000
FXUS64 KHGX 041130
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
Weak surface high pressure that will be building across the state
today will eventually be edging off to the east on Thursday night.
Moisture levels will remain low (rain chances at zero) throughout
the period. For temperatures, inland highs for today/Thursday will
range from the mid to upper 60s north to the low to mid 70s south
(mid to upper 60s are expected at the beaches) while lows areawide
bottom out in the 40s/50s. Some periods of high clouds can be
expected throughout the period too. 42
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
The surface high pressure that has been providing us the clear,
dry, near seasonal temperature days will continue its eastward
slide on Friday. This will induce a more east to then
southeasterly flow into our region bringing warmer, wetter weather
Friday and on through the weekend. High temperatures on Friday
will be in the mid 70s for most of the region and overnight lows
Friday night will be about 10 degrees warmer than the previous
night with minimum temperatures near 60. The moist easterly flow
on Friday over cooler ocean waters will mean coastal fog will
again start to become an issue.
An upper level low will be moving across the Central Plains with
the associated cold front moving through SE Texas Saturday night into
Sunday. Precipitation chances begin as early as Saturday morning
thanks to increasing PWATs and daytime heating, but looking like
the highest chances of thunderstorms will be with the frontal
passage Saturday night into Sunday. Rain chances look to end
Sunday night as the cold front exits into the Mississippi River
Valley. I would categorize this cold front as a Pacific cold front
rather than a true Artic cold front as temperatures don`t cool
all that much after FROPA. WAA will be at its peak on Saturday
with high temperatures approaching 80 in the Houston Metro. Cloud
cover and rain will keep high temperatures on Sunday in the upper
60s. Low temperatures through the weekend will be in the upper 40s
to low 50s. High pressure builds in for Monday bringing clear
conditions and then a weak upper level shortwave will be moving
across Texas on Tuesday. Little or no precipitation should spawn
from this shortwave as the PWATs wouldn`t have recovered following
the weekend`s cold front by that point.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
For the 04/12Z TAFs, mainly light and variable winds early this morning
becoming mainly W at around 10 knots and occasionally gusty (around
20 knots) late this morning through late this afternoon. Back to mainly
light and variable winds this evening, overnight and on into Thursday
morning. Only have FEW250/SCT250 for the clouds today. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
Light offshore flow will becoming northerly on Thursday and then
southeasterly on Friday as high pressure slides across the
region. No marine impacts are expected through Thursday, but the
southeasterly flow will bring increasing moisture on Friday. So,
there is a chance for sea fog developing as early as Friday
afternoon, and this threat will continue through Sunday morning.
An approaching cold front will begin to induce showers and
thunderstorms Saturday and continue until the cold front passes
Sunday evening. The southeasterly flow will increase to near 20
kts with gusts to 25kts Friday night through Saturday increasing
seas to 5 to 8 feet, so Small Craft Advisories may be needed
during this timeframe.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 41 69 48 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 46 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 54 65 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Fowler
January 2023
Good luck! College is very hard so I give you a ton of respect for chasing your dreams. I’m still considering going back sometime myself.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 9:51 pmProfessional Meteorology.tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 7:22 pmSo BS in Geosciences?captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 6:00 pm
It was great. I was very busy mostly with chemistry and calculus. Fortunately, I only had to take one semester of chemistry. Not my favorite subject to say the least. I also took a class called "weather analysis." It was fun and I learned a lot, but I never figured out how to do well on the quizzes for that class. So many abstract questions.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
Light to moderate E/NE winds with occasional gusts are expected
this afternoon. Winds should become light and variable this
evening with VFR conditions expected throughout the entirety of
the TAF period.
03
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
Light to moderate E/NE winds with occasional gusts are expected
this afternoon. Winds should become light and variable this
evening with VFR conditions expected throughout the entirety of
the TAF period.
03
69°F and sunny with a DP in the 30s. A Chamber of Commerce kind of day.
Mostly mild weather on the horizon.
A chance of rain this weekend and a brief southerly flow. Then back to the 60s for highs.
Mostly mild weather on the horizon.
A chance of rain this weekend and a brief southerly flow. Then back to the 60s for highs.
I know we have a lot of gardeners in our group. RIP to Randy Lemmon.
Oh wow, I just saw the news about Randy Lemmon. How sad! I loved listening to his shows on 740. RIP
Oh wow. That was unexpected. RIP. 
When I see warm water off the coast of Alaska, it generally favors negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO).
Here’s something strange I have noticed the last several days.
When I open the Weather App on my phone, it’s been showing a very large blob of unhealthy/hazardous air quality over the Houston area. But when you Google “Houston Air Quality” the map shows most stations are green/good with a couple in the moderate category. How can these two maps (supposedly observational maps not forecast maps) - how can they portray the current air quality so differently?
When I open the Weather App on my phone, it’s been showing a very large blob of unhealthy/hazardous air quality over the Houston area. But when you Google “Houston Air Quality” the map shows most stations are green/good with a couple in the moderate category. How can these two maps (supposedly observational maps not forecast maps) - how can they portray the current air quality so differently?
- Attachments
-
-
I can't remember which local met posted that there was en error with that sensor giving off a false readingjasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:38 am Here’s something strange I have noticed the last several days.
When I open the Weather App on my phone, it’s been showing a very large blob of unhealthy/hazardous air quality over the Houston area. But when you Google “Houston Air Quality” the map shows most stations are green/good with a couple in the moderate category. How can these two maps (supposedly observational maps not forecast maps) - how can they portray the current air quality so differently?
-
Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
- Contact:
Currently, this January is similar to 2021, and S2K has the archives to prove it!
Beware the Ides of February!Iceresistance wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 4:50 pm Currently, this January is similar to 2021, and S2K has the archives to prove it!
Well, it's not just that one sensor or station. It's the whole area. If have some time this weekend, I'll research the data sources for those maps. It seems odd there is such a vast discrepancy between the two.JDsGN wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:18 pmI can't remember which local met posted that there was en error with that sensor giving off a false readingjasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:38 am Here’s something strange I have noticed the last several days.
When I open the Weather App on my phone, it’s been showing a very large blob of unhealthy/hazardous air quality over the Houston area. But when you Google “Houston Air Quality” the map shows most stations are green/good with a couple in the moderate category. How can these two maps (supposedly observational maps not forecast maps) - how can they portray the current air quality so differently?
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1118 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1010 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023
Expect stratus to begin developing around the CLL area in the next
few hours...gradually filling in across most of the region
thereafter. There remain some mixed model signals in regards just
how far the cigs will lower and the potential for areas of fog.
In general, expect most to remain in MVFR territory, though IFR
conditions can`t be ruled out...moreso west of I-45. A gradual
improvement in flying conditions is anticipated by late morning
and things trend VFR areawide toward noon. Spotty showers are
anticipated during the day Saturday with the possibility of few
late afternoon tstms mixed in from IAH northward. Shower/storm
chances increase Saturday evening and overnight with the approach
and eventual passage of a cold front. 47
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 341 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023
We`ve got an afternoon of watching the thermometer today. As of 2
pm, both Houston climate sites at Hobby and IAH, as well as
Galveston, are three degrees short of their record high or less.
The early January sun may be relatively weak, but today it is
full, and may be getting a little extra boost from low level flow
that is just a shade west of southerly. Other than the warm
temperatures, which may be a bit controversial, there`s probably
pretty widespread agreement that the weather is lovely across the
area. Please enjoy it, as change is on the way.
Another consequence of the onshore flow at low levels is boosted
humidity. This will keep overnight lows up, likely in the 60s for
most, and only slipping into the upper 50s around Lake Livingston
and towards the Pineywoods. The ample moisture will also put us in
a position to see fog again tonight. Last night`s fog was mostly
in the western half of the area, but potential is probably more
area-wide tonight.
However, we do have a complicating factor in winds tonight. While
last night had your typical nighttime decoupling of the boundary
layer and a period of light, calm winds allowing for fog
formation...we may not quite get that tonight. If winds do stay
up, we may see less fog and more low stratus blanketing the area
in the overnight hours. As it stands, I still put plenty of fog in
the forecast, but did not go as aggressively on the intensity of
that fog as I might otherwise be inclined to. Seeing denser fog
with visibility around half a mile or less probably falls into
that "not likely, but also shouldn`t be too surprising if it
happens" range of 10-30 percent probability.
Fog should be out of the way late in the morning tomorrow, so
we`ll turn our focus to the cold front heading our way. By
tomorrow morning it should be making its way coastward, moving out
through North Texas and Central Texas. With the onshore flow, we
could get enough isentropic lift to squeeze out some light morning
showers, but it`ll be awfully iffy.
Odds for shower and storm development should increase through the
afternoon, particularly after 2pm. Once we get into the evening
hours, the front should be on our doorstep and starting to move
into the area, putting us in prime position to get more numerous
showers and storms. Storm motion should also raise flags about the
potential for training storms, which could cause some localized
flooding concerns if multiple rounds of heavy rain fall over
vulnerable spots.
Looking at the HREF probability-matched mean rainfall, there are
numerous spots indicating potential for 1-3 inches of rain over 3
hour windows Saturday night. Probabilities for exceeding 1 inch
per three hours are over 50 percent for much of that window, and a
low-end signal for the potential of getting 3 inches per three
hours (indicating at *least* an inch per hour rain rates, but
implying higher as that rain will not fall equally over the whole
three hours). Taking a broader look, the HREF does indicate
potential for a localized total of 5-10 inches of rain somewhere
in the area. While the environment may not be eye-poppingly
supportive of a heavy rain event, there`s enough ingredients and
hints in the guidance that you`ll want to be keyed in to
conditions if you are out and about Saturday night and early
Sunday morning, just to ensure you`ve got safe travels ahead.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023
The aforementioned cold front should push offshore Sunday morning,
with showers and storms tapering off throughout the day as moisture
diminishes. CAA and northerly flow behind the FROPA still appears
relatively weak, so look for highs largely in the 60s with lows in
the 40s to 50s for Sunday. An inverted trough should develop
offshore near the Deep South Texas coastline late Sunday night. This
feature will aim to lift north heading into Monday, allowing for
moisture to gradually recover across portions of the region. The
magnitude of this moisture recovery varies from model to model, with
the GFS leaning wetter than the ECMWF. Another mid to upper level
low is progged to dig across the Central Plains/Mississippi River
Valley on Monday, so it should bring another round of scattered
showers and isolated storms to SE Texas. The full extent of this
activity is still uncertain given the moisture discrepancies between
models, though rain chances will be highest in areas south of I-10
and especially over the Gulf of Mexico.
A mid to upper level ridge will build in across the central CONUS on
Tuesday as weak surface high pressure drops into SE Texas from the
Central Plains. Temperatures will be on the rise through mid week
with highs reaching the mid to lower 70s by Wednesday as onshore
flow returns. An upper level trough over the Central Plains is
progged to dig towards the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, draping
another cold front across the region. Moisture recovery appears to
be gradually and rather unimpressive with the latest suite of global
models. Look for another round of scattered showers and isolated
storms with its passage along with cooler temperatures in its
wake.
&&
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1118 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1010 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023
Expect stratus to begin developing around the CLL area in the next
few hours...gradually filling in across most of the region
thereafter. There remain some mixed model signals in regards just
how far the cigs will lower and the potential for areas of fog.
In general, expect most to remain in MVFR territory, though IFR
conditions can`t be ruled out...moreso west of I-45. A gradual
improvement in flying conditions is anticipated by late morning
and things trend VFR areawide toward noon. Spotty showers are
anticipated during the day Saturday with the possibility of few
late afternoon tstms mixed in from IAH northward. Shower/storm
chances increase Saturday evening and overnight with the approach
and eventual passage of a cold front. 47
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 341 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023
We`ve got an afternoon of watching the thermometer today. As of 2
pm, both Houston climate sites at Hobby and IAH, as well as
Galveston, are three degrees short of their record high or less.
The early January sun may be relatively weak, but today it is
full, and may be getting a little extra boost from low level flow
that is just a shade west of southerly. Other than the warm
temperatures, which may be a bit controversial, there`s probably
pretty widespread agreement that the weather is lovely across the
area. Please enjoy it, as change is on the way.
Another consequence of the onshore flow at low levels is boosted
humidity. This will keep overnight lows up, likely in the 60s for
most, and only slipping into the upper 50s around Lake Livingston
and towards the Pineywoods. The ample moisture will also put us in
a position to see fog again tonight. Last night`s fog was mostly
in the western half of the area, but potential is probably more
area-wide tonight.
However, we do have a complicating factor in winds tonight. While
last night had your typical nighttime decoupling of the boundary
layer and a period of light, calm winds allowing for fog
formation...we may not quite get that tonight. If winds do stay
up, we may see less fog and more low stratus blanketing the area
in the overnight hours. As it stands, I still put plenty of fog in
the forecast, but did not go as aggressively on the intensity of
that fog as I might otherwise be inclined to. Seeing denser fog
with visibility around half a mile or less probably falls into
that "not likely, but also shouldn`t be too surprising if it
happens" range of 10-30 percent probability.
Fog should be out of the way late in the morning tomorrow, so
we`ll turn our focus to the cold front heading our way. By
tomorrow morning it should be making its way coastward, moving out
through North Texas and Central Texas. With the onshore flow, we
could get enough isentropic lift to squeeze out some light morning
showers, but it`ll be awfully iffy.
Odds for shower and storm development should increase through the
afternoon, particularly after 2pm. Once we get into the evening
hours, the front should be on our doorstep and starting to move
into the area, putting us in prime position to get more numerous
showers and storms. Storm motion should also raise flags about the
potential for training storms, which could cause some localized
flooding concerns if multiple rounds of heavy rain fall over
vulnerable spots.
Looking at the HREF probability-matched mean rainfall, there are
numerous spots indicating potential for 1-3 inches of rain over 3
hour windows Saturday night. Probabilities for exceeding 1 inch
per three hours are over 50 percent for much of that window, and a
low-end signal for the potential of getting 3 inches per three
hours (indicating at *least* an inch per hour rain rates, but
implying higher as that rain will not fall equally over the whole
three hours). Taking a broader look, the HREF does indicate
potential for a localized total of 5-10 inches of rain somewhere
in the area. While the environment may not be eye-poppingly
supportive of a heavy rain event, there`s enough ingredients and
hints in the guidance that you`ll want to be keyed in to
conditions if you are out and about Saturday night and early
Sunday morning, just to ensure you`ve got safe travels ahead.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2023
The aforementioned cold front should push offshore Sunday morning,
with showers and storms tapering off throughout the day as moisture
diminishes. CAA and northerly flow behind the FROPA still appears
relatively weak, so look for highs largely in the 60s with lows in
the 40s to 50s for Sunday. An inverted trough should develop
offshore near the Deep South Texas coastline late Sunday night. This
feature will aim to lift north heading into Monday, allowing for
moisture to gradually recover across portions of the region. The
magnitude of this moisture recovery varies from model to model, with
the GFS leaning wetter than the ECMWF. Another mid to upper level
low is progged to dig across the Central Plains/Mississippi River
Valley on Monday, so it should bring another round of scattered
showers and isolated storms to SE Texas. The full extent of this
activity is still uncertain given the moisture discrepancies between
models, though rain chances will be highest in areas south of I-10
and especially over the Gulf of Mexico.
A mid to upper level ridge will build in across the central CONUS on
Tuesday as weak surface high pressure drops into SE Texas from the
Central Plains. Temperatures will be on the rise through mid week
with highs reaching the mid to lower 70s by Wednesday as onshore
flow returns. An upper level trough over the Central Plains is
progged to dig towards the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, draping
another cold front across the region. Moisture recovery appears to
be gradually and rather unimpressive with the latest suite of global
models. Look for another round of scattered showers and isolated
storms with its passage along with cooler temperatures in its
wake.
&&
Ain't this cute. Skipped fall. Had 2-3 days of winter, then Sprummer ever since.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I might hit 80-81 today
, this weather pattern is absolutely garbage!
, this weather pattern is absolutely garbage!Winter will come back. We’re in La Niña. This is how they work. One extreme to the other.
Rain looks iffy. Probably a bust. That's fine with me.
A sunny and mild (lower DP) after that. Also, fine.
It looks like a war east, cooler west battle until later in the month...
A sunny and mild (lower DP) after that. Also, fine.
It looks like a war east, cooler west battle until later in the month...