November 2022

[Cpv17]

.90” here. I can honestly admit I’ve been getting very lucky with these past few events. Feeling very fortunate. The temp dropped about 20-25 degrees behind the front.

[djmike]

Wow that was a quick hard rain ! 3” in 30 min in Beaumont.

[don]

Its still pouring here right now. With more storms still developing to the west.

[djmike]

Im about to get another cell. It keeps back building.

[Cromagnum]

Wow that was a quick hard rain ! 3” in 30 min in Beaumont.

Of course Beaumont cashed in. I can't remember the last time it didn't. I got a measly half inch over here.

[Cpv17]

Wow that was a quick hard rain ! 3” in 30 min in Beaumont.

Of course Beaumont cashed in. I can't remember the last time it didn't. I got a measly half inch over here.

Lol yep. Rain capital of Texas.

[Stratton20]

the 00z GFS continues to get really interesting next week

[sambucol]

More info, please, Strat!

[Stratton20]

sambucol the GFS has been developing a strong coastal low around the 16th or so, and it has enough or just marginal enough cold air in place that a rain/snow mix begins to enter some NW SE Texas counties, ita within 6 days so it’s something to watch

[sambucol]

I hope it verifies!!

[brazoriatx]

Blah..basically north of hwy 1*5..

[Cpv17]

Blah..basically north of hwy 1*5..

Lol it’s okay. That’s a long ways off yet. Probably nothing will happen anywhere in southeast Texas but can’t rule it out completely. More than likely just going to be a cold rain for most of the state.

[Cpv17]

This is my thinking as of now. Next 7-10 days should be cold if not really cold at times. Then a slow warmup towards Thanksgiving and the end of the month followed by another round of cold air early December.

[don]

Interesting HGX mentioned the mid week storm in their discussion this morning...

Another FROPA follows after the low scoots out to the east leading
to another influx of cooler and drier air as surface high pressure
settles in through midweek. With persistent CAA, the period of below
normal temperatures will continue as well with high temperatures in
the 50s and low temperatures in the 30s/40s. Midweek is when things
get interesting again...the 00Z models are actually in better
agreement today! On Wednesday night, another coastal low should
develop off of the South TX coastline and drift east-northeastward.
The low itself is expected to remain well offshore, but the moisture
from it combined with plentiful PVA from an incoming upper level
trough should lead to scattered rain showers across Southeast TX on
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. That upper level trough
also ushers in much cooler 850mb temperatures with some models
suggesting less than 0°C at 850mb north of I-10 by Thursday
morning. During this time period, we`ll also have scattered rain
showers and surface temperatures in the mid to upper 30s north of
I-10, so it`ll be worth keeping an eye on model trends...it`s too
early to put any significant weight into certain deterministic model
outputs that indicate a certain type of precipitation falling.

[Stratton20]

Didnt think HGX would mention that

[Cpv17]

Didnt think HGX would mention that

Late next weeks front will make this front look like a baby. I’m almost at a loss for words about the EPO. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such perfect blocking in the GOA/Alaska/NW Canada areas. I mean it’s literally perfect to send a major cold blast down to the central/southern plains. If this happened in December-February combined with a -AO, we’d be talking about challenging or eclipsing 1895, 1899, 1983.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I agree! I definitely think this first front was just like an appetizer, that 2nd front late next week is going to be the main course haha, seeing the EPO go that far negative is mind boggling for november, highs in the 50’s with this initial front, that 2nd front could potentially knock highs into the upper 30’s and low 40’s

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 I agree! I definitely think this first front was just like an appetizer, that 2nd front late next week is going to be the main course haha, seeing the EPO go that far negative is mind boggling for november, highs in the 50’s with this initial front, that 2nd front could potentially knock highs into the upper 30’s and low 40’s

Yep! That’s what I’m thinking too.

[tireman4]

Interesting days ahead folks. Stay tuned

[DoctorMu]

Blah..basically north of hwy 1*5..

Lol it’s okay. That’s a long ways off yet. Probably nothing will happen anywhere in southeast Texas but can’t rule it out completely. More than likely just going to be a cold rain for most of the state.

Yeah, we don't much get rain anymore...but frozen precip nearly every year. lol

CMC brings wintry mischief to our doorstep. It's a week's time frame, so for entertainment purposes only. Interestingly, GFS is on board as well, but only in SW Louisiana.