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Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 12:45 pm
by brazoriatx
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 12:34 pm
12z GFS has a really active sub tropical jet and a developing winter storm in texas at hour 240 or so, we shall see
Won't make it this far south though
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 12:53 pm
by Stratton20
brazoriatx way too early to tell, still more questions than answers, but this kind of upcoming pattern does spell the potential for a southern storm track, every little dip in the jet stream helps to bring the storm track further south over time
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 1:52 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Nat Gas spiking. Traders have bought into the pattern change.
Europe is so screwed. Lol, I feel sorry for the poor saps who didn’t vote for the insanity their puppet leaders are pushing.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:36 pm
by Stratton20
Below Normal Temps and Above Normal Precipitation,
hmmmm
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:38 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:36 pm
Below Normal Temps and Above Normal Precipitation,
hmmmm
That's an about face.
Seriously though, CPC did that in 2021. February was going to be above average, then when first signs of a freeze coming showed, they stepped it down to neutral, then light blue then 3 days later we were in the dark blues.
Will be fun to follow.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 4:38 pm
by Cromagnum
Couldn't resist.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 4:56 pm
by DoctorMu
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:16 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:07 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:04 pm
My guess is the Ural ridge initiates a SSW …
I’ve never heard of the Ural ridge. All I know is that it’s some mountain range in Russia.
Yep, my guess is that ridge pokes the SPV and weakens it sending cold air our way.
Here's a paper on the Ural Ridge - SSW relationship.
Usually there is a cold nasty trough in Siberia and all the cold air pooled east of the Urals becomes intense. If the Ural Ridge breaks down due to an SSW then the Frigid Siberian air jailbreaks into either Western Europe or into Alaska, Canada, and potentially the US.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 22-06353-7
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 4:58 pm
by DoctorMu
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 12:34 pm
12z GFS has a really active sub tropical jet and a developing winter storm in texas at hour 240 or so, we shall see
That's more like an El Nino winter than La Nina. The SST should be quieter. Hmmmmmm...
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 5:36 pm
by jasons2k
I’ve been away for awhile. I’m back and enjoying the last bit of warm weather for awhile it seems. Christmas period could get interesting.
MontgomeryCoWx - we will miss you bro!! Seriously! I know you will enjoy the coldness and congratulations on making dreams come true! Please do check-in like our friend SRain.
Will send you a PM
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:02 pm
by Iceresistance
Even the 18z GFS trolled me with absolutely no snow!
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:03 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 5:36 pm
I’ve been away for awhile. I’m back and enjoying the last bit of warm weather for awhile it seems. Christmas period could get interesting.
MontgomeryCoWx - we will miss you bro!! Seriously! I know you will enjoy the coldness and congratulations on making dreams come true! Please do check-in like our friend SRain.
Will send you a PM
Sent you one back, and I’ll still be around. Like I said in my PM, we will be in Texas during the school year until 2030. Summers WILL NOT be here
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:32 pm
by Stratton20
Well i can certainly say i wasn’t expecting to see that, at least not in North Texas! Wow
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:50 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:32 pm
Well i can certainly say i wasn’t expecting to see that, at least not in North Texas! Wow
Yessir! It’s coming. Never seen such a good look from the ensembles before. Don’t even think ensembles looked this promising in Feb 21.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:52 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Really would love heavy snow there leading up to the 22nd because the reinforcing shots won’t moderate thereafter.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 7:29 pm
by Cpv17
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:52 pm
Really would love heavy snow there leading up to the 22nd because the reinforcing shots won’t moderate thereafter.
I think there’s a decent chance of that happening.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 7:39 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:32 pm
Well i can certainly say i wasn’t expecting to see that, at least not in North Texas! Wow
And I'm in the middle of this one!
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 8:55 pm
by DoctorMu
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 1:52 pm
Nat Gas spiking. Traders have bought into the pattern change.
Europe is so screwed. Lol, I feel sorry for the poor saps who didn’t vote for the insanity their puppet leaders are pushing.
Europe stocked up on NG during the summer before Putin started squeezing them...now he's having to sell NG to China and India for pennies on the dollar/ruble.
But severe Siberian cold would put a real crimp in their step. I hope the floodgates open
this way instead - we'll take one for the team...assuming our TX NG power plants are actually online this time!
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 8:57 pm
by DoctorMu
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:52 pm
Really would love heavy snow there leading up to the 22nd because the reinforcing shots won’t moderate thereafter.
Yes. We'd have the Santa Albedo Special snow pack all the way up and down the eastern front of the Rockies.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 8:58 pm
by DoctorMu
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:32 pm
Well i can certainly say i wasn’t expecting to see that, at least not in North Texas! Wow
Wow - that's bold for the NWS this far out.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:00 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 8:55 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 1:52 pm
Nat Gas spiking. Traders have bought into the pattern change.
Europe is so screwed. Lol, I feel sorry for the poor saps who didn’t vote for the insanity their puppet leaders are pushing.
Europe stocked up on NG during the summer before Putin started squeezing them...now he's having to sell NG to China and India for pennies on the dollar/ruble.
But severe Siberian cold would put a real crimp in their step. I hope the floodgates open
this way instead - we'll take one for the team...assuming our TX NG power plants are actually online this time!
Based on what I know, it would take something more severe than 2021 to challenge our nat gas compressor stations.
