Wx Infinity Forums

Posted: **Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:28 pm**

That run of the GFS is from 2 nights ago, but I definitely cant rule out an extreme scenario like that, the teleconnections support that kind of cold air getting dumped down here

Posted: **Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:00 pm**

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:11 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:04 pm Sambucol it is 10-12 days out so impossible to say right now, but this upcoming pattern screams wintry mischief somewhere in the state, definitely cannot rule out some of that coming into SE Texas, but confidence is pretty low with that right now
Something I need to note here for the youngsters who just discovered their weather fanaticism….

Before the last decade, SETX may get a couple to few winter weather events a decade (meaning precip). This past decade has been highly unusual in terms of the frequency of events, even if light.

I’m probably going to miss some years but I know 2011, 2013 (several), 2014 (multiple), 2017, 2018, 2021 (two) had events and I think that has spoiled some youngsters. Yes, I know I’m 40 and not that old, but I’ve followed weather since the late 80s and used to invite East Texas Weather personalities to my classes for class presentations and projects. The 90s and 2000s were not like the last decade.

Thankful we have fun weather to talk about this time of year. I know I’m not active outside of Winter unless a Hurricane or major severe outbreak is coming, but that doesn’t mean I don’t read.

Thank you for all the contributions!

I don't think we're going back to the 90s or early 00s. You never know, but I think this is the new normal. With Arctic circle ice thinning the polar vortex is more likely to be detached and Siberia winters can be even more brutal, meaning a greater chance of jailbreaks. There were will be a lot of variance from year to year and within a season. We could be indeed due for a icy/wintry blast this winter...then more of the subtropical stuff.

I should mention that the 2004 Christmas Eve snow miracle (my avatar), is the one that kicked off the current paradigm.

Posted: **Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:05 pm**

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:05 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:03 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:03 pm

Sent you one back, and I’ll still be around. Like I said in my PM, we will be in Texas during the school year until 2030. Summers WILL NOT be here
Say hey to the Duttons for us.
Haha, we will be in Gallatin county too. The Gallatin Gateway is so awesome. Light Snowy drives are amazing there.

I was checking out the Big Sky area, halfway between West Yellowstone and Bozeman. Yeah, it would suck mightily to live there in the summer among the lakes and mountains.

We'll have you and srain post more idyllic pics when we're melting like butter in 100°F heat.

Posted: **Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:29 pm**

Man the GFS is so frustrating

Posted: **Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:32 pm**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:29 pm Man the GFS is so frustrating

You’re 10 days out. Take a deep breath. It delivers the first two shots of cold air and it steps down.

With that said, it’s going to do this. You know this, and the other models probably will too. Won’t know a ton until Wednesday.

Posted: **Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:40 pm**

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:32 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:29 pm Man the GFS is so frustrating
You’re 10 days out. Take a deep breath. It delivers the first two shots of cold air and it steps down.

With that said, it’s going to do this. You know this, and the other models probably will too. Won’t know a ton until Wednesday.

Yeah the operationals are useless past 4-5 days imo. That’s why I just stick to the ensembles.

Posted: **Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:50 pm**

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:32 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:29 pm Man the GFS is so frustrating
You’re 10 days out. Take a deep breath. It delivers the first two shots of cold air and it steps down.

With that said, it’s going to do this. You know this, and the other models probably will too. Won’t know a ton until Wednesday.

It’s 26 degrees in Dodge City, Kansas. The cold a comin’ is just beginning.

Posted: **Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:18 am**

davidiowx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:50 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:32 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:29 pm Man the GFS is so frustrating
You’re 10 days out. Take a deep breath. It delivers the first two shots of cold air and it steps down.

With that said, it’s going to do this. You know this, and the other models probably will too. Won’t know a ton until Wednesday.
It’s 26 degrees in Dodge City, Kansas. The cold a comin’ is just beginning.

1°F at Bismarck. This is just the first wave.

Posted: **Fri Dec 09, 2022 6:56 am**

We need some cold to kill these damn mosquitoes!

Posted: **Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:12 am**

Next week will be a rooler coaster ride of fun. It will be colder than it is now.

Posted: **Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:24 am**

tireman4 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:12 am Next week will be a rooler coaster ride of fun. It will be colder than it is now.

This time next week, I expect to be in the low to mid 30s, not 70 (gross!).

Posted: **Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:33 am**

As of right now, the 7 days leading up to Christmas, our sensible weather shows highs in the 40s. I’ll absolutely take it although I’d like colder and it can trend that way.

Posted: **Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:28 am**

Lord wxman57 has spoken there for it shall be DONE!

I'm liking what I'm seeing in the latest model runs. GFS has given up on the extreme cold in favor of seasonable temps. Gone are the -30F temps in Montana, replaced by -5F temps. Perhaps a light freeze or two prior to Christmas for the D-FW area. None down here in Houston. Upper-air pattern is not "right" for major cold down here over the next couple of weeks. Best to keep the excitement about major cold under wraps. As with the outbreak in 2021 and last winter, I'll shout out "cold is coming" when I really see it. For now, I don't see it. Unfortunately, this week's beautiful Christmas weather with lows in the 70s and highs in the 80s won't last much longer.

Posted: **Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:33 am**

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:28 am Lord wxman57 has spoken there for it shall be DONE!

I'm liking what I'm seeing in the latest model runs. GFS has given up on the extreme cold in favor of seasonable temps. Gone are the -30F temps in Montana, replaced by -5F temps. Perhaps a light freeze or two prior to Christmas for the D-FW area. None down here in Houston. Upper-air pattern is not "right" for major cold down here over the next couple of weeks. Best to keep the excitement about major cold under wraps. As with the outbreak in 2021 and last winter, I'll shout out "cold is coming" when I really see it. For now, I don't see it. Unfortunately, this week's beautiful Christmas weather with lows in the 70s and highs in the 80s won't last much longer.

Key word is for now. He’s a great troll job.

He Entered the chat when the colder model runs were showing up and he was saying can’t trust them past 5 days. Now that we see highs in the 40s and 50s, of course they can be trusted even though we are still 7 days out from the first big push of colder air and 16 out from Christmas.

But I digress, I’d take 40s from the 16th through the end of the year if offered. Better than this soupy crap.

Posted: **Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:33 am**

Wxman is gonna be wrong lol

Posted: **Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:39 am**

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:33 am Wxman is gonna be wrong lol

He just likes to get under your skin lol but I agree. I don’t see how this upcoming pattern won’t deliver anything significant.

Posted: **Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:40 am**

Wxman is usually spot on during the fall/winter time around here. It's actually pretty easy to forecast because from a climo stand point, it just doesn't get that cold around here. He was definitely sounding the alarm before the big 2021 freeze way ahead of time. We will see.

Posted: **Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:49 am**

redneckweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:40 am Wxman is usually spot on during the fall/winter time around here. It's actually pretty easy to forecast because from a climo stand point, it just doesn't get that cold around here. He was definitely sounding the alarm before the big 2021 freeze way ahead of time. We will see.

He’s the only one saying what he’s saying. Throw out us weather fanatics, there’s some highly respected guys on 2k directly challenging his take.

Throw on top that Cohen, Spann, Cosgrove and other highly respected Mets are saying things that contradict Wxman and something will have to give.

He used the word “seasonal”. I’d like to get an idea what he means by that. If he means Christmas will be 10-20 below normal and that’s seasonal, I could buy it. The temps look anything but “normal” though.

Posted: **Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:18 am**

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:33 am Wxman is gonna be wrong lol

Lets be honest, I have quietly follow this form even back through the KHOU days. Wxman has rarely been wrong on these set ups and generally the voice of reason.

Hes not going to be wrong....

Posted: **Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:21 am**

NWHouston wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:18 am
vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:33 am Wxman is gonna be wrong lol
Lets be honest, I have quietly follow this form even back through the KHOU days. Wxman has rarely been wrong on these set ups and generally the voice of reason.

Hes not going to be wrong....

To clarify, I know nothing about the science of weather other than what I follow in here. I just know historically speaking Wxman is right about these things during fall and winter. So I am playing the odds

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