Page 5 of 19
Re: October 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 11:13 am
by Stratton20
Models are in agreement on a strong front arriving around the 17/18th, changes are coming folks
Re: October 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 2:56 pm
by DoctorMu
djmike wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 10:36 am
Nothing exciting possible ahead?
CMC sees a FROPA in a week. GEPS as well. Then the Ensembles split - GEPS has a warm east and GEFS has a warm west after that. We're probably screwed either way.
BoC NVEST 93 is a question mark. It won't develop much allegedly, but direction is undecided.
Shear-ly it won't come this way and provide rainfall relief.
Re: October 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:07 pm
by Stratton20
I can confidently say we are done with the 90’s after this week! We wont get anything from 93L, gets shoved into mexico, thats pretty much set in stone
Re: October 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:20 pm
by Iceresistance
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 2:56 pm
djmike wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 10:36 am
Nothing exciting possible ahead?
CMC sees a FROPA in a week. GEPS as well. Then the Ensembles split - GEPS has a warm east and GEFS has a warm west after that. We're probably screwed either way.
BoC NVEST 93 is a question mark. It won't develop much allegedly, but direction is undecided.
Shear-ly it won't come this way and provide rainfall relief.
It's now Karl, first track has this into Mexico in a SW Movement.
Re: October 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:17 pm
by JDsGN
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:07 pm
I can confidently say we are done with the 90’s after this week! We wont get anything from 93L, gets shoved into mexico, thats pretty much set in stone
I saw space city make that same claim... I wouldn't doubt another few hot 90+ days into early November with the lack of any moisture or clouds recently. The models were all over rain and a "real" front mid week this week as well and now we are looking at 90s through Saturday. I'm at the point of believing nothing until its 2-3 days out.
Re: October 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:29 pm
by Stratton20
JDsGN a pattern change is coming regardless, high latitude blocking sets up near alaska allowing cooler air to spill south, trough sets up over the eastern 2/3rd of the US and we will get in on some of that cooler air, it is coming, just have to wait just a but more longer, the front this week was never forecast to be strong by the models, just a humidity breaker front lol
Edit*: Thats about as good of an agreement that you will ever see in the models on a strong fall front lol
Re: October 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:06 pm
by Cpv17
Ensembles are looking decent for rain. Might see 1-2” over the next couple weeks. Hopefully the models don’t back off. Dry as a bone at my place again. 16” for the year so far. Over 20” below normal.
Re: October 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:27 pm
by JDsGN
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:29 pm
JDsGN a pattern change is coming regardless, high latitude blocking sets up near alaska allowing cooler air to spill south, trough sets up over the eastern 2/3rd of the US and we will get in on some of that cooler air, it is coming, just have to wait just a but more longer, the front this week was never forecast to be strong by the models, just a humidity breaker front lol
Edit*: Thats about as good of an agreement that you will ever see in the models on a strong fall front lol
It has to happen eventually but again.. look back at page 6 here and 6-10 forecast showed above avg rain and even a chance of possibly excessive rainfall etc… and it’s dry as a bone. This weekend is a huge disappointment to me because I have a drag race in Oklahoma and it’s going to be upper 80s. Quite a few models back 5 days ago were showing a good front this week.
Re: October 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:30 pm
by Stratton20
JDsGN I get that, change is coming, its going to take about a week or so but cooler weather will be coming, not entirely convinced on the rainfall though
Re: October 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 11:49 pm
by DoctorMu
JDsGN wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:27 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:29 pm
JDsGN a pattern change is coming regardless, high latitude blocking sets up near alaska allowing cooler air to spill south, trough sets up over the eastern 2/3rd of the US and we will get in on some of that cooler air, it is coming, just have to wait just a but more longer, the front this week was never forecast to be strong by the models, just a humidity breaker front lol
Edit*: Thats about as good of an agreement that you will ever see in the models on a strong fall front lol
It has to happen eventually but again.. look back at page 6 here and 6-10 forecast showed above avg rain and even a chance of possibly excessive rainfall etc… and it’s dry as a bone. This weekend is a huge disappointment to me because I have a drag race in Oklahoma and it’s going to be upper 80s. Quite a few models back 5 days ago were showing a good front this week.
Yep, don't count your meteorological chickens...
Re: October 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 11:53 pm
by DoctorMu
TWC app goes from a 96° high tomorrow to 69°F high next Wednesday
...I'll believe that...
Re: October 2022
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:10 am
by JDsGN
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 11:53 pm
TWC app goes from a 96° high tomorrow to 69°F high next Wednesday
...I'll believe that...
I feel like you can usually add 3-5* to the early fall fronts 5-7 day projected temps but man I'm gonna be ready after multiple hot humid mid October days. This mornings humidity hit me like a ton of bricks when i walked outside.
Re: October 2022
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:37 am
by Stratton20
Usually when it comes to strong fronts, models tend to underestimate the strength a-lot, just something to keep in mind, but im with , im ready to kiss the 90’s bye bye! Good riddance haha
Re: October 2022
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 11:31 am
by redneckweather
It is mid October so highs in the 60's with next week's front is very realistic. Come on with it!
Re: October 2022
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 11:45 am
by Stratton20
NWS has a high of around 70-72 IN CS next Tuesday for my area, looks like they are starting to bite!
Re: October 2022
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:21 pm
by DoctorMu
redneckweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 11:31 am
It is mid October so highs in the 60's with next week's front is very realistic. Come on with it!
I've seen 60s for highs in October in Texas...but that was 30-40 years ago. It rarely happens now.
My guess is that this will modify to mid 70s in next week's forecast by the weekend.
Re: October 2022
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:22 pm
by DoctorMu
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:37 am
Usually when it comes to strong fronts, models tend to underestimate the strength a-lot, just something to keep in mind, but im with , im ready to kiss the 90’s bye bye! Good riddance haha
That's only shallow, dense polar air in the winter coming in faster than expected and outperforming.
Re: October 2022
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:25 pm
by Stratton20
DoctorMu that is true, but regardless, bring on the 70’s! These 90 degree temps and humidity can go away !
Re: October 2022
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:25 pm
by DoctorMu
Yeah, most of the models have colder air is going east (again) on the FROPA. If we get a cool-off it's probably short-lived.
Re: October 2022
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:26 pm
by DoctorMu
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:25 pm
DoctorMu that is true, but regardless, bring on the 70’s! These 90 degree temps and humidity can go away !
Yeah, 90s and humidity are ridiculous, but welcome to the new normal SETX Fall.