February 2023

[Stratton20]

yeah i would probably hold on actual planting for another month or so, there are definitely signs that winter will be coming back around mid month and beyond

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

Morning low clouds/fog have cleared for the most part with mostly
VFR conditions expected the rest of this afternoon with generally
moderate S/SE winds (10-15kts) and stronger gusts (20-25kts). The
winds and gusts should weaken this evening, but remain strong en-
ough just above the surface to have impacts on fog development as
we head into the overnight/early morning hours. However, the lone
exception could be GLS which may still have impacts from sea fog.
41

&&

[DoctorMu]

February gardens are always a dice roll. No harm in getting soil ready and supplies gathered though.

I mean, there's going to be a freeze later this week in CLL.

Besides nothing grows worth a damn in our gray clay soil unless injected by multiple mega treatments of high nitrogen fertilizer. Except weeds and sometimes a boxwood or a tree.

[Cromagnum]

Quite windy today already.

[Cpv17]

So far the mesoscale models show most of the rain north of SETX for tomorrow and Wednesday. They don’t really show much around here.

[Thundersleet]

Katdaddy, do you have a clue about when & where everyone on this weather forum can another get together?

[redneckweather]

Yep, I won't plant till March but time to get the soil turned over. Man, I was out and about yesterday and Spring is everywhere. The yellow jasmine on my back fence is everywhere, weeds galore, plum trees in full bloom etc etc. Maybe a light freeze this weekend but that won't hurt anything. Love seeing life coming back to the landscape.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023


With the strong WAA/onshore winds in place across SE TX, look for
a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings this afternoon with spotty showers
possible. Lower CIGS/VIS are expected this evening with decreased
winds ahead of the front. But, models are continuing with a slow-
er FROPA trend and have adjusted the timing a bit. Will keep VCTS
in for frontal passage, which could extend into late Weds morning
or early afternoon for the southern terminals. 41

&&

[jasons2k]

Yep, I won't plant till March but time to get the soil turned over. Man, I was out and about yesterday and Spring is everywhere. The yellow jasmine on my back fence is everywhere, weeds galore, plum trees in full bloom etc etc. Maybe a light freeze this weekend but that won't hurt anything. Love seeing life coming back to the landscape.

Amen to that. It’s my favorite time of the year. Nothing cheers you up more than a warm spring day, hearing the birds, and seeing everything bloom and come back to life.

[Stratton20]

I really feel bad for anyones plants that have begun to spring, because based on what im seeing in the ensembles and now the operational runs, their is a good chance that we might have a couple of freezes left in store, at least light ones

[jasons2k]

I really feel bad for anyones plants that have begun to spring, because based on what im seeing in the ensembles and now the operational runs, their is a good chance that we might have a couple of freezes left in store, at least light ones

Native plants will do just fine in a light freeze. The only issues would be with tender tropicals or vegetables already in ground. Most people who took the trouble to plant them would cover them up. There’s always the peaches though, if they bloom.

As long as we don’t have a hard freeze we should be OK. This weekend looks like a light freeze, if I even get one.

Jack Frost is running out of opportunities. February is a short month and March will arrive quickly.

Personally, I’m waiting until March 1st. Then, I will assess the two week outlook before I put anything new in the ground. That’s my usual routine. Only failed me once in 17 years.

[DoctorMu]

Our last freeze is usually right before or during Spring Break. Spring Break, once the weather cooperates, is planting time in mid-March.

29°F on Friday night here - that's too close to a hard freeze to take a big chance.

[Katdaddy]

Katdaddy, do you have a clue about when & where everyone on this weather forum can another get together?

Hurricane Preparedness meetings are the best palace to meet up.

[don]

Need to keep an eye on the strong upperlevel low the models have moving and ejecting over the state around valentines. There could be another severe weather event.With a negative tilted system and strong shear with the warm sector over SE Texas.Several models also show the triple point setting up over SE Texas.SPC already mentions the possibility of severe weather in SE Texas next week.System has that "look" of a potential outbreak if everything comes together...

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5 Saturday/Sunday...
Little if any severe-weather potential is currently expected.

...Days 6-7 Monday/Tuesday...
Related to the probable east/northeastward advancement of a
low-latitude upper-level trough early next week, at least some
severe-weather potential could begin to increase by around Monday
across the southern tier of the CONUS. After a late-week frontal
intrusion across the Gulf of Mexico, the primary uncertainty is the
timing/quality of air mass modification and low-level moistening
early next week over the Gulf of Mexico. Most global guidance has
trended slower/less moist inland across Texas and the Lower
Mississippi Valley early next week. Regardless, some severe risk
could occur as early as Monday across south-central, and more so,
southeast Texas. The severe potential may expand eastward on Tuesday
to potentially include the middle Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi
Valley.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 081146
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
546 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 423 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

Slow moving cold front has moved across our northwest counties early
this morning, and expect this boundary to take its time heading toward
the Houston area during the remaining morning hours. In the afternoon,
expecting the front to pick up some speed and move eastward across the
remainder of the area and off the coast before sunset with the help
of the ejecting mid/upper level low. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
have been dotting the area so far with the greatest concentration near/
along the front itself. This trend should continue for the remainder
of the day with all rains coming to an end early in the evening. We`ll
be monitoring for any strong/severe storms and possible locally heavy
rainfall throughout the day.

High temperatures today are a little tricky and will depend on the location
and movement of the front. Did our best to show highs possibly reaching
the 70s for much of the area ahead of the front and falling into and
remaining in the 50s behind the front. We will adjust the forecast as
the day progresses to reflect the front`s movement. Lows tonight will
range from the upper 30s well inland (north and northwest) to around
50 at the beaches. Look for mostly sunny skies on Thursday with highs
mostly in an upper 60s to around 70 range. In the wake of the passage
of a reinforcing cold front, we`ll have another cool night Thursday
night with lows mainly in the 40s along with breezy northwest winds.

42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

The period will start with much cooler and drier conditions as
strong CAA sets up in the wake of Thursday night`s reinforcing
front. Strong 850MB to near surface northerly winds will move across
the region on Friday. Wind speeds could be in the 20-25 MPH range
with gusts of 23-33 KTS for much of the day. Thus, continued to
place winds slightly higher than the model blends. High temperatures
on Friday will only reach the 50s areawide, with the cooler
temperatures across our northern counties. Because the day will be
pretty breezy, temperatures will feel even cooler outdoors, so make
sure to have an extra layer ready in particular during the evening
and early night hours when temperatures are expected to dip quickly.
By early Saturday morning, low temperatures will be near or below
freezing temperatures; most of Southeast Texas will be in the 32-35
degree range but the Burleson, Brazos, Madison, Grimes, and Houston
counties will likely see lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. It is
recommended to protect outdoor pipes, cover plants sensitive to
these temperatures, bring pets indoors and make sure to dress in
layers in you plan to spend time outdoors.

The weekend will continue to be mostly dry and cool with highs still
in the 50s on Saturday and lows dropping to the low to mid 30s
inland and the upper 30s to low 40s along the coasts early Sunday
morning, lowest temperatures over the northern sectors. The good
news is that winds will relax on Saturday as surface high pressure
builds over the region and with mostly sunny skies, it will be feel
more comfortable for those who plan or want to spend time outdoors.
Winds will gradually turn southeasterly on Sunday and begin to bring
in some warmer moist air from the western Gulf waters. Low level
moisture will start to climb, resulting in an increase in cloud
coverage from west to east during the day. Skies are expected to
turn into mostly cloudy by Sunday evening. Temperatures will also
warm up into the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the area north of
I-10 and in the low to mid 60s over areas south of I-10.

Monday into Tuesday, a shift in the weather pattern is forecast as
moisture continues to increase and a mid to upper level low moves
across the Southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to begin Monday morning and increase Monday night into Tuesday
morning as a surface low pressure and frontal boundary moves across
our local area. Stay tuned these next few days for more information
regarding the weather impacts for early next week.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 546 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

A mix of mainly MVFR/IFR ceilings and some fog can be expected today
as the cold front moves slowly eastward across the area. Ceilings/
visibilities could be reduced further in areas of RA/SHRA/TSRA.
Winds will shift to the W and NW behind the front. All rains will
come to an end from W to E this afternoon through early this evening
with VFR conditions developing/persisting in the evening through
overnight hours. VFR tomorrow too.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 423 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

Areas of patchy to dense sea fog will continue to affect the bays
and nearshore waters through this afternoon. Winds will turn
northerly and increase later this afternoon as a slow moving cold
front moves through the region, ending the chances of sea fog. Small
Craft Advisories and Caution flags will be in effect from this
afternoon through this evening for moderate to strong winds and
elevated seas. Periods of showers and storms are expected ahead and
along the front, and may result in locally higher winds and seas in
and around strong storms. Although winds relax and seas decrease on
Thursday, another reinforcing front will move through late Thursday
night and result in much stronger northerly winds in it`s wake.
Winds will quickly strengthen early Friday to 22-28 KTS with gusts
around gale strength. Waves will increase shortly after and could be
as high as 10-12 feet along the offshore waters (20-60NM offshore).
These conditions are expected to prevail through Friday night,
gradually improving Saturday morning. Advisories will be required
from Friday morning to early Saturday morning. A Gale Watch may also
be issued soon for frequent gusts of 35-40 KTS during that time
period.

Winds and seas will continue to decrease Saturday into Sunday as
surface high pressure moves across the region. Onshore winds will
return Sunday and increase Sunday night into Monday as the local
pressure gradient tightens. Chance of showers and thunderstorms also
expected to being Monday and continue into Tuesday.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 39 69 42 / 80 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 43 70 45 / 70 30 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 50 62 49 / 80 40 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-335-
350-355.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CST this
evening for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 2 PM CST this afternoon
through this evening for GMZ335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

[Stratton20]

Ill pass on severe weather, no one needs that miserable stuff especially on valentines day, though that same storm system is a key player here as it should begin the process of pulling down colder air from canada

[DoctorMu]

In the upper 40s here in CLL. We should see some sun tomorrow and through the weekend. Looking forward to cool, sunny weather.

Next week is cool to seasonable as well with a chance of rain Tue/Wed of next week. I think most of the energy will be north of us. We'll see.

[Stratton20]

The GFS is beginning to get my interest

[jasons2k]

I just went outside and emptied more than expected - 0.94"

I didn't check the thermometer first! I didn't expect 52° outside already. I was still in my shorts from that 78° earlier. Time for another fire. My wife and M-I-L are cooking Cuban Chicken and Yellow Rice in the dutch oven - yummy!

[Cpv17]

What the heck? I wasn’t expecting much of anything here at all today and I just got home and emptied 2.08” out the gauge. Major surprise. I looked at the mesoscale models last night and none of the ones I saw showed much of anything here.