December 2022

[don]

The 12Z HRRR.Also looks like the cold air will stick round longer than thought a few days ago,as there will be reinforcement shots of arctic air into early next week as shortwaves swing by on the backside of the trough.

That's not showing up in my forecast from NOAA. I see a predicted low of 19 on Thursday night. Warm up to 33-34 on Friday then low 20s Friday night. Then above freezing and a warm up.

Yes its still going to warm up im not saying that it wont,but the reinforcement of cold air that will come with each shortwave passage will stop it from warming up as quickly as it would.So yes we will be warmer on Christmas than Thursday and Friday but relatively speaking we still are going to be cold with highs struggling to get out of the 30's until Tuesday.

[don]

To be fair to HGX though If the shortwaves take a more eastern track it will warm up quicker here.

[Stratton20]

lets hope they dont!

[don]

Looking at the latest 12Z EURO, CMC,and ICON.For now the GFS is by itself in regards to the track and potency of the shortwave on Monday.The other models show the shortwave much further northeast and more sheared.

[snowman65]

Just a gut feeling but I dont think this blast will be as severe as expected, at least not in my area. I dont think we'll see teens and Im thinking highs upper 30s-40 over the weekend. Nothing we havent seen before.

[DoctorMu]

The 12Z HRRR.Also looks like the cold air will stick round longer than thought a few days ago,as there will be reinforcement shots of arctic air into early next week as shortwaves swing by on the backside of the trough.

Yeah, 13°F has been my prediction for a week and am sticking to it.

s/w FTW?!

Once cold air sticks in place our chance rise to the "Could be?" range.

[DoctorMu]

12Z GFS gets so close to showing a classic cold core low snowstorm setup. With the potent shortwave on Monday now further west and closes itself off on top of us.Air is still too dry but good setup for evaporative cooling, interesting.

Wouldn't the dry air prevent it from doing so tho?

Yep(noticed i mentioned the air is still too dry),but you can overcome some of the dry air if you have a potent enough shortwave to produce enough lift squeezing out the little moisture available.But the shortwave has to be pretty potent because of how dry the air will be.Something around the strength of what the GFS shows would be good if the storm dug more to our west and/or became negatively tilted to our west before getting here.

Yes, you can precipitate your way out of the Verga to Victory.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Just a gut feeling but I dont think this blast will be as severe as expected, at least not in my area. I dont think we'll see teens and Im thinking highs upper 30s-40 over the weekend. Nothing we havent seen before.

Teens are a given for me, and probably low teens.

[DoctorMu]

GEM has a 11°F for us Thursday night and 9°F Christmas Eve. Doesn't warm up until Thursday. Upper 50s for New Year's.

NOAA has 15°F Thursday night, so 13°F sounds about right.

[DoctorMu]

Just a gut feeling but I dont think this blast will be as severe as expected, at least not in my area. I dont think we'll see teens and Im thinking highs upper 30s-40 over the weekend. Nothing we havent seen before.

Teens are a given for me, and probably low teens.

GEM is going with about 10°F for you.

I just got a TAMU NWS briefing. They are going with 14-16°F for Montgomery and us. Could be a few degrees colder as the cold is not surprisingly overperforming so far.

KBTX is progging 15°F locally, so we're converging on expectations...and moving on to NowCasting.

[Stratton20]

Im thinking we stay in the 30’s for highs for 3-4 days and the 20’s for friday, bring it on!

[mcheer23]

High temps on christmas will be in the low to mid 40's

[mcheer23]

Wind Chill Warnings and Hard Freeze Warnings are being issued.

[mcheer23]

18z HRRR brings Houston down to 14 degrees Friday morning.

[don]

18Z HRRR

[jasons2k]

HRRR still showing 13 here. No reason to change my thinking. TWC app just won’t let go of 17 (been consistent at 17 going on 3 or 4 days now — it’s been very consistent) but in the end, it will cave I think.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I think I’m going for a 5 mile run in below zero wind chills tomorrow. Always love a challenge!

[Stratton20]

ICON 18z keeps us potentially below freezing all day on saturday as well, also has highs in the upper 30’s on christmas day

[Cpv17]

ICON 18z keeps us potentially below freezing all day on saturday as well, also has highs in the upper 30’s on christmas day

Sounds great to me!

[christinac2016]

Oh my run club would love you…I think. Lol. A friend of mine crossed running in snow off her bucket list. She’s in CO.

I think I’m going for a 5 mile run in below zero wind chills tomorrow. Always love a challenge!