January 2023
Storms starting to fire up just sw of El Campo.
It mostly depends on where the triple point is and how far north it goes. There will be some discrete cells but the main event will come down to tracking a lone supercell at the top of the line. Looks slightly north now. Gonna be a close call here - might go right over my house. Latest maps look concerning to me.
Working down in Freeport. Home in Rosharon. Gonna likely be ugly in one of the two spots.
Latest 10-day on iPhone drops down to 28 next Thursday…it’s coming.
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brazoriatx
- Posts: 331
- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
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Radar is lighting up. It's nasty along the I-10 corridor.
Wow the winds aloft are already screaming. Look at doppler.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2357
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
I just asked my wife to head home and work from there. Her office is at NRG Park.
Team #NeverSummer
Radar indicated tornado near Halletsville.
Just glad to be out of the warm sector today. Wet > supercells.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4516
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
From Jeff this morning...
Active weather will quickly unfold over the next several hours with multiple hazards
Severe weather…including all modes (damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes) will be possible
Heavy rainfall and street flooding will be possible.
Timing: 900am-500pm
Highest tornado and severe threat will be along and south of I-10…an isolated strong tornado is possible.
Powerful onshore winds of 35-45mph areawide will result in minor coastal flooding this afternoon
Wind advisory in effect for the entire area
Gale warning for all waters
Actions:
Have multiple ways to receive warnings today (enable cell phone emergency alerts)
Have a plan to react should a warning be issued for your area
For severe weather/tornado warnings:
Seek shelter in a sturdy well built structure on the lowest floor away from windows (interior closet or bathroom)
In office buildings/schools: shelter in an interior hallway away from windows or interior stairway. Do NOT shelter in areas with high vaulted ceilings (gyms), warehouses, ect.
Storms will be moving extremely fast, warning lead times will be short…act immediately if a warning is issued for your area.
Overview:
Highly impressive upper level storm system now over west Texas will bring numerous weather threats to Texas today. Strong lift is inducing pressure falls this morning over SC TX where a potent surface low will form and move ENE/NE across SE TX this afternoon. High resolution guidance shows “incredible” surface pressure falls on the order of 20mb in 6 hrs over our region today which will result in a very significant low level mass influx of deep moisture into the region. Current dewpoints are 58 at Palacios and 68 at Brownsville versus 39 at Livingston. As surface pressures tank, low level jet will quickly develop and transport mid and possibly upper 60 degree dewpoints from S TX to near the I-10 corridor this morning. Warm front looks to move through the coastal counties and at least into southern Wharton, Fort Bend and Harris with all areas along and south of this boundary likely primed for a robust severe weather potential.
Severe:
High resolution models continue to be aggressive with surface based instability developing over the southern portions of the area today and when combined with the “off the charts” shear in place, all severe weather modes are a concern. We shall see if the instability will be as great as the Hires data suggest, if so a fairly significant outbreak of severe weather including damaging tornadoes will be possible. Main focus of the severe threat will be along and south of I-10 including the metro Houston area. Supercell structures may evolve over the building warm sector late morning with an increasing tornado threat as low level winds remain backed out of the E/ESE and quickly veer to SW in the mid levels producing significant low level shear. Squall line quickly approaches from the west and sweeps across the region this afternoon…damaging winds will be likely with this line as 700mb jet punches in from the west.
SPC has nudged the 3 out of 5 risk area slightly northward overnight and this seems reasonable given the hires guidance showing upper 60 degree dewpoints reach into southern Harris by early afternoon.
Heavy Rain:
Radar is already showing an increase in showers and thunderstorms and this trend will continue into the day. Potential for cell training ahead of the main line yields a heavy rainfall risk near/along the warm front today. No adjustments have been made to the rainfall totals with widespread 1-3 inches likely and isolated amounts of 4-5 inches. Given nearly saturated air column by midday, hourly rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible. Street flooding continues to be the main threat.
Wind:
Impressive wind profiles will come to bear over the region for much of the day with surface winds quickly responding to the steep pressure falls. Sustained winds of 25-35mph with gusts of 40-45mph will be common over much of the area for much of the day. Power outages will be possible. Very strong winds just above the surface will be transported to the ground in showers and thunderstorms and gusts of 50-60mph will be possible.
Coastal/Marine:
Dangerous marine conditions are developing. Southerly winds will increase rapidly this morning into the 30-40kt range with gusts of 50kts. Seas rapidly build 10-15ft offshore Gulf waters and 6-9 ft inland bays. Strong surface force on the water surface will result in minor coastal flooding of low lying areas this afternoon along the Gulf beaches and in the bays. Winds and seas will be slow to subside tonight behind the cold front. Small craft should be in port and remain in port today.
The latest...
Surface low pressure deepening near and to the north of Beeville TX will move ENE/NE across SE TX over the next several hours. Warm front extends from the surface low to north of Victoria and then ESE across southern Wharton into northern Brazoria and central Galveston County. Surface gradient continues to tighten over the area with frequent wind gusts of 30mph being observed. Winds have been gusting over 40mph this morning across the coastal waters including 46mph at the Buoy 20 miles east of Galveston and 41mph at the Brazos oil platform south of Matagorda County.
Warm sector air mass will continue to spread northward…possibly reaching the I-10 corridor from southern Austin County to Chambers County…along and south of this boundary the severe threat will be increasing over the next several hours as lift increases. Shear values are maximized in this area and damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible. With strong influx of western Gulf air mass quickly into the region temperatures have been able to warm to near 70 degrees over the Matagorda Bay region which is helping to increase surface based energy south of the warm front. There is nearly a 20 degree temperature spread across the warm from between northern Harris County and southern Wharton County.
Heavy rainfall will also be increasing with current cluster of strong thunderstorms from southern Colorado County to southern Austin County likely the beginning of a more sustained heavy rainfall threat along and just north of the warm front for the next several hours. This activity will likely move ENE/NE into Fort Bend, Waller, and Harris Counties over the next few hours. Street flooding will be possible under the heavier rainfall rates of 1-2 inches.
As the surface low moves across the region this afternoon, strong southerly winds will continue to increase with frequent gusts of 30-40mph expected over much of the region. Higher gusts of 45mph will be possible along and south of I-10.
Active weather will quickly unfold over the next several hours with multiple hazards
Severe weather…including all modes (damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes) will be possible
Heavy rainfall and street flooding will be possible.
Timing: 900am-500pm
Highest tornado and severe threat will be along and south of I-10…an isolated strong tornado is possible.
Powerful onshore winds of 35-45mph areawide will result in minor coastal flooding this afternoon
Wind advisory in effect for the entire area
Gale warning for all waters
Actions:
Have multiple ways to receive warnings today (enable cell phone emergency alerts)
Have a plan to react should a warning be issued for your area
For severe weather/tornado warnings:
Seek shelter in a sturdy well built structure on the lowest floor away from windows (interior closet or bathroom)
In office buildings/schools: shelter in an interior hallway away from windows or interior stairway. Do NOT shelter in areas with high vaulted ceilings (gyms), warehouses, ect.
Storms will be moving extremely fast, warning lead times will be short…act immediately if a warning is issued for your area.
Overview:
Highly impressive upper level storm system now over west Texas will bring numerous weather threats to Texas today. Strong lift is inducing pressure falls this morning over SC TX where a potent surface low will form and move ENE/NE across SE TX this afternoon. High resolution guidance shows “incredible” surface pressure falls on the order of 20mb in 6 hrs over our region today which will result in a very significant low level mass influx of deep moisture into the region. Current dewpoints are 58 at Palacios and 68 at Brownsville versus 39 at Livingston. As surface pressures tank, low level jet will quickly develop and transport mid and possibly upper 60 degree dewpoints from S TX to near the I-10 corridor this morning. Warm front looks to move through the coastal counties and at least into southern Wharton, Fort Bend and Harris with all areas along and south of this boundary likely primed for a robust severe weather potential.
Severe:
High resolution models continue to be aggressive with surface based instability developing over the southern portions of the area today and when combined with the “off the charts” shear in place, all severe weather modes are a concern. We shall see if the instability will be as great as the Hires data suggest, if so a fairly significant outbreak of severe weather including damaging tornadoes will be possible. Main focus of the severe threat will be along and south of I-10 including the metro Houston area. Supercell structures may evolve over the building warm sector late morning with an increasing tornado threat as low level winds remain backed out of the E/ESE and quickly veer to SW in the mid levels producing significant low level shear. Squall line quickly approaches from the west and sweeps across the region this afternoon…damaging winds will be likely with this line as 700mb jet punches in from the west.
SPC has nudged the 3 out of 5 risk area slightly northward overnight and this seems reasonable given the hires guidance showing upper 60 degree dewpoints reach into southern Harris by early afternoon.
Heavy Rain:
Radar is already showing an increase in showers and thunderstorms and this trend will continue into the day. Potential for cell training ahead of the main line yields a heavy rainfall risk near/along the warm front today. No adjustments have been made to the rainfall totals with widespread 1-3 inches likely and isolated amounts of 4-5 inches. Given nearly saturated air column by midday, hourly rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible. Street flooding continues to be the main threat.
Wind:
Impressive wind profiles will come to bear over the region for much of the day with surface winds quickly responding to the steep pressure falls. Sustained winds of 25-35mph with gusts of 40-45mph will be common over much of the area for much of the day. Power outages will be possible. Very strong winds just above the surface will be transported to the ground in showers and thunderstorms and gusts of 50-60mph will be possible.
Coastal/Marine:
Dangerous marine conditions are developing. Southerly winds will increase rapidly this morning into the 30-40kt range with gusts of 50kts. Seas rapidly build 10-15ft offshore Gulf waters and 6-9 ft inland bays. Strong surface force on the water surface will result in minor coastal flooding of low lying areas this afternoon along the Gulf beaches and in the bays. Winds and seas will be slow to subside tonight behind the cold front. Small craft should be in port and remain in port today.
The latest...
Surface low pressure deepening near and to the north of Beeville TX will move ENE/NE across SE TX over the next several hours. Warm front extends from the surface low to north of Victoria and then ESE across southern Wharton into northern Brazoria and central Galveston County. Surface gradient continues to tighten over the area with frequent wind gusts of 30mph being observed. Winds have been gusting over 40mph this morning across the coastal waters including 46mph at the Buoy 20 miles east of Galveston and 41mph at the Brazos oil platform south of Matagorda County.
Warm sector air mass will continue to spread northward…possibly reaching the I-10 corridor from southern Austin County to Chambers County…along and south of this boundary the severe threat will be increasing over the next several hours as lift increases. Shear values are maximized in this area and damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible. With strong influx of western Gulf air mass quickly into the region temperatures have been able to warm to near 70 degrees over the Matagorda Bay region which is helping to increase surface based energy south of the warm front. There is nearly a 20 degree temperature spread across the warm from between northern Harris County and southern Wharton County.
Heavy rainfall will also be increasing with current cluster of strong thunderstorms from southern Colorado County to southern Austin County likely the beginning of a more sustained heavy rainfall threat along and just north of the warm front for the next several hours. This activity will likely move ENE/NE into Fort Bend, Waller, and Harris Counties over the next few hours. Street flooding will be possible under the heavier rainfall rates of 1-2 inches.
As the surface low moves across the region this afternoon, strong southerly winds will continue to increase with frequent gusts of 30-40mph expected over much of the region. Higher gusts of 45mph will be possible along and south of I-10.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC015-089-157-201-473-481-241715-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0005.230124T1644Z-230124T1715Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1044 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
East central Colorado County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
West central Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 1115 AM CST.
* At 1044 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wallis, or
near Sealy, moving northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Katy, Sealy, Brookshire, Eldridge / West Oaks, southwestern Addicks
Park Ten, Wallis, Fulshear, Pine Island, Simonton, San Felipe,
Pattison, Orchard, Cinco Ranch, Weston Lakes and Monaville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
Tornado Watch Number 27
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Louisiana
Middle/Upper Texas Coast
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1050 AM until
600 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the
middle and upper TX coast this afternoon. Environmental conditions,
in particular strong low-level vertical shear, is expected to
support strong to severe thunderstorms, including a few supercells.
These supercells could be capable of all severe threats, including
tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Victoria TX to
25 miles east northeast of Lake Charles LA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23040.
Kinda odd that Waller was included but Montgomery wasn’t. If you hold a ruler parallel to the watch box….oh never mind…
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4284
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Absolutely miserable cold heavy rain here