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DoctorMu CMC has a light glazing for CS

TBH, the entire winter so far has gone as expected in CLL. It's been cooler than normal until later today. January thaw after Christmas dry cold. We have colder weather ahead later in the upcoming week.

In the Houston area, the warm sector has dominated, including last weekend's severe weather.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:26 pm DoctorMu CMC has a light glazing for CS

That's no surprise. A Shipley's Donuts layer of glaze is possible.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:54 am I just looked at the mesoscale models for tomorrow and I’m not really seeing much rain around for a lot of us yet rain chances are like 80-90%. I don’t see anything that should warrant such high chances.

I don't see that...I guess it depends where you're located.For the eastern half of SE Texas (Houston and points east) rain chances still look pretty good,with most models showing widespread thunderstorms developing tomorrow morning/afternoon.Could be some localized street flooding also tomorrow.

don wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:46 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:54 am I just looked at the mesoscale models for tomorrow and I’m not really seeing much rain around for a lot of us yet rain chances are like 80-90%. I don’t see anything that should warrant such high chances.

I don't see that...I guess it depends where you're located.For the eastern half of SE Texas (Houston and points east) rain chances still look pretty good,with most models showing widespread thunderstorms developing tomorrow morning/afternoon.Could be some localized street flooding also tomorrow.

wpc_excessive_rainfsll_day2.us_sc.png

I was mainly talking about my area. I should’ve mentioned that. My bad.

Nothing unhealthy about living in reality, but chosing to dodge it is definately unhealthy.

Still icy glaze on NAM12k from a Brenham to College Station to Buffalo line.

A very unstable line and complex forecast in a Battle Royale between Artic air and the SE ridge. The Baja ULL is a fly in the ointment that NAM and CMC are struggle with and GFS is ignoring. The Euro isn't sure. Neither the Euro nor GFS are great in the winter with arctic air masses.

18zNAM is edging ice and snow closer and closer to covering CLL.

How is the storm situation looking for Sunday?

Cold Front faster than expected.

00z NAM is colder and now has wintry precip much further south, in CS and even in some of our western counties now fwiw

When is this supposed to hit

Karen their are some differences in timing on the arrival of the srctic air, but id say roughly tommorow afternoon for far northern counties, and early Monday morning for everyone else

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:17 pm How is the storm situation looking for Sunday?

For areas along and east of the I-45 corridor looks like widespread thunderstorms with some areas possibly getting 3+ inches of rain.Models show a band or two of training storms along the slow moving frontal boundary.But they differ on exactly where the bands setup,some have the band setting up closer to the coast while others have it setting up along or north of the I-10 corridor.The further west you are from I-45 the drier it looks to be tomorrow, with a tight gradient of rainfall amounts over the area.

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:08 pm Nothing unhealthy about living in reality, but chosing to dodge it is definately unhealthy.

Seriously? You could be in the bullseye for a foot of snow within 48 hours of an event and you’d still think like, oh we may get a dusting but that’s about it. Yeah, I’d definitely say that’s living in reality.

Trying to understand what to expect for SETX. When will the cold air arrive here? Im guessing no winter precip for us.

sambucol cold air will most likely arrive by monday midday or maybe morning, as for precip, likely just cold rain for yall with the exception for NW counties, trust me you should be happy with just cold rain, this setup is all out ice/sleet, no snow, ice is miserable

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:48 am

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:57 am jasons2k i personally dont find weather apps to be reliable for temps, mainly just for the radar

I pretty much make my own forecast for temps if I’m being completely honest. And I don’t rely on the NWS or apps for too much of anything. I ride or die with my own forecast. Just being honest.

Same here but the NWS point forecast for my location plus my old rule of thumb: IAH - 1 for lows and IAH + 1 for highs…it’s usually spot-on. If not, within 2 degrees. The misses stand out but it’s infrequent.

Katdaddy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:55 am It was a sad day when I heard the news 9/28/2018 of Ticka's passing. Glad I had a chance to meet her at our Kemah gathering years ago.

Indeed it was. She was one of the original members on S2K when we started.

We need to plan another gathering. I’d like to meet our local members.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sun Jan 29, 2023 12:08 am

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:48 am

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:57 am jasons2k i personally dont find weather apps to be reliable for temps, mainly just for the radar

I pretty much make my own forecast for temps if I’m being completely honest. And I don’t rely on the NWS or apps for too much of anything. I ride or die with my own forecast. Just being honest.

Same here but the NWS point forecast for my location plus my old rule of thumb: IAH - 1 for lows and IAH + 1 for highs…it’s usually spot-on. If not, within 2 degrees. The misses stand out but it’s infrequent.

Yeah, that’s actually a pretty good idea!