November 2022

[snowman65]

Looks like a legit cold front around the 16-19th??

[Stratton20]

snowman65 too far out for any confidence in that just yet, but models and ensemble guidance are showing a much colder pattern change coming for the central and eastern us after the 12th of november, EPO tanks and the PNA reverts back to neutral, the CMC even has an arctic intrusion at the end of its run with some wintry precipitation in NW Texas, but its the CMC lol

[Cpv17]

Looks like we could have some supercells forming ahead of the main line tomorrow night, tornado threat could be really significant for some, possibly an outbreak

I’ve noticed for the most part the past few years most severe weather outbreaks haven’t really lived up to expectations.

[Cromagnum]

Oh lovely now im included in the enhanced risk, i love weather but severe weather is a huge no for me, after experiencing a night time tornado severe years ago when i was up in north texas visiting my grandparents, i definitely want no part in those stronger storms

I still to this day have never even seen a tornado. I’ve barely even seen hail maybe 3-4 times and only twice have I seen winds over 60mph. Severe weather where I live is extremely rare.

Now you've gone and done it.

[tireman4]

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity in association to the
cold frontal passage will be tapering down on Saturday morning as
the front continues to make its way over the coastal Gulf waters.
Cloud coverage inland will gradually scatter out during the day
as drier air moves into most of Southeast TX and temperatures will
be on mild side with highs low to mid 70s for most locations. A
warming trend however, will quickly set up as early as Sunday as
high pressure builds aloft and south southeasterly winds return
bringing warm moist air from the Gulf into the region. Highs on
Monday will bounce back into the upper 70s to low 80s range and
should remain in the low to mid 80s range for the rest of the
forecast period. The next best chance for rain could be on Monday,
when a very weak shortwave quickly passes through Central TX, but
may not be enough to really bring much rainfall to our area
especially when you still have some subsidence still present in
the local area. We would however, have PWs of around 1.2 to 1.4
and it may be enough to trigger some light passing showers. Thus,
kept slight rain chances (15-25%) in the forecast throughout the
day, with this highest percentages placed over the northwestern
and western counties.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Lingering MVFR ceilings will continue to improve over the next few
hours and VFR will prevail through the remainder of the afternoon
and early evening. After sunset, rich moisture and strengthening
onshore flow will lower ceilings to IFR north of HOU. HOU could
flirt around 010-015 ceilings overnight. With this latest forecast
package, I lowered ceilings north of HOU to 009 cigs, but if the
onshore flow remains stronger than forecast overnight, it could
keep cigs just barely above 010 and closer to 015. Otherwise,
ceilings won`t improve much tomorrow after sunrise. Winds will
continue to increase and ceilings will lift to MVFR. Isolated
showers possible for most sites beginning around 10-12Z. Towards
the end of the TAF forecast, we could see some VCTS for CLL
starting at 18Z before the stronger line of showers approaches CLL
by 00-02Z.

Walts

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Southeasterly winds will gradually increase starting tonight to
15-20 knots as the local pressure gradient tightens ahead of the
next FROPA progged move across the region Friday afternoon. Chance
of showers and thunderstorms will be on the rise late Friday
afternoon and evening as the front approaches the coast and is
expected to move into the local waters around midnight. Activity
will decrease during the overnight hours as it digs deeper into
the offshore waters, but strong northerly winds will remain
through at least Saturday morning. Caution flags and/or Advisories
will likely be needed. Light to occasionally moderate east to
southeast winds will return on Sunday and prevail through at least
mid week, along with seas of 4 feet or less.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 84 55 74 / 30 80 80 0
Houston (IAH) 73 84 61 75 / 10 50 90 10
Galveston (GLS) 74 80 66 74 / 10 30 80 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late Friday night
for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM...24
MARINE...24
AVIATION...16

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 maybe living closer to the gulf waters has something to do with that? It always seems like the best dynamics for severe weather are in north texas when these storm systems pass through despite even when SE Texas is highlighted for at least some degree of a risk for severe storms

[Iceresistance]

I'm going to get clobbered with the Squall line . . .

[don]

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

After highs reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon, temperatures
will be slow to cool off as cloud cover begins to fill back in.
Mostly cloudy skies and an increasing low level jet will keep
overnight lows in the low 70s while driving dewpoints up to the 70s
as well. These rich dewpoints and increasing PWs will begin to prime
the atmosphere for strong to severe weather on Friday.

Early Friday morning, a negatively tilted trough will be centered
over New Mexico as it tracks east, pushing a corresponding cold
front through Texas. Ahead of the cold front, a dry line is expected
to push through Central Texas and be the focus for convective
initiation in the early afternoon north of our forecast area.
Meanwhile, across Southeast Texas, the low level jet will continue
to increase and strengthen to 40kts, increasing low level moisture
and instability across our area. This will lead to streamer showers
throughout the day at a 15-20% chance for rain with higher amounts
west of I-45. Despite 50-70% cloud coverage, instability will
continue to increase across Southeast Texas and reach 1500 J/kg with
little to no capping expected. Shortly after lunch time, hi-res
models are hinting at some discrete cells forming across our
northern counties ahead of the FROPA where the low level helicity is
maximized (150-200 m2/s2) and lifting is the greatest , leading to
hazards of all types such as damaging winds, hail, and isolated
tornadoes. Therefore, SPC has placed areas north of Harris County in
an Enhanced Risk for severe weather and a slight risk elsewhere. By
7pm, the front will have caught up with the dry line as they
approach the Brazos Valley where it will begin to transition to a
QLCS-type system. By then, the threat for damaging wind increases
while a few isolated QLCS tornadoes and hail are still possible.
This front will march southeast towards the coast, reaching northern
Harris County between 9-11pm and finally the coast by 11-2am. As the
front pushes through overnight, the loss of daytime heating won`t
prevent the front from losing too much integrity as it appears that
the wind shear should be strong enough to maintain the cold pool
from racing out ahead.

[DoctorMu]

Keep in mind there will be no cap when the squall line heads into the area tomorrow evening. Rain prob. holding at 80%. Timing, not surprisingly, has been ratcheted forward...which increases the risk of severe weather.


FROPA timing:
7 pm - Near College Station

9-11 pm - Harris County

11 pm - 2 am - TX Coast

Most of the nasty cells should be in the northern counties. Instability about 1500 J/kg. There is potential for hail or a tornado in one of the cells along the dryline/front.

[DoctorMu]

Sorry, don - I was finishing the post above while you were posting.

[Stratton20]

Lol The 00z run of the CMC is beautiful , too bad its the CMC though hahah

[Cpv17]

Todays event looks pretty meh according to the models. Be lucky to get a quarter to half inch.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041053
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
553 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

GOES Total PW imagery shows the region is still fairly dry with PW`s
~1.2". That`ll change thru the day as 35-40kt llvl jet transport
1.8-2.0 PW air back into the region from the western Gulf. With the
approach of the upper level trof from the west, we should begin
seeing some sct precip development as the afternoon
progresses...eventually consolidating into a line of shra/tstms
that`ll push thru the region tonight.

Severe wx threat:
- Hasn`t changed much from what has been advertised. Pattern &
dynamics are about the same.
- Enhanced risk of severe storms generally north of I-10 and a
slight risk further south across the remainder of the region.
- All severe wx hazards are in play: strong damaging winds, isolated
tornadoes & hail.
- Though brief heavy downpours are possible, the cells/system should
be moving at a good pace limiting much in the way of a flash flood
risk.

Severe w/ potential timing:
- Roughly 3-11pm in the enhanced risk region, 8pm-2am slight risk
area to the coast, midnight-5am Gulf waters.

Notes on the latest available models/trends:
- Capping should generally erode across northern half of the region
during the late morning & early afternoon hours. This should allow
for waa type shra to evolve into some afternoon sct tstms (mainly in
the enhanced risk area).
- Potential exists for some supercells to develop along w/
corresponding tornado potential. Though generally possible anywhere
in the enhanced area, am particularly concerned about our northeast
CWA (Madison, Walker, Trinity & Houston counties) in the 4-9pm
timeframe. HREF members have shown some run-to-run consistency in
that general area with updraft helicity values. This appears to be
on the southern periphery of an area of discreet cells forming
in advance of a dryline across n/ne TX.
- Toward early evening, attention will probably turn back to the
northwest where precip may consolidate into a line of storms along
the Pacific front itself and move across the region overnight.
- Primary threat with the line will probably be 25-45mph gusts along
the leading edge. Segments/cells within the line will have the
potential to produce localized severe winds (in addition to hail and
an isolated chance of an embedded QLCS tornado).
- There is some uncertainty in regards to the overall intensity of
storms with the line itself given the somewhat varying model
solutions the last 18-24 hours. Depending on your model of choice, a
limiting factor could be some declining instability and some
developing CIN with time.

Saturday & Saturday night: drier air and benign conditions Saturday.
The boundary begins moving back north Saturday night as a warm front
bringing a gradual return to cloud cover & humidity. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

The front that is bringing the risk of thunderstorms later today
will actually visit us again on Sunday and Monday. After stalling
offshore on Saturday, the boundary will lift northward as a warm
front on Sunday. It won`t bring another risk of severe weather.
But it will mark the return to the warm and humid weather regime
we have experienced recently. A few isolated to widely scattered
showers are possible on Sunday and Monday as the boundary pushes
through the region. The potential presence of a weak shortwave
over central Texas may also enhance the chance of showers/storms
on Monday. However, there will be suppressive forces at work that
will mitigate the development of showers and storms.

These suppressive forces can be found in the mid/upper levels. A
building ridge is expected to be the dominant force in our
weather through at least Wednesday or Thursday. 500MB heights
could approach the low 590s dam on Monday-Wednesday. That`s more
reminiscent of a summer pattern than fall. Therefore, we will be
saying goodbye to Saturday`s 70s (at least for now) and hello to
the 80s. Our current NBM leaning temperature grids show widespread
afternoon highs in the low/mid 80s Monday- Wednesday. Given the
~590 dam heights, I could not rule out some locations getting even
warmer.

There are signs that the warm pattern may face its demise by the
end of the week. For now, we are keeping the forecast quite warm
through the end of the forecast period. However, you may notice
that our current outlook for Thursday does show slightly cooler
temperatures than Monday- Wednesday.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

MVFR cigs along & north of I-10 will gradually lift toward VFR
toward mid- late morning. Expect some gusty 15-25kt winds to
develop areawide thru the morning hours as well in advance of the
incoming storm system. Spotty weak showers should increase in
coverage this afternoon with some embedded thunderstorms generally
north of the metro area. Could be some isolated strong to severe
cells in that region after around 20z. Line of shra/tstms develop
along a frontal boundary to our nw late in the afternoon & move
across all of southeast Texas in the 2-8z timeframe (nw to se)
overnight. Strong winds along the leading edge of the line should
br the primary wx hazard. Precip comes to an end a few hours after
the wind shift & skies lift/clear late tonight into Sat morning.
47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Southeasterly winds this morning are expected to become more
south-southeast to south later today. Winds are forecast to
generally be in the 15 to 20 knot range. We cannot rule out Small
Craft Advisory level winds offshore ahead of the front this
afternoon. Our current forecast keeps winds sustained winds just
below small craft criteria. Small craft level winds are also
possible in the front`s immediate wake. A line of showers and
thunderstorms associated with the front will push into the waters
tonight through very early Saturday morning. A few storms could
become strong to severe with strong wind gusts as the main threat.
The boundary will stall then return northward as a warm front
Sunday into Monday resulting in onshore winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 52 73 55 / 70 80 0 0
Houston (IAH) 85 60 76 58 / 40 90 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 65 74 68 / 20 90 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

[Stratton20]

We need to watch any pop up storms that fire up ahead of the main squall line later tonight, could have some renegade supercells forming and those could pose a significant tornado risk, im most concerned about the DFW area, dynamics are in place for for a couple of stronger tornadoes (ef2+) in some of the supercells that form

[jasons2k]

Jeff 7:30am

Severe thunderstorms possible over SE TX late this afternoon and tonight

A strong storm system will move across Texas today and tonight with widespread thunderstorm development along and east of I-35. Gulf moisture will rapidly increase today with morning PWS of 1.2 increasing to near 2.0 inches this afternoon. Mid level capping inversion in place this morning will begin to erode with the arrival of deeper moisture and surface heating today. As deeper moisture flows northward, expected scattered showers to develop by midday over SE TX and grow into thunderstorms this afternoon. Increasing shear, moisture, and instability point to some of the storms this afternoon potentially become severe north of I-10.

This afternoon:
High resolution guidance is suggesting that thunderstorms will form late this afternoon in a corridor of enhanced instability and shear from NE TX SSW into the northern portions of SE TX. These storms will be located well ahead of the cold front across the warm sector air mass. Supercell structures will be possible with this development and think this will pose the greatest tornado risk of the event. This development will generally be located NNE of the Houston metro area across northern Montgomery, San Jacinto, Polk, Houston, and Madison Counties and then northward. This area is covered by the SPC enhanced (3 out of 5) risk area and located on the southern end of what will likely be a much significant tornado threat over east-central and northeast TX. This threat is conditional on the capping eroding enough to allow surface based parcels of air to rise through air column and take advantage of the favorable shear values.

This evening/overnight:
Cold front will approach from the west early this evening with thunderstorms developing near the I-35 corridor. These storms will quickly grow upscale into a line of storms and move west to east across SE TX tonight. Interestingly, the high resolution models tend to weaken this line, especially the southern portion of the line as it moves into the region this evening likely due to weakening instability after sunset and building capping in the mid level from the south. This line may produce some damaging wind gusts, especially north of I-10 overnight (1000pm to 200am) and an isolated tornado threat. While all of SE TX is outlooked in a slight risk of severe weather (2 out of 5), think the greatest threat will be north of I-10 for the overnight period.

Cold front will quickly push off the coast Saturday morning with clearing skies and cooler temperatures. Front begins to move back northward as a warm front late Sunday into Monday allowing a very warm and humid air mass for November standards. Building 500mb upper level ridge with heights pushing 590dm is impressive for early to mid November and high temperatures will easily reach the mid if not upper 80’s.

Severe Weather Outlook (Today and Tonight):
Image

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[don]

Moderate risk added to the Ark-La-Tex.

[Stratton20]

I cant wait until we are done with severe weather season, least favorite time of the year

[DoctorMu]

Moderate risk added to the Ark-La-Tex.

Yeah, that looks right with the convergence of SSW winds aloft and surface SE wind Gulf pump.

The biggest danger won't be in the organized squall line tonight but supercells forming from south to north ahead of the squall line this afternoon and evening. An axis from Caldwell to Texarkana could be in play.

[don]

Based on the latest mesoscale models I'm not too concerned with severe weather for the southern 2/3rds of SE Texas.The northern 1/3 though isn't out of the woods yet.Things can change though so I would be watching the radar closely this afternoon/evening to see if the squall line and any discreet storms our over performing or not.

[DoctorMu]

Based on the latest mesoscale models I'm not too concerned with severe weather for the southern 2/3rds of SE Texas.The northern 1/3 though isn't out of the woods yet.Things can change though so I would be watching the radar closely this afternoon/evening to see if the squall line and any discreet storms our over performing or not.

Exactly. Therefore, those that need an eye out are we folks in the NW 1/3. The tornado risk will be in discrete super cells. The squall should feature straight line winds...dumping short-lived heavy rain. There *may* not be as much rain south of Navasota when the line comes through late evening. I expect the line to really pick up as it enters LA. So, Beaumont could see another downpour.

It's 2:27 pm and the cells of concern appear to be forming around I-35 from Waco to DFW. We'll see what happens in CLL, Navasota, Huntsville during the remainder of the afternoon.