight. Shortwave energy from the trough will begin to
pass overhead, coinciding with the arrival of an upper level jet
streak. Surging Gulf moisture will allow PWATS to rise to around 1.2-
1.8" across the region. This ample moisture and forcing should allow
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop later tonight
ahead of an approaching cold front. Activity should become more
widespread heading into Friday morning as the upper level trough
continues east, becoming a cutoff low. These storms will have to
potential to become strong to severe at times with the main area of
concern being along our southwestern counties near Matagorda bay.
This region features high dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s
with MLCAPE ranging between 1500-2000 J/KG late morning/afternoon
hours on Friday. DCAPE sits at around 1000-1200 J/KG with low MLLCL
heights around 500m. SPC currently has this area under a slight risk
of severe weather for Friday with the remainder of our CWA under a
marginal risk. The primary hazard from these storms will be severe
gusty winds, though any discrete cells will still be capable of
producing all other severe hazards. Hail remains less so of a threat
given unfavorable lapse rates and high moisture in the mid to lower
levels. Tornadoes and waterspouts remain a possibility as well with
SRH nearing 150 m2/s2 in the lowest 1km with 50-100 J/kg of 3km
CAPE. These threats are still contingent on the front`s timing,
though current model trends have been less progressive with its
passage.

High moisture and a deep warm cloud layer will allow for some of
these storms to produce locally heavy rain, especially so as
widespread showers and storms develop along the front late Friday
afternoon. Currently WPC has our area under a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall for Friday. Dry conditions should mitigate the
threat of heavy rain in most rural areas, though urban and low
lying areas will be at risk of minor flooding and street ponding.

These showers and thunderstorms should taper off Friday night as the
front exists our area. A few lingering showers will be possible from
wrap-around moisture, though otherwise it should set us up for
cooler weather this weekend as northwesterly flow settles in across
SE Texas.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

As the storm system moves further off to the east and surface high
pressure builds into the area over the weekend, expect cool night
and mild days with lows mainly in the 50s and highs in the 60s/70s.
Breezy/windy conditions on Saturday morning will come down significantly
as the day progresses, and these lighter winds will persist into Sunday.
Some wraparound clouds on Saturday (mainly near and especially to the
north of the Interstate 10 corridor) should be out of our area by late
Saturday night or Sunday. The surface high over the area on Monday will
move off to the east on Tuesday with east to southeast winds developing
in its wake. At this time, it still appears that most of the rain with
the next system (Tuesday/Wednesday) will be near the coast and coastal
counties and especially offshore as much of the area gets back to partly
to mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures will be back in the 70s
Monday/Tuesday and in the 70s/80s Wednesday/Thursday.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

VFR conditions should prevail throughout the day with light winds
becoming E/SE this morning then variable in the evening.
Scattered showers and light to moderate E/SE flow should develop
late tonight in advance of a cold front. Activity will increase
into Friday morning as more widespread storms and MVFR CIGS
develop across SE Texas. The strongest of these storms will be
capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rain at times.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

Increasing east to southeast winds can be expected today and tonight
as high pressure moves off to the east. On Friday, look for strengthening
southeast winds and building seas along with increasing chances of showers
and thunderstorms as a storm system moves into the area. Some of the
storms could become strong or severe. Caution flags and possible advisories
can be expected both ahead of the storm system with the onshore flow
on Friday and behind the storm system with the offshore flow Friday
night through Saturday or Saturday night. The offshore flow may also
lead to abnormally low tides in the Bays on Saturday. Expect winds and
seas to be on a decreasing trend Sunday and Sunday night as high pressure
settles into the area. East to southeast winds return to the area Monday
night and Tuesday as the high moves off to the east.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 60 69 54 / 0 50 100 30
Houston (IAH) 78 60 73 57 / 0 40 90 50
Galveston (GLS) 75 69 76 60 / 0 50 80 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$