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Nothibg to worry about for folks along the gulf coast, stout blocking high pressure will shove 91L into CA

Noticing my plants and areas of grass are withering away from no rain. Had to bring hose out today. Hopefully we start to see some moisture soon. Don’t think Ive ever gone this long without looking at a radar just knowing there is nothing to look at… Lol

I'm 12-14 inches below normal right now, this is really bad.

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:58 am Noticing my plants and areas of grass are withering away from no rain. Had to bring hose out today. Hopefully we start to see some moisture soon. Don’t think Ive ever gone this long without looking at a radar just knowing there is nothing to look at… Lol

Expect that to continue for quite a while. No rain in sight.

The Euro continues to advertise a much stronger fall front around the 12th or so

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:22 pm The Euro continues to advertise a much stronger fall front around the 12th or so

The CPC thinks it slides east of us.

Cpv17 of course they do

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Tranquil conditions are expected to continue as mid to upper level
ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across Southeast
TX. We will continue to have a subtle warming trend as low level
moisture increases very gradually. The highs today will be in the
mid to upper 80s and in the upper 80s to low 90s on Wednesday. Lows
tonight will be in the mid 50s to low 60s inland and in the upper
60s to low 70s along the coasts. Lows will be a degree or two warmer
on Wednesday night.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

In honor of today being National Taco Day (The Ultimate Taco Tuesday
of Taco Tuesdays) and with the trend of rather uneventful weather
continuing, let`s have a little AFD fun! See if you can spot all of
the hidden taco related puns below. There`s not too much to taco
`bout, but lettuce begin!

Going into Thursday, an upper level trough will be moving
southeasterly through southeastern Canada and eventually through the
northern portion of the Upper Midwest. As the southeasterly
progression continues, the trough begins to deepen as well and
results in a cold front pushing into Texas on Saturday. Now this is
nacho ordinary FROPA as the bulk of the cooler and drier air will
remain north and east of us. However, it`ll briefly guac back the
temperatures as we exchange highs in the upper 80s/low 90s Thursday-
Saturday for highs in the mid to upper 80s into early next week.
Surface high pressure does build in behind this front over the
Central Plains with an 850mb high directly overhead. So, with mostly
clear skies and light winds, we`ll see a return to the chili
temperatures as lows return to the upper 50s/low 60s beginning on
Saturday night.

As the surface high pressure scoots out to the east, onshore flow
makes a return early next week. This means that a gradual increase
in moisture and temperatures is in store for us, but maybe only
briefly. It`s a little early to spill the beans, but global models
are in agreement on another upper level trough digging down into the
Northern Plains midweek. It doesn`t appear to be anything spe-
shell as of yet and there is quite a bit of variance on the speed
and deepness of this trough, which explains the growing range
between the upper and lower MaxT NBM quartiles after Tuesday. Long
story short...this trough may end up being the source of our next
cold front. Stay tuned!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

VFR conditions with light VRB winds throughout the TAF period.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Light winds and low seas (1-3 feet) will persist through Saturday
when the next cold front arrives. Following the front on
Saturday, moderate northeasterly to easterly winds and elevated
seas (3-5 feet) will prevail through the remainder of the weekend.
Winds and seas begin to gradually subside going into Sunday night.
As a result of the postfrontal increasing winds, caution/advisory
flags will likely be needed over the weekend.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 59 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 62 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 73 85 73 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

The GFS is still pushing a major front. With rain on Oct. 12/13. Euro has a weaker front. CMC brings the front into TX where it stalls.

DoctorMu CMC has a massive cooldown behind that front, could help to potentially weaken ridging over the gulf and draw 91L northward

How far west would 91L be by the time that front makes a difference?

Cromagnum on the CMC run, it gets tugged into the BOC and pulled north but still well south of brownsville and kind of just meanders there, but would like get pulled N or NE because thats a really strong trough digging down into the gulf

Fingers crossed for the Euro and CMC runs! Big shot of chilly canadian air associated with a big dip in the jet developing, i suspect the CPC will trend towards below average temps in the 8-14 day range for texas, this trough has been well advertised in the euro and cmc

I wouldn’t have your hopes up.

It’s like me with sports. When I expect my team to lose and they end up losing it doesn’t hurt as bad but when I expect them to win and they end losing it stings like a you know what lol

Cpv17 im not, but its been showing up consistently and the CPC is trending towards it in their 8-14 day outlook, climatologically wise, thats usually around the time when we get our fist really atrong fall front, odds are increasing,
Im not gonna bother with the GFS, that model has lost all credibility this year

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:27 pm Cpv17 im not, but its been showing up consistently and the CPC is trending towards it in their 8-14 day outlook, climatologically wise, thats usually around the time when we get our fist really atrong fall front, odds are increasing

If I remember correctly I think we’ve been getting our first legit front right around Halloween or a bit before it past few years but can’t remember for sure.

CPV17 l I think its usually around mid month of October or something like that, hopefully it does verify as both models show rain with the frontal passage, also could potentially have an effect on 91L

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:30 pm CPV17 l I think its usually around mid month of October or something like that, hopefully it does verify as both models show rain with the frontal passage, also could potentially have an effect on 91L

I’m just excited there’s a chance of rain in about 7-8 days but knowing the background state watch that disappear.

Cpv17 watch by tommorow models will be showing a blow torch again lol, hopefully im wrong! Fingers crossed for that front

Good grief, Daily SOI is nearly at +40.

But, at least there is this from the CPC.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Mid-October ... l-risk.png