Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:02 pm
Would any of that snow possible reach our coastline?Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:32 pm Well i can certainly say i wasn’t expecting to see that, at least not in North Texas! Wow
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Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:03 pm
Say hey to the Duttons for us.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:03 pmjasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 5:36 pm I’ve been away for awhile. I’m back and enjoying the last bit of warm weather for awhile it seems. Christmas period could get interesting.
MontgomeryCoWx - we will miss you bro!! Seriously! I know you will enjoy the coldness and congratulations on making dreams come true! Please do check-in like our friend SRain.
Will send you a PM
Sent you one back, and I’ll still be around. Like I said in my PM, we will be in Texas during the school year until 2030. Summers WILL NOT be here
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:04 pm
Sambucol it is 10-12 days out so impossible to say right now, but this upcoming pattern screams wintry mischief somewhere in the state, definitely cannot rule out some of that coming into SE Texas, but confidence is pretty low with that right now
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:05 pm
Haha, we will be in Gallatin county too. The Gallatin Gateway is so awesome. Light Snowy drives are amazing there.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:03 pmSay hey to the Duttons for us.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:03 pmjasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 5:36 pm I’ve been away for awhile. I’m back and enjoying the last bit of warm weather for awhile it seems. Christmas period could get interesting.
MontgomeryCoWx - we will miss you bro!! Seriously! I know you will enjoy the coldness and congratulations on making dreams come true! Please do check-in like our friend SRain.
Will send you a PM
Sent you one back, and I’ll still be around. Like I said in my PM, we will be in Texas during the school year until 2030. Summers WILL NOT be here
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:11 pm
Something I need to note here for the youngsters who just discovered their weather fanaticism….Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:04 pm Sambucol it is 10-12 days out so impossible to say right now, but this upcoming pattern screams wintry mischief somewhere in the state, definitely cannot rule out some of that coming into SE Texas, but confidence is pretty low with that right now
Before the last decade, SETX may get a couple to few winter weather events a decade (meaning precip). This past decade has been highly unusual in terms of the frequency of events, even if light.
I’m probably going to miss some years but I know 2011, 2013 (several), 2014 (multiple), 2017, 2018, 2021 (two) had events and I think that has spoiled some youngsters. Yes, I know I’m 40 and not that old, but I’ve followed weather since the late 80s and used to invite East Texas Weather personalities to my classes for class presentations and projects. The 90s and 2000s were not like the last decade.
Thankful we have fun weather to talk about this time of year. I know I’m not active outside of Winter unless a Hurricane or major severe outbreak is coming, but that doesn’t mean I don’t read.
Thank you for all the contributions!
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:17 pm
On a side note, my favorite experience in a storm minus 1989 in Longview was walking like a giraffe from Northgate to our place 3 miles away during the CS ice storm in February of 2003.
We went to Northgate with a WWA issued but I didn’t think temps would get much below 30. When we walked out at 2 am it was 27 and moderate freezing rain and sleet had hammered CS.
I didn’t think we were going to make it. I had so many bruises and bumps from falling HARD going down hills.
I still laugh about it but I wasn’t about to get behind the wheel after drinking, much less on ice. The Carpool group taxi. Run by students had shut down that night.
We went to Northgate with a WWA issued but I didn’t think temps would get much below 30. When we walked out at 2 am it was 27 and moderate freezing rain and sleet had hammered CS.
I didn’t think we were going to make it. I had so many bruises and bumps from falling HARD going down hills.
I still laugh about it but I wasn’t about to get behind the wheel after drinking, much less on ice. The Carpool group taxi. Run by students had shut down that night.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:04 pm
I think next week we should have a somewhat better idea on the forecasts.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:10 pm
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:19 pm
fantasyville??
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:26 pm
Thank you for the response! Snow here would be fantastic, but my concern is how low will the temps, and how long could we possibly be below freezing. Just trying to figure out went to start preparing the house.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:28 pm
That run of the GFS is from 2 nights ago, but I definitely cant rule out an extreme scenario like that, the teleconnections support that kind of cold air getting dumped down here
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:00 pm
I don't think we're going back to the 90s or early 00s. You never know, but I think this is the new normal. With Arctic circle ice thinning the polar vortex is more likely to be detached and Siberia winters can be even more brutal, meaning a greater chance of jailbreaks. There were will be a lot of variance from year to year and within a season. We could be indeed due for a icy/wintry blast this winter...then more of the subtropical stuff.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:11 pmSomething I need to note here for the youngsters who just discovered their weather fanaticism….Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:04 pm Sambucol it is 10-12 days out so impossible to say right now, but this upcoming pattern screams wintry mischief somewhere in the state, definitely cannot rule out some of that coming into SE Texas, but confidence is pretty low with that right now
Before the last decade, SETX may get a couple to few winter weather events a decade (meaning precip). This past decade has been highly unusual in terms of the frequency of events, even if light.
I’m probably going to miss some years but I know 2011, 2013 (several), 2014 (multiple), 2017, 2018, 2021 (two) had events and I think that has spoiled some youngsters. Yes, I know I’m 40 and not that old, but I’ve followed weather since the late 80s and used to invite East Texas Weather personalities to my classes for class presentations and projects. The 90s and 2000s were not like the last decade.
Thankful we have fun weather to talk about this time of year. I know I’m not active outside of Winter unless a Hurricane or major severe outbreak is coming, but that doesn’t mean I don’t read.
Thank you for all the contributions!
I should mention that the 2004 Christmas Eve snow miracle (my avatar), is the one that kicked off the current paradigm.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:05 pm
I was checking out the Big Sky area, halfway between West Yellowstone and Bozeman. Yeah, it would suck mightily to live there in the summer among the lakes and mountains.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:05 pmHaha, we will be in Gallatin county too. The Gallatin Gateway is so awesome. Light Snowy drives are amazing there.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:03 pmSay hey to the Duttons for us.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:03 pm
Sent you one back, and I’ll still be around. Like I said in my PM, we will be in Texas during the school year until 2030. Summers WILL NOT be here
We'll have you and srain post more idyllic pics when we're melting like butter in 100°F heat.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:29 pm
Man the GFS is so frustrating
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:32 pm
You’re 10 days out. Take a deep breath. It delivers the first two shots of cold air and it steps down.
With that said, it’s going to do this. You know this, and the other models probably will too. Won’t know a ton until Wednesday.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:40 pm
Yeah the operationals are useless past 4-5 days imo. That’s why I just stick to the ensembles.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:32 pmYou’re 10 days out. Take a deep breath. It delivers the first two shots of cold air and it steps down.
With that said, it’s going to do this. You know this, and the other models probably will too. Won’t know a ton until Wednesday.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:50 pm
It’s 26 degrees in Dodge City, Kansas. The cold a comin’ is just beginning.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:32 pmYou’re 10 days out. Take a deep breath. It delivers the first two shots of cold air and it steps down.
With that said, it’s going to do this. You know this, and the other models probably will too. Won’t know a ton until Wednesday.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:18 am
davidiowx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:50 pmIt’s 26 degrees in Dodge City, Kansas. The cold a comin’ is just beginning.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:32 pmYou’re 10 days out. Take a deep breath. It delivers the first two shots of cold air and it steps down.
With that said, it’s going to do this. You know this, and the other models probably will too. Won’t know a ton until Wednesday.
1°F at Bismarck. This is just the first wave.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 6:56 am
We need some cold to kill these damn mosquitoes!
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:12 am
Next week will be a rooler coaster ride of fun. It will be colder than it is now.