November 2022

[DoctorMu]

Long range looks delicious. No 70s to be seen

I'd take the 70s. It's been all the humid 80s that's a problem now nearly every Fall into November and December.

Just about every forecast nationwide has cooler air spilling in this upcoming weekend.

[Stratton20]

The EPO by the middle of november (14,15th) goes off the charts negative, absolutely massive tank, get ready to pull out those jackets folks!

[DoctorMu]

12z GFS is amazing, round after round of shots of arctic air spilling south with the sub tropical jet being really active, I can’t completely rule out some wintry precip for some parts of texas, this is an incredible pattern that we are headed towards, just wish it was december or january and we could be talking about winter storm potential lol

Could ruin the cooler, fall weather with rain overrun. TBH, with the low sun angle, we don't need that much more rain. Save deluges and especially all day rains for May - August.

[Cpv17]

Latest CPC forecast is crazy good.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 you cant get a better outlook than that from the CPC, absolutely amazing

[don]

Very Nice!

[jasons2k]

Got 0.41”yesterday. A nice surprise since Friday was a bust.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 080938
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
338 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022

Another day, another round of fog...fortunately the fog is not as
widespread as it was on Monday morning thanks to verrrry slightly
less humid air. We actually have dew points below the 70 degree mark
today! The fog has mainly been relegated to the usual trouble spots
early this morning (Angleton, Conroe, Eagle Lake, etc.) and may
continue to spread to areas west of I-45 throughout the early
morning hours. Any fog that develops will burn off around 9 AM CST.
Upper level ridging remains in place today, so you can expect
another day where afternoon temperatures outperform deterministic
model guidance. I blended in some of the 90th percentile of the NBM
to reflect highs reaching the mid to upper 80s once again. NAEFS
indicates 1000mb temperatures staying at or above the 90th
percentile through Wednesday night, so expect Wednesday to be
another warm one. Before we get to that though, let`s talk rain
chances!

PVA from a shortwave near the Bay of Campeche combined with PW
values around 1.5"-1.6" (90th percentile is ~1.61") will lead to
scattered showers near Matagorda Bay and our southwestern counties
later this morning through the afternoon. Some of the 00Z CAMs also
show isolated showers developing north of I-10 and east of I-45
later this afternoon as a result of daytime heating. PoPs in our
southwestern zones are 20%-40% while I have 15% PoPs for now for the
latter scenario. Tuesday night will be a tad bit cooler than Monday
night as dew points continue to slowly recede with low temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s. The SREF and NBM are also pointing towards
yet another round of fog as well.

On Wednesday we start to see signs of hope on the horizon as an
upper level trough drifts eastward into the Pacific Northwest. This
won`t have any factor in the forecast for Wednesday, buuuuut we will
be ever so slightly cooler by a degree or two as 850mb temperatures
take a mini tumble. Going into Wednesday night is when we start to
see a couple more changes. Firstly, 500mb heights begin to fall from
the 588-590 dam we`ve seen over the past few days down to 582-584
dam. Additionally, a pocket of drier air partially back doors in
from the east with PW values dipping below 1.0" in eastern
locations. This actually leads to our far eastern locations seeing
low temperatures in the upper 50s/low 60s on Wednesday night. The
drier air doesn`t quite make it west of I-45 though, so the rest of
us will be stuck with low temperatures in the mid 60s. Don`t worry
though, we`ll only have to wait till the end of the work week for
colder and drier air to arrive in bulk for all of us.

Batiste


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022

A change in the weather pattern, or let`s just also say a change
in the temperature pattern, can be expected this Friday as a cold
front moves across Southeast TX. Chance of rain can be expected
Friday morning into Friday night, though PoPs are relatively low
at around 20% or less inland. But the bigger story is that it will
lead to cooler temperatures this upcoming weekend into early next
week. And it will definitely feel more like "winter is coming"
(is that still a thing?) as the highs on Saturday into Monday will
only reach the upper 50s to low 60s. The lows each night will
range between the upper 30s to mid 40s along areas north of the
I-10 corridor, in the mid to upper 40s along areas south of the
I-10 corridor, and in the upper 40s to low 50s along the coasts.
Low level moisture will begin to move into the local area late
Sunday night into Monday morning, starting along the coastal Gulf
waters and the Matagorda Bay region. Expect moisture to continue
to expand northeastward during the day Monday as a coastal trough
begins to develop over the Western Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile,

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 246 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022

So far, decreased visibilities due to fog has only impacted LBX and
CXO and this is expected to remain the case through the mid morning.
Other sites like UTS and IAH have been gradually trending down on
visibilities, but are not expected to drop to LIFR. VFR conditions
return by 15Z after the fog burns off and easterly to east-
southeasterly winds get going. Scattered showers will mainly be
relegated to locations southwest of the TAF sites, but there is
isolated potential for afternoon showers near CXO and UTS. However,
there`s not enough confidence on this to throw in VCSH in their
TAFs. Winds become light and variable again after sunset. SREF and
NBM model guidance suggests that there could be yet another round of
fog for tonight, likely impacting the same trouble spots.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022

Some patchy fog could still develop today, though the chances of
it right now remains low. Light to occasionally moderate east to
southeast winds and seas of 4 feet or less are expected through
Thursday night. Rain chances will return Friday, as a cold front
moves across the waters on Friday. Moderate to strong north to
northeast winds and higher seas will develop in the wake of the
front, and may require Caution flags and Advisories Friday night
into Saturday. The local pressure gradient will remain fairly
tight over the waters during the weekend and into early next week,
and will continue to result in Caution and/or Advisory conditions
across the Gulf waters and bays through at least Monday.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 65 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 86 66 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 70 79 70 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....24
MARINE...24
AVIATION...26

[Cpv17]

Enjoy the next few days if you like warm weather. Might not see it again for a while. Will it come back late this month or December? Who knows really? But as long as that EPO stays negative and PNA stays at or close to neutral we’ll have a chance to stay near average or below it.

[DoctorMu]

Very Nice!

Nicole + the front will pull down cool air.

It's happening!

[DoctorMu]

Enjoy the next few days if you like warm weather. Might not see it again for a while. Will it come back late this month or December? Who knows really? But as long as that EPO stays negative and PNA stays at or close to neutral we’ll have a chance to stay near average or below it.

Enjoy? The dew point has been way too high. It feels like mid May.

[Cpv17]

Enjoy the next few days if you like warm weather. Might not see it again for a while. Will it come back late this month or December? Who knows really? But as long as that EPO stays negative and PNA stays at or close to neutral we’ll have a chance to stay near average or below it.

Enjoy? The dew point has been way too high. It feels like mid May.

A lot of people like that type of weather.

[Stratton20]

Good riddance to the heat and that awful humidity, bring on the cold!

[brazoriatx]

When is this cold coming?

[Stratton20]

12z Euro is awesome, and even towards the end of its run snother cold shot of arctic air begins to push south, this pattern with the EPO staying negative for potentially the next 2 weeks or so is going to be fantastic!

[tireman4]

When is this cold coming?

Cooler air, this weekend. Highs in the upper 50s/low 60s

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1058 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the day.
There will be a few isolated showers, maybe even an isolated TS,
this afternoon. However, the activity is too isolated and general
PoPs are too low to include in the TAF. The primary concern over
the next 24 hours will be the chance of low ceilings and fog
tonight. Short range ensembles suggest there will be areas of
FG/BR after midnight through about 9AM tomorrow. Conditions may be
similar tomorrow morning as they were this morning. LIFR/IFR
ceilings and visibility could occur once again during the morning
hours tomorrow. Any fog should break by 9AM.

[brazoriatx]

12z Euro is awesome, and even towards the end of its run snother cold shot of arctic air begins to push south, this pattern with the EPO staying negative for potentially the next 2 weeks or so is going to be fantastic!

My only worry is this will kill our chances during actual winter..with a 2 week stretch that may be all the winter we actually get

[Stratton20]

brazoriatx its not going to kill our winter especially since la nina is beginning to weaken

[Stratton20]

CPC also issued a slight risk of hazardous temperatures for a good chunk of texas fwiw🥶🥶