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Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 3:09 pm
by sambucol
Sounds wonderful to me

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 3:12 pm
by snowman65
Been outside lately? BBRRR...LOL

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 3:15 pm
by Stratton20
12z EPS is encouraging , starting to spill the cold air further south now. in the medium range, compared to keeping it locked up in Canada or the Northern US

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 3:26 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
I'm telling you... models will catch up (Euro and Canadian are already there, but I think the Euro will adjust a little colder).

Look at the recipe out there. It's all there for a below average last 15 days of the month.

I'm sure GFS will be schizo until late week this week. It will go from warmest to coldest and back again.


I'd lock in the Canadian right now, if I could.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 5:03 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Euro ENS is setting us up for a very cold Christmas week at the end of the run.

For once the cold timing should work out for us around the holidays.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 5:38 pm
by Stratton20
gfs is definitely starting to cave

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:27 pm
by sambucol
Fantastic! What do the temps look like for SETX in general Christmas week?

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:30 pm
by txbear
Sad state of affairs that we’re hoping and begging for a cool down…to anything below 70 in December. Meanwhile the rest of the state is at least generally in the upper 50s to low 60s at this 6:00 hour. What a crock.

Shorts and sweat to do yard work…this is for the birds.

MoCoWx, appreciate your piecing the puzzle together.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:43 pm
by Cpv17
sambucol wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:27 pm Fantastic! What do the temps look like for SETX in general Christmas week?
That’s way too far out to know.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:57 pm
by sambucol
Cpv17, yes. I know. Just wondering what the models were showing temp wise that Montgomery was talking about.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 7:01 pm
by Cpv17
sambucol wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:57 pm Cpv17, yes. I know. Just wondering what the models were showing temp wise that Montgomery was talking about.
As of right now I would say with about 60% confidence that temps will be below average. How far below is anyone’s guess.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 7:24 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
sambucol wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:57 pm Cpv17, yes. I know. Just wondering what the models were showing temp wise that Montgomery was talking about.
From 240 hours onward (on the GFS) we are average to 15-20 below (during the day) and 10 below at night.

It’s impossible to project how cold Christmas week will end up.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:05 pm
by Cpv17
18z GFS looks much better now at the 500mb level beginning in about 9-10 days.

The 18z GEFS still doesn’t look that great but it did improve from 12z.

The 12z EPS looks pretty good but could still improve.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:53 pm
by DoctorMu
This would be nice in 10 days.

Image

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:12 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
I’ll allow it ;)

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:18 pm
by Stratton20
You love to see that bright purple! I need an excuse to break oit the hot chocolate again

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:24 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:18 pm You love to see that bright purple! I need an excuse to break oit the hot chocolate again
I prefer the pinkish white colors ;)

Magenta is a beautiful color! Lol

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 1:13 am
by Stratton20
00z Euro is amazing!

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:56 am
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 1:13 am 00z Euro is amazing!
0z EPS is looking pretty good too. Definitely better than the GEFS.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:14 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
12z Euro goes colder than 0z and unloads right down the middle of the country to us.

If the long range Euro were to verify, we would be (potentially) looking at THREE successive waves of colder and colder air. As of right now, the week before Christmas through New Years looks mighty delicious for cold weather lovers.

Hold on to your rears, because I'm sure this is going flip flop and spit out some clown maps here and there until it gets a good hold of it.