December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
brazoriatx
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djmike wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:12 pm Not ALL southeast texas. Lol. Beaumont not yet… but our NWS comes from Lake Charles. Im sure it will be any minute for the remaining of setx.
I dont count Beaumont as apart of south east texas..lol jk!!!
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djmike
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I don't either lol. All cajun here man!! Lol

We have one now…
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
Cpv17
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Larry Cosgroves post today was quite interesting but I don’t believe it lol
Stratton20
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Cpv17 mentioned the shortwave that could bring the western gulf snow and ice next week, Larry is great, but yeah im definitely not buying it either, their is no model support for that
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 4:44 pm Cpv17 mentioned the shortwave that could bring the western gulf snow and ice next week, Larry is great, but yeah im definitely not buying it either, their is no model support for that
Yeah I’m already looking ahead to when our next cold snap could be. Since there doesn’t appear to be any chance at wintry weather with this I’ve kinda lost interest.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 though i do wonder if hes seeing something that we arent or the global models arent lol, id find it hard to believe hed mention a chance of snow or ice for the western gulf coast if he didnt see something
brazoriatx
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Sometimes Larry is full of it like bastardi
Cpv17
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brazoriatx wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 4:59 pm Sometimes Larry is full of it like bastardi
I used to not get this vibe from Larry but yeah I’m kinda agreeing with you. He’s probably referring to what the CMC shows though.
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DoctorMu
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GBinGrimes wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:08 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 10:50 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:22 pm

They are more prepared to deal with cold weather. I have skiied in mountainous areas, in the Western US.
Yes and no. Houses in the NC mountains are built on foundations, so all the pipes underneath the house in the crawlspace have to be insulated. Foundations have built in warming - mother Earth. water lines and pipes in attics have to be insulated or dripped. When the temp was below 0°F, we definitely dripped water.

If the argument is that many houses in Texas are not sufficiently or are sloppily insulated, then I agree! That applies to summer energy costs big time as wel... I'm looking to see if we can blow or place more insulation in our western walls.

I have a plan to keep the garage and attic above freezing. We did well in Feb. 2021. Fingers crossed!

In the 2021 event we opened the attic stairwell, allowing the warmer house air to vent up into the attic space. The house was a bit cooler than we would've liked yet the attic temps stayed in the upper 40's to low 50's. I'll take that trade to save pipes and $$$.
Smart idea. Our strategy is somewhat similar. I put a space heater under the stairs in the garage and kill two birds with one stone. The garage and attic remain above freezing.
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Ptarmigan
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AtascocitaWX wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:20 am
snowman65 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:12 amcrickets....
yea we all know its going to be cold with no Wintry stuff , not quite exciting. :|
Just cold with no wintry precipitation. Some may want snow around Christmas.
Cpv17
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If I’m not mistaken I do believe climatology favors more snow in January and February around here compared to December. Though I have noticed 3 out of the last 4 snow events I’ve had at my house have been in December. 2004, 2009, & 2017.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 5:02 pm
brazoriatx wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 4:59 pm Sometimes Larry is full of it like bastardi
I used to not get this vibe from Larry but yeah I’m kinda agreeing with you. He’s probably referring to what the CMC shows though.
The X-mas and Tuesday setups still need to be watched. There's moisture/showers in the Gulf, still below freezing air around, and Vortices disturbances on Sun, Tuesday. It's the slightest glimmer of hope, but it ain't over 'til it's over.
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gfs_z500_vort_us_26.png
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 7:25 pm If I’m not mistaken I do believe climatology favors more snow in January and February around here compared to December. Though I have noticed 3 out of the last 4 snow events I’ve had at my house have been in December. 2004, 2009, & 2017.
December and February in CLL have been the most frequent for wintry mischief, but we have had snow in November and March as well! January thaws are a common event over the last 30 years.
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 7:25 pm If I’m not mistaken I do believe climatology favors more snow in January and February around here compared to December. Though I have noticed 3 out of the last 4 snow events I’ve had at my house have been in December. 2004, 2009, & 2017.
The Houston area and points east also received 1-4 inches of snow December 10th 2008 from a cold core low.There was already a low chance of snow in the forecast that day.But the system ended up over performing.I still have some pictures of the event and the 2009 event i'll post if i can find them LOL.
walsean1
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I know it might seem like Larry is wrong but I think these Global models are not handling the cold that is coming in well at all. Also we may be colder longer than what the models are predicting. Maybe he sees something.

Here is a link to Larry’s post.

https://t.co/ID3mETWiOw
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MontgomeryCoWx
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walsean1 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:40 pm I know it might seem like Larry is wrong but I think these Global models are not handling the cold that is coming in well at all. Also we may be colder longer than what the models are predicting. Maybe he sees something.

Here is a link to Larry’s post.

https://t.co/ID3mETWiOw
It’s the GFS vs everyone else on staying chilly until Friday of next week. GFS moderates Wednesday and is mild Thursday and Friday before cooling down again.
Team #NeverSummer
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:46 pm
walsean1 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:40 pm I know it might seem like Larry is wrong but I think these Global models are not handling the cold that is coming in well at all. Also we may be colder longer than what the models are predicting. Maybe he sees something.

Here is a link to Larry’s post.

https://t.co/ID3mETWiOw
It’s the GFS vs everyone else on staying chilly until Friday of next week. GFS moderates Wednesday and is mild Thursday and Friday before cooling down again.
Yeah, and it was supposed to be in the 70s today and tomorrow before the crash. :lol: We barely made 54°F this afternoon and we're about 40°F now. GEM and 2/3 Ensembles see the cold lasting until next Wednesday to Thursday. Canadian has Christmas night as our coldest low of 7°F
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don
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The 12Z HRRR.Also looks like the cold air will stick round longer than thought a few days ago,as there will be reinforcement shots of arctic air into early next week as shortwaves swing by on the backside of the trough.
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Screenshot 2022-12-21 at 09-02-21 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-12-21 at 09-02-57 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
brazoriatx
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don wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:27 am The 12Z HRRR.Also looks like the cold air will stick round longer than thought a few days ago,as there will be reinforcement shots of arctic air into early next week as shortwaves swing by on the backside of the trough.
So your saying there's a chance.....
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jasons2k
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13°F looks about right over here. Was hoping for 17°F (how pathetic for a gardener to say) but I'm thinking the 13°F printed on the HRRR looks like a solid prediction, for now.

I've seen a lot of fresh, baby queen palms in yards (not mine). Here we go again.
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