Wx Infinity Forums

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 03, 2022 5:26 pm

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Sat Dec 03, 2022 5:05 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 8:59 pm

I have never heard of a cold blast coming from a positive EPO in my life. I don’t even see really how that’s scientifically possible. Guess this goes to show you I’m still very much a novice when it comes to the weather lol.

I’ve also never heard of AAM or the cryosphere

I know nothing about that. I hate when other people know so much more than me. Makes me feel dumb. Got some learning to do!

I’m not really focusing on the models run to run though. I just try to look at all the model runs throughout the entire day (CMC, Euro, GFS, GEFS, EPS) and kinda average them all out. I also look at the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC outlooks. I just haven’t seen anything on a consistent basis that gets me excited for anything. It’s hard for me to believe something and buy into it till I start seeing it cuz to me all that is is just talk. It seems like we’ve been talking about this for weeks already and it keeps getting pushed back. You’d figure by now it would start to show up on the CPC outlooks and see hints of it on the models. How much longer do we have to wait till it starts showing up in their outlooks and on the models? I’ve bought into this talk before and been burned so I have my guard up. That’s just how I defend myself from getting upset if it doesn’t happen.

The teleconnections are all lining up (-AO, -NAO, -EPO, trending towards a neutral PNA). So why aren’t we seeing anything on the models yet? Well the only thing I can see is because there’s not enough ridging over eastern Alaska and NW Canada.

Most cold blasts have occurred in negative EPO. What I am saying is that negative EPO is not the only factor. NAO, AO, and PNA are also a factor.

20th Century Reanalysis Daily Composites
https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/compo ... .day.v2.pl

Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO)
https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/m ... resent.txt

Some cold blasts have occurred where EPO was positive. December 1963, January 1964, and January 1985.

I didn’t really start paying much attention to the weather till maybe 2010 so that’s well before my time lol

The EPO imo is the single most important factor in determining our winter weather. The ridging was positioned perfectly for the cold blast we had in November.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:21 am GFS looks awful for cold, the euro has been looking encouraging at least for some quick shots of cold and the CMC is just down right frigid, ensembles still look meh, i remain pretty skeptical about this big pattern change, confidence for me has gone down to 30-40%

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:21 am GFS looks awful for cold, the euro has been looking encouraging at least for some quick shots of cold and the CMC is just down right frigid, ensembles still look meh, i remain pretty skeptical about this big pattern change, confidence for me has gone down to 30-40%

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:04 pm I do love what the 12z GFS is trying to do from 300 hours on. It links up with Greenland and the storm northeast of Hawaii is pumping a fierce ridge into Alaska.

Maybe the GFS is finally caving.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:18 pm Didnt the GFS just get a new upgrade as well? Regardless it does maybe appear the GFS may slowly be caving in, euro looks good as well, cold air building up in western canada

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:08 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:04 pm I do love what the 12z GFS is trying to do from 300 hours on. It links up with Greenland and the storm northeast of Hawaii is pumping a fierce ridge into Alaska.

Maybe the GFS is finally caving.

If that means cold for SETX, I’m all for it.

sambucol wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:39 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:08 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:04 pm I do love what the 12z GFS is trying to do from 300 hours on. It links up with Greenland and the storm northeast of Hawaii is pumping a fierce ridge into Alaska.

Maybe the GFS is finally caving.

If that means cold for SETX, I’m all for it.

Its definitely below normal past mid month. Highs in the 40s and lows near freezing for my area with another front coming down at the end of the run.

sambucol wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:27 pm Fantastic! What do the temps look like for SETX in general Christmas week?