Wx Infinity Forums

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:38 am Apparently some of the KHOU meteorologists are getting blasted by the public for cutting in on the bills game last night due to a tornado warning, gotta love it when entitlement over a game is more important than safety lol

snowman65 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:37 am

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:41 am Not much of a cold front that blew through huh?

Im not seeing any "cold" fronts through at least Christmas.

Texashawk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:40 pm So is that big blob of rain in the Gulf supposed to come back north, or is the rain coming from elsewhere?

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:33 am

sambucol wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:26 am

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:16 am the only reason im even bringing this up despite the 00z Euro dropping the system, is because it kind of fits the time frame that some meteorologists like Larry Cosgrove are talking about, id rather the GFS be dead wrong, no one wants an ice storm lol


Reminder that Larry did not say Houston for possible frozen
precip. He said specifically not too far north from here. Big difference.

He may have said that to you but in his write up to the general public, he didn’t mention that. I don’t like long range forecasts. There’s no way someone could accurately predict in 10+ days out what’s going to happen and where it’s going to happen. And I would personally only put my confidence level at maybe a 3 or 4 about that cold snap actually verifying. It’s still too far out and doesn’t have consistent model support yet. But in the way Larry wrote, one would think there would definitely be chances for wintry weather in southeast Texas. That was very aggressive wording he was using.

He did say that to me in a private message. Not too far north from here ( Houston area) there may be frozen precipitation. I’m guessing that would still be in what is considered Southeast Texas. He is a professional meteorologist. I value his forecasts.

sambucol wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:40 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:33 am

sambucol wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:26 am

He did say that to me in a private message. Not too far north from here ( Houston area) there may be frozen precipitation. I’m guessing that would still be in what is considered Southeast Texas. He is a professional meteorologist. I value his forecasts.

There’s no way any meteorologist can accurately forecast a wintry weather event just north of Houston that far out. I’m not even sold on it getting cold yet much less wintry weather. Larry is a great met and I value what he says greatly but no one on this earth could accurately forecast that. Can’t take everything at face value.

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022

As of 3 PM CST, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad
surface low situated to the southwest of Matagorda Bay have
continued to increase in coverage along and south of the I-10
corridor, although a majority of the precipitation remains situated
offshore. Nonetheless, environmental conditions are favorable for an
increase in both coverage and intensity of rainfall over the next
several hours, with a heavy rain threat still on the cards in the
evening and overnight hours. Persistent onshore flow has allowed for
a surge in total PW values, with models in fairly good agreement in
indicating an increase to approximately 1.8-1.9 in along the coast
this evening. Based on PW climatology values from nearby surface
sites (LCH/CRP), this exceeds the 90th observed percentile over a
period dating as far back as 1946.

Given the deep moisture in place, a robust midlevel low situated
over W Central TX providing ample vorticity advection, and the
aforementioned surface low tracking to the northeast, we anticipate
a period of widespread rainfall over the next 12-18 hours, which may
become heavy at times. High resolution guidance indicates an
increase in both rainfall coverage and intensity after 6PM this
evening and until mid-morning tomorrow as the surface low pushes
along the coast. As many locations yesterday received several inches
of rainfall and thereby have well-saturated soils, there will be a
flooding threat associated with these rains. Rainfall rates at times
may reach 2-4 in/hr in the strongest storms that develop, especially
along and south of the I-10 corridor. We have therefore maintained
the previously issued Flood Watch in effect until noon tomorrow.

Current thinking regarding rainfall amounts remains on track, with
widespread totals of 2-4 inches expected and locally higher amounts
of 5-7 inches possible. The greatest risk of these higher amounts
will be closer to the coast where the deepest moisture is available,
although overall amounts will be highly driven at the mesoscale and
tied to individual storm development. The chance for any severe
(i.e. wind, tornadoes) threats remains marginal at best, with a lack
of instability being the inhibiting factor despite a more favorable
shear profile.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 4:58 pm Man i cant wait for this rain to be over with!

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 5:09 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 4:58 pm Man i cant wait for this rain to be over with!

I’m loving it!