December 2022

[Cpv17]

Looks like most of todays rains will be in the far northern parts of the viewing area and into Central/Northern LA where it’ll be a complete washout. Looks like just scattered showers and a couple small thunderstorms for most of us today.

[tireman4]

Saw lightning ( one time) on my way to work from Humble to the Gulfgate area. Areas near the coast are quite blustery.

[davidiowx]

Looks like most of todays rains will be in the far northern parts of the viewing area and into Central/Northern LA where it’ll be a complete washout. Looks like just scattered showers and a couple small thunderstorms for most of us today.

There should be some developing to our SW that will move through the area today. Think we will all get some rain, not a complete washout though.

[Cromagnum]

Nearly finished my wooden box around my outdoor water softener unit. Hopefully the rains lay off so I can complete the job today.

Just saw where the Thursday high is supposed to be mid 60s before dropping 50 degrees. My sinuses will love that. I'm not seeing any indication whatsoever of precipitation though, so this event is wasted.

[Stormlover2020]

I would rather 105 degrees, unless we get snow and that’s not happening lol

[Stratton20]

This event is not wasted, their was never really much in the way of support for snow to begin with outside of that lala land gfs run

[jasons2k]

Well the infrared turkey fryer will be working overtime this Christmas. Usually, I would be enjoying some pleasant weather outside shooting the ‘stuff’ with family over a few cold ones. This year we’ll all be inside by the fire. I did a recent poll and none of my family in the area is looking forward to the cold weather. Without any snow, it’s just a nuisance. A total waste. It will be cold enough to drain the pipes and shut the water. Some people unfortunately are going to have a plumbing mess with busted pipes right before Christmas. With the wind my garden will be toast. Again. It was just starting to recover nicely from snowmageddon too.

[Cpv17]

This event is not wasted, their was never really much in the way of support for snow to begin with outside of that lala land gfs run

A lot of people on here don’t like cold weather without snow. Me on the other hand, I like extremes so I’m fine with the colder temps. I understand where people are coming from though by saying this cold blast will be wasted because of no snow. I think we’ll have a better chance for something later this winter. Largely going to depend on what the EPO does. AO and NAO I’m not too concerned about.

[sambucol]

I’m liking the cold with or without snow.

[tireman4]

From Jeff...

Arctic Air Event:
Impressive arctic high pressure system over NW Canada will move SSE toward the Montana border and then into the US over the next 24-48 hours. Surface pressures in the 1055-1060mb range will be positioned just north of the Montana border by tomorrow and Tuesday and then dump southward into the high plains. Very cold and dense arctic air mass will be unleashed down the plains and arrive into N TX late Wednesday and off the TX coast by Thursday evening.

Will continue to side with the fastest of the guidance on the arrival of the arctic front with mid afternoon most likely across SE TX….this may need to be sped up some as these types of air masses tend to move south faster than expected given their extreme density. Temperatures will warm into the 60’s ahead of this front and then the bottom is going to fall out with temperatures falling 20-30 degrees in a few hours post front and howling north winds. Freeze line will quickly advance into the region Thursday early evening and all the way to the coast by midnight. Impressive cold air advection will be in place with north winds of 25-30mph and gust of 40-45mph across the region. This will result in wind chills falling into the 10’s and 1’s over the entire region by late evening Thursday. I cannot stress enough how abrupt this change will be Thursday evening. Wind chills by Friday AM may fall below 0 for areas north of I-10…wind chill advisories/warnings will almost certainly be required along with hard freeze warnings and likely a wind advisory and gale warning for the Gulf waters.

Strong cold air advection will drive temperatures well below freezing for the entire area by late evening Thursday and below hard freeze criteria by Friday morning (24 or lower for 2 hours or longer). Have trended lows a bit colder into the upper 10’s/near 20 to the coast, mid 10’s to I-10 and low 10’s north of HWY 105. Temperatures of this magnitude will be capable of causing damage to unprotected infrastructure and vegetation.

Cold arctic high sinks into Texas on Friday and temperatures will only rebound to near freezing for most areas…many areas will likely remain in the 20’s for much of the day and then another hard freeze for much of the area Friday night/Sat AM.

No precipitation is expected with this cold air event and there will NOT be any travel related concerns on roadways. However, it should be understood that a lack of snow/ice does not reduce the threat of the potentially damaging impacts of the cold air

Duration:
Many areas north of I-10 will likely experience 30-40 hours below freezing from late Thursday through midday Saturday. Areas south of I-10 have a slightly better chance or reaching 32-34 Friday afternoon, but this may be optimistic and many of those areas may also stay below freezing for an extended period of time as well.

Preparations:
Maximum cold weather actions will be needed for this upcoming cold air outbreak to help mitigate property damage. Additionally, with wind chills falling to dangerous levels, it will be important to limit outdoor exposure as much as possible. All preparations for this cold air outbreak should be completed by Thursday midday.

Proper winterization of any exposed pipes/plumbing will be needed to prevent damage. Sprinkler systems must be shut off and properly drained. If leaving out of town for the upcoming holidays, shut off the main water supply and drain pipes to prevent damage should they burst. Pipes/plumbing on elevated homes must be protected from the ground to the entry point of the structure.

Pets/livestock will require proper shelter to protect from the cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills. Prolonged exposure to the forecasted temperatures and wind may be fatal to unprotected livestock and pets. Monitor water sources as typical sources may freeze over.

Tropical plants/vegetation will require maximum freeze protection. Unprotected tropical vegetation will be killed and even protect vegetation will likely suffer heavy damage given the advective nature of the freeze and reduction is usefulness of the “greenhouse effect” of covering sensitive vegetation.

Persons should limit outdoor exposure during the cold as wind chills will fall to dangerous levels. Utilize heating sources properly to reduce the risk of fire and carbon monoxide poisoning.

[Cpv17]

I’m liking the cold with or without snow.

This is an interesting pattern setting up. It seems like around the 15th through the 20th or so of each month lately, the EPO is tanking and then going back positive for a while. If that trend continues then look out for another possible EPO tank a month from now.

[Cromagnum]

This event is not wasted, their was never really much in the way of support for snow to begin with outside of that lala land gfs run

I beg to differ. It cost me $200 in lumber to protect a softener system, my citrus and garden is guaranteed to die again, and attic plumbing is at risk all over again. Freezing cold like this with no precipitation is a giant pain in the *** down here.

[Stratton20]

We will get a shot at snow at some point this winter, I just feel like the expectations for snow with this event were way too high, but we can hope for a few surprise snow flakes I guess, im a snow person as well, it does suck, but ill take a cold/ dry christmas over a warm one any day

[jasons2k]

This event is not wasted, their was never really much in the way of support for snow to begin with outside of that lala land gfs run

I beg to differ. It cost me $200 in lumber to protect a softener system, my citrus and garden is guaranteed to die again, and attic plumbing is at risk all over again. Freezing cold like this with no precipitation is a giant pain in the *** down here.

Yeah when you’re a homeowner extreme cold events are just not the same. I used to marvel at extreme cold events too. Once it sucks money out of your wallet then it’s not so fun anymore.

[brazoriatx]

Yall act like we get these cold snaps every year lol enjoy it while it's here. How often do yall have to spend money to winterize yalls homes? Not often. Pretty soon yall wil be complaining its to hot and wondering about the first cold front

[Cpv17]

Up around Lufkin and Nacogdoches and points east of there into LA are getting absolutely hammered with rain. Definitely wouldn’t be surprised to see some flooding going on up there.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I love this event.

I’d take -5 over 105 , 50 times out of 10.

[tireman4]

I wonder, (out loud), would it be cold enough for Gulf Effect showers? I know you would have to have a return wind from the Gulf. Also, I wonder, could there be lake effect showers (Clear Lake, for example) that happened during the Christmas freeze of 1983?

[jasons2k]

Travis Herzog has a great thread about the upcoming cold and winterizing your home.

I know from personal experience that draining your pipes does work. It can be a nuisance but not nearly as bad as dealing with busted pipes. There were so many people I know in 2021 with their pipes busted. The faucet by the garage door was often the culprit.

https://twitter.com/travisabc13/status/ ... 59011?s=12

[jasons2k]

I wonder, (out loud), would it be cold enough for Gulf Effect showers? I know you would have to have a return wind from the Gulf. Also, I wonder, could there be lake effect showers (Clear Lake, for example) that happened during the Christmas freeze of 1983?

Tampa had a Bay Effect snow event in 1977. We lived in Riverview. Only time I saw snow until we moved to Savannah

https://www.tampapix.com/snow.htm