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Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 7:01 pm
by Cpv17
sambucol wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:57 pm Cpv17, yes. I know. Just wondering what the models were showing temp wise that Montgomery was talking about.
As of right now I would say with about 60% confidence that temps will be below average. How far below is anyone’s guess.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 7:24 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
sambucol wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:57 pm Cpv17, yes. I know. Just wondering what the models were showing temp wise that Montgomery was talking about.
From 240 hours onward (on the GFS) we are average to 15-20 below (during the day) and 10 below at night.

It’s impossible to project how cold Christmas week will end up.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:05 pm
by Cpv17
18z GFS looks much better now at the 500mb level beginning in about 9-10 days.

The 18z GEFS still doesn’t look that great but it did improve from 12z.

The 12z EPS looks pretty good but could still improve.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:53 pm
by DoctorMu
This would be nice in 10 days.

Image

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:12 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
I’ll allow it ;)

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:18 pm
by Stratton20
You love to see that bright purple! I need an excuse to break oit the hot chocolate again

Re: December 2022

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:24 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:18 pm You love to see that bright purple! I need an excuse to break oit the hot chocolate again
I prefer the pinkish white colors ;)

Magenta is a beautiful color! Lol

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 1:13 am
by Stratton20
00z Euro is amazing!

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:56 am
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 1:13 am 00z Euro is amazing!
0z EPS is looking pretty good too. Definitely better than the GEFS.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:14 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
12z Euro goes colder than 0z and unloads right down the middle of the country to us.

If the long range Euro were to verify, we would be (potentially) looking at THREE successive waves of colder and colder air. As of right now, the week before Christmas through New Years looks mighty delicious for cold weather lovers.

Hold on to your rears, because I'm sure this is going flip flop and spit out some clown maps here and there until it gets a good hold of it.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:39 pm
by Iceresistance
S2K is about to get busy, someone named "ThunderSleetDreams" said it has been "Several Years since we've had double digit pages in the 1st Week of December".

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:47 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Iceresistance wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:39 pm S2K is about to get busy, someone named "ThunderSleetDreams" said it has been "Several Years since we've had double digit pages in the 1st Week of December".
I am TSD. Only reason I don't have the same posting handle that I have here is due to the fact I only post on the Winter forum.

I know I don't post a ton here outside of Winter, but I still frequent here a lot outside of the Winter season if a wet pattern or storm is headed our way.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:25 pm
by Iceresistance
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:47 pm
Iceresistance wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:39 pm S2K is about to get busy, someone named "ThunderSleetDreams" said it has been "Several Years since we've had double digit pages in the 1st Week of December".
I am TSD. Only reason I don't have the same posting handle that I have here is due to the fact I only post on the Winter forum.

I know I don't post a ton here outside of Winter, but I still frequent here a lot outside of the Winter season if a wet pattern or storm is headed our way.
Oh hi there! I did not expect you to be TSD!

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:38 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Ha.

Name comes from my first intense Winter experience in 1989. Got to see a Thunderstorm turn into Thunder Sleet turn into Thunder Snow in the span of a hour.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:44 pm
by Cromagnum
What a depressing weather pattern right now I should not be running my AC and sweating when I go outside.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:47 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Cromagnum wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:44 pm What a depressing weather pattern right now I should not be running my AC and sweating when I go outside.
It will be gone soon.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:57 pm
by Stratton20
I know the pattern change is coming, but the GFS is well on its way to winning the worst model of the year award, euro and CMC are in remarkable agreement but here we have the GFS which is still out to lunch, its crazy that its still not seeing this pattern flip

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:37 pm
by Cpv17
The CPC forecast is still quite blah. Looks like they’re weighing the GFS more than anything else.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:39 pm
by txsnowmaker
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:47 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:44 pm What a depressing weather pattern right now I should not be running my AC and sweating when I go outside.
It will be gone soon.
It can’t come soon enough. ABC13 had been showing seasonal temps for Dec. 12 and low and behold, it now delays that another yet another day until the 13th. I’m tired of the humidity and the cockroaches.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:44 pm
by Iceresistance
What kind of madness has the 18z GFS produced?