January 2023

[don]

Yep,models are coming in even colder tonight,if the trend continues parts of SE Texas may need to be put under a winter weather advisory or warning.

[DoctorMu]

Looks like no winter precipitation for SE Texas. Unless there is an underestimated element to the forecast models that they are not picking up on.

There has been but not for Houston.

The temperature is really tanking out there. 20° drop in the last couple of hours.

Make that a 30°F drop in temps.

[Stratton20]

RDPS 00z shifts south east as well, oh boy

[DoctorMu]

Yep,models are coming in even colder tonight,if the trend continues parts of SE Texas may need to be put under a winter weather advisory or warning.

Exactly as predicted. You learn a thing or two living in the same town for decades.

[DoctorMu]

RDPS 00z shifts south east as well, oh boy

Reality hitting. Humans know how to integrate physics, their knowledge, and nowcasting experience.

[DoctorMu]

RDPS 00z shifts south east as well, oh boy

NAM is ramming it home.

[don]

This setup is almost identical to last years February 3rd ice storm that affected a big chunk of the state.Global models greatly underestimated the shallow air,and winter weather advisories and warnings were issued.When just a day or two before that the frozen precip was expected to stay only in central and north Texas.(NOTE:this map isn't current,just a map of the event from last year)

[Stratton20]

And this ice storm could easily be even more significant than that pne from last february, we got so much moisture to work with plus multiple disturbances moving across the state

[DoctorMu]

This setup is almost identical to last years February 3rd ice storm that affected a big chunk of the state.Global models greatly underestimated the shallow air,and winter weather advisories and warnings were issued.When just a day or two before that the frozen precip was expected to stay only in central and north Texas.(NOTE:this map isn't current,just a map of the event from last year)

Yep.

The Hill Country has been upgraded to a Winter storm warning.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
927 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

TXZ171>173-184>190-192-301130-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WS.A.0001.230130T1800Z-230201T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0001.230130T1500Z-230201T1800Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-Gillespie-
Kendall-Blanco-Travis-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Rocksprings,
Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne, Blanco,
and Austin
927 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of up
to two tenths of an inch will be possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Texas.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Monday to noon CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freezing rain could begin as early as
tomorrow morning across the warning area. Icing will be possible
mainly during the late night through mid-morning hours when
temperatures will be coldest, though minor glazing of elevated
surfaces could occur by the afternoon commute tomorrow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages.

The latest road conditions for the state can be obtained at
drivetexas.org.

&&

$$

[DoctorMu]

And this ice storm could easily be even more significant than that pne from last february, we got so much moisture to work with plus multiple disturbances moving across the state

days and days of it.

[walsean1]

Yep,models are coming in even colder tonight,if the trend continues parts of SE Texas may need to be put under a winter weather advisory or warning.

If it is indeed the case that the models have underestimated this cold air, that would be crazy. It just like today where we were placed under a flash flood watch since I think the rain was also underestimated.

[DoctorMu]

Waiting for NAM and HRRR updates.

[walsean1]

So models have shifted further south but keeps Houston/Beaumont/Port Arthur out of this for now?

[DoctorMu]

So models have shifted further south but keeps Houston/Beaumont/Port Arthur out of this for now?

I would say so. It will still be 5°F+ colder than the #notsosmartphone forecasts.

[Cromagnum]

I don't see this being anything at all down here. Even our local Mets only show 40s and 50s all week.

[Cpv17]

I don't see this being anything at all down here. Even our local Mets only show 40s and 50s all week.

It’ll be colder for the western half of southeast TX, especially initially. And it’ll definitely be colder than the 40’s and 50’s. Will be in the 30’s for a lot of us and 40’s for the rest. Sometimes you have to make your own forecast based off of experience with past events.

[don]

Temps will be stuck in the 30s and 40s(nearly all the reliable mesoscale models have temps staying in the 30's and low 40's for most of SE Texas for atleast a couple of days.).We see this almost every year with these shallow arctic air-masses.I'm not sure when the NWS will learn to ignore the globals in these situations and undercut the models.Instead they will be playing catch up all week just like last year and many times before with these shallow airmases.For right now i expect most areas to be ok and just receive a very chilly rain,but it may be a different story for northwest counties (Brazos Valley)

[TexasMetBlake]

Quick update: possible expansion of WWA to include San Antonio as well as areas further south and east is being monitored for the 4am update. Wouldn’t surprise me at all.

[don]

Advisory issued for the Brazos Valley.

[jasons2k]

Just a cold rain for most of us. Maybe some ice north and west of the metro area.

I also no longer see any signals for a major arctic intrusion this month. If I can skate through this weekend without a freeze (it will be close) then my last freeze of the season may be behind me already.

Winter is about done folks.