I will take the rain over a warm February.
February 2023
But humid. My issue is dewpoints over 60°F. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s/hear 70°F in February is just wrong. By April or May, we'll see DPs in the 70s again.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 20, 2023 7:15 pm Euro weeklies are cold for march lol, but yeah the next 7-10 days look absolutely miserable, dry and nasty warm
Warm, even hot (summer only) is OK if the DP is down. If it's not going to rain anyway.
In the Carolinas we could have 80s in March, especially April, but the DP was in the 50s or even 40s. The averages in March or April have a 24° dropoff at night on average. There's only a 15°F reduction in nightime lows vs. daily highs in the forecast this week.
My A/C is cranking. The mosquito hawks are back early. Bleh.
The cold front on Thur/Friday progged to make it to about Palestine - Buffalo, TX, then die.
Dang it. This SE ridge per 500mb anomalies on the ensembles is going to be a problem for awhile.
I'm concerned about a warm/hot, dry spring and lock down by the Death Ridge by June.
I'm concerned about a warm/hot, dry spring and lock down by the Death Ridge by June.
-
Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
- Contact:
Were coming into a more Neutral ENSO in a few months, the La Nina is slowly decaying away.
Temps are fine with me, spent the evening outside, but we will need rain soon.
The mosquito hawks never really left here completely. I’ve seen them on and off all winter, but the last few days I have seen more.
I am concerned the cap from hell is coming.
The mosquito hawks never really left here completely. I’ve seen them on and off all winter, but the last few days I have seen more.
I am concerned the cap from hell is coming.
It's not looking good.
- Attachments
-
-
-
redneckweather
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
Winter is DONE as the mid to long range shows nothing significant coming down...no more chance of freezing temps. Spring has puked all over our landscape already with even some bluebonnets already popping up. My cardio workouts will now be outside and time to hit the bulkheads for catfish and crappie!
So much for that cold February some were pushing…
I knew it all along lol
- Attachments
-
It wouldn’t be so bad if we could at least get some rain and lower the dew points back down into the 50’s.
Summer will be March to November this year. Book it.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I respectfully disagree lol
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
No, it won't. Don't be dramatic.
Now, I hate anything over 70 so yeah, March to November sucks for me, but I see nothing suggesting a warm fall with a weak-moderate Nino, and I don't see a scorcher of a Spring on the horizon. Warm, yeah, but 80s in February don't mean an early Summer, and 30s/40s in October don't mean an early Winter. They are events to be treated separately from the season.
Team #NeverSummer
Yeah - We had a cool Feb 2022 and a scorching summer. I'm still a little concerned about rain this Spring.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:55 pmNo, it won't. Don't be dramatic.
Now, I hate anything over 70 so yeah, March to November sucks for me, but I see nothing suggesting a warm fall with a weak-moderate Nino, and I don't see a scorcher of a Spring on the horizon. Warm, yeah, but 80s in February don't mean an early Summer, and 30s/40s in October don't mean an early Winter. They are events to be treated separately from the season.
Feast or famine regardless, right?
I think it's gonna be a rough year for plants. Freeze shock, then risk of dry spring. Summer is gonna be summer no matter what.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:51 pmYeah - We had a cool Feb 2022 and a scorching summer. I'm still a little concerned about rain this Spring.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:55 pmNo, it won't. Don't be dramatic.
Now, I hate anything over 70 so yeah, March to November sucks for me, but I see nothing suggesting a warm fall with a weak-moderate Nino, and I don't see a scorcher of a Spring on the horizon. Warm, yeah, but 80s in February don't mean an early Summer, and 30s/40s in October don't mean an early Winter. They are events to be treated separately from the season.
Feast or famine regardless, right?
Its already in the 80s and humid this week which is gross. (Yes I need to move, but it's not gonna be in the cards for awhile).MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:55 pmNo, it won't. Don't be dramatic.
Now, I hate anything over 70 so yeah, March to November sucks for me, but I see nothing suggesting a warm fall with a weak-moderate Nino, and I don't see a scorcher of a Spring on the horizon. Warm, yeah, but 80s in February don't mean an early Summer, and 30s/40s in October don't mean an early Winter. They are events to be treated separately from the season.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 221144
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
544 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Expect windy conditions through the early to mid afternoon as the
area gets sandwiched between high pressure to the east and a
developing low pressure system to the west. This will tighten the
pressure gradient over East Texas causing a strong 925mb jet, and
some of these winds will mix down to the surface causing frequent
wind gusts of up to 25 to 35mph. This LLJ will be quickly exiting to
the east, so the windy conditions will be ending for areas west
of I-45 by 1pm and then for the entire area by 3 to 4pm. A Wind
Advisory is in effect through Noon for the coastal areas due to
the frequent wind gusts, but this may get extended into the
afternoon for the counties around Galveston Bay as the higher
winds linger. A weak boundary associated with the low pressure
system to the west will enter the area this afternoon bringing a
slight chance of showers across the northern third of the area, a
temporary westerly wind shift, and drier conditions causing
clearing skies. This boundary will stall somewhere between I-10
and the coast this evening before retreating back northwards
through the night causing a return to moist, southerly flow. Light
winds tonight will lead to the potential for areas of dense fog
developing that persists into Thursday morning. There will be a
reprieve from this fog during the day on Thursday, but expect
foggy conditions to return Thursday night into Friday.
The strong southerly flow will lead to well above normal
temperatures with highs this afternoon getting into the mid to upper
80s across the area. Cloud cover on Thursday will lead to slightly
cooler conditions, but afternoon highs will still get into the low
to mid 80s. Overnight lows tonight and Thursday night will be near
record high minimums with temperatures not falling below the mid
to upper 60s for most of the area.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
A strong building mid/upper ridge over Florida will nudge
westward on Friday, pushing 500 MB heights into the 588-592 dam
range. At the surface, continued southeasterly flow will bring
both moisture advection and WAA into SE Texas. The only potential
complication in Friday`s forecast is a weak frontal boundary that
could seep into our CWA. The 12 KM NAM is particularly bullish
with bringing this frontal boundary farther south into our region.
Though the front will be pushing into a PWAT rich environment,
the strong capping associated with the ridge will keep PoPs low on
Friday. However, the presence of the front does complicate the
temperature forecast, especially over our northern counties. For
now, we have opted for Friday afternoon temps in the 70s over our
northern counties. For most of the rest of the CWA, the temp
forecast remains in the low-80s with muggy dew points. Areas near
the coast are likely to be a bit cooler in the 70s thanks to the
cool Gulf waters. Overnight lows are expected to generally be in
the 60s.
By Saturday, the weak frontal boundary should lift back to the
north. With continued ridging, onshore flow, and slightly warmer
850 MB temps, expect Saturday to be another warm and muggy day
with highs generally in the low/mid 80s (70s near the coast).
Ridging aloft is expected to start breaking down on Sunday. The
resulting cooling aloft could add enough instability to kick off a
few showers, especially over our northern counties. However, PoPs
on Sunday remain quite low. By Monday, a mid/upper trough over the
Desert Southwest is expected to eject out over the central plains.
The introduction of some modest PVA as well as the potential for
an associated surface cold front may provide the ascent we need to
induce better rainfall chances by Monday. However, the latest
global deterministic guidance continues to suggest that the bulk
of the large scale ascent will remain north of SE Texas.
Therefore, Monday`s PoPs remain modest (20-30 percent north of
I-10, 10-20 percent south of I-10).
Monday`s front could be strong enough to bring a noticeable air
mass change. Perhaps we can drop those highs down into the 70s
with much lower humidity. The drier air would also allow
temperatures to drop more at night. Therefore, we may trade our
current overnight temps in the 60s for overnight lows in the 50s.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 506 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
MVFR CIGs will continue through the mid morning for terminals west
of I-45, and then through the early afternoon for the terminals
east of I-45. GLS will have periods of IFR conditions through the
early morning hours as sea fog impacts the terminal. Strong
southerly winds of 15 to 20kts sustained with gusts to 30kts will
continue through the late morning to early afternoon, then
becoming light this evening and through Thursday morning. The
light winds combined with returning moisture will lead to the
return of low clouds and fog tonight. CIGs of 500ft or less will
impact GLS by midnight with MVFR conditions of CIGs to 1500ft
occuring up through IAH. By 9 to 11z, CIGS less than 500ft will
spread across the entire area and remain in place through the
early morning hours on Thursday. There will also be areas of dense
fog forming overnight across much of the region bringing
visibilities down to at least 3 miles with periods of periods of
visibilities below 1/2 mile. MVFR conditions with CIGs around 1500
to 2000ft will return by noon on Thursday for much of the region,
but GLS may stay in IFR conditions all day due to periods of sea
fog.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
South winds of 15 to 25 knots along with seas increasing to 6 to
10 feet are expected this morning. Winds and seas should begin to
decrease this afternoon. Though advisory level winds are expected
to end this afternoon, it may take until overnight tonight or very
early tomorrow morning for seas to drop below advisory levels,
especially for areas more than 20 NM offshore. Light to moderate
onshore flow is expected to continue through the weekend. Areas of
sea fog will be possible Thursday through the weekend. If winds
decrease enough tomorrow, then areas of sea fog will be possible
as early as Wednesday night. The best chance of sea fog will be
during the evening, overnight, and morning hours. Increasing
onshore winds are possible by late Sunday into Monday as the next
frontal boundary approaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 62 79 64 / 20 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 86 66 83 68 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 65 72 64 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ214-236>238-313-
335>338-436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ350-
355.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 221144
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
544 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Expect windy conditions through the early to mid afternoon as the
area gets sandwiched between high pressure to the east and a
developing low pressure system to the west. This will tighten the
pressure gradient over East Texas causing a strong 925mb jet, and
some of these winds will mix down to the surface causing frequent
wind gusts of up to 25 to 35mph. This LLJ will be quickly exiting to
the east, so the windy conditions will be ending for areas west
of I-45 by 1pm and then for the entire area by 3 to 4pm. A Wind
Advisory is in effect through Noon for the coastal areas due to
the frequent wind gusts, but this may get extended into the
afternoon for the counties around Galveston Bay as the higher
winds linger. A weak boundary associated with the low pressure
system to the west will enter the area this afternoon bringing a
slight chance of showers across the northern third of the area, a
temporary westerly wind shift, and drier conditions causing
clearing skies. This boundary will stall somewhere between I-10
and the coast this evening before retreating back northwards
through the night causing a return to moist, southerly flow. Light
winds tonight will lead to the potential for areas of dense fog
developing that persists into Thursday morning. There will be a
reprieve from this fog during the day on Thursday, but expect
foggy conditions to return Thursday night into Friday.
The strong southerly flow will lead to well above normal
temperatures with highs this afternoon getting into the mid to upper
80s across the area. Cloud cover on Thursday will lead to slightly
cooler conditions, but afternoon highs will still get into the low
to mid 80s. Overnight lows tonight and Thursday night will be near
record high minimums with temperatures not falling below the mid
to upper 60s for most of the area.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
A strong building mid/upper ridge over Florida will nudge
westward on Friday, pushing 500 MB heights into the 588-592 dam
range. At the surface, continued southeasterly flow will bring
both moisture advection and WAA into SE Texas. The only potential
complication in Friday`s forecast is a weak frontal boundary that
could seep into our CWA. The 12 KM NAM is particularly bullish
with bringing this frontal boundary farther south into our region.
Though the front will be pushing into a PWAT rich environment,
the strong capping associated with the ridge will keep PoPs low on
Friday. However, the presence of the front does complicate the
temperature forecast, especially over our northern counties. For
now, we have opted for Friday afternoon temps in the 70s over our
northern counties. For most of the rest of the CWA, the temp
forecast remains in the low-80s with muggy dew points. Areas near
the coast are likely to be a bit cooler in the 70s thanks to the
cool Gulf waters. Overnight lows are expected to generally be in
the 60s.
By Saturday, the weak frontal boundary should lift back to the
north. With continued ridging, onshore flow, and slightly warmer
850 MB temps, expect Saturday to be another warm and muggy day
with highs generally in the low/mid 80s (70s near the coast).
Ridging aloft is expected to start breaking down on Sunday. The
resulting cooling aloft could add enough instability to kick off a
few showers, especially over our northern counties. However, PoPs
on Sunday remain quite low. By Monday, a mid/upper trough over the
Desert Southwest is expected to eject out over the central plains.
The introduction of some modest PVA as well as the potential for
an associated surface cold front may provide the ascent we need to
induce better rainfall chances by Monday. However, the latest
global deterministic guidance continues to suggest that the bulk
of the large scale ascent will remain north of SE Texas.
Therefore, Monday`s PoPs remain modest (20-30 percent north of
I-10, 10-20 percent south of I-10).
Monday`s front could be strong enough to bring a noticeable air
mass change. Perhaps we can drop those highs down into the 70s
with much lower humidity. The drier air would also allow
temperatures to drop more at night. Therefore, we may trade our
current overnight temps in the 60s for overnight lows in the 50s.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 506 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
MVFR CIGs will continue through the mid morning for terminals west
of I-45, and then through the early afternoon for the terminals
east of I-45. GLS will have periods of IFR conditions through the
early morning hours as sea fog impacts the terminal. Strong
southerly winds of 15 to 20kts sustained with gusts to 30kts will
continue through the late morning to early afternoon, then
becoming light this evening and through Thursday morning. The
light winds combined with returning moisture will lead to the
return of low clouds and fog tonight. CIGs of 500ft or less will
impact GLS by midnight with MVFR conditions of CIGs to 1500ft
occuring up through IAH. By 9 to 11z, CIGS less than 500ft will
spread across the entire area and remain in place through the
early morning hours on Thursday. There will also be areas of dense
fog forming overnight across much of the region bringing
visibilities down to at least 3 miles with periods of periods of
visibilities below 1/2 mile. MVFR conditions with CIGs around 1500
to 2000ft will return by noon on Thursday for much of the region,
but GLS may stay in IFR conditions all day due to periods of sea
fog.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
South winds of 15 to 25 knots along with seas increasing to 6 to
10 feet are expected this morning. Winds and seas should begin to
decrease this afternoon. Though advisory level winds are expected
to end this afternoon, it may take until overnight tonight or very
early tomorrow morning for seas to drop below advisory levels,
especially for areas more than 20 NM offshore. Light to moderate
onshore flow is expected to continue through the weekend. Areas of
sea fog will be possible Thursday through the weekend. If winds
decrease enough tomorrow, then areas of sea fog will be possible
as early as Wednesday night. The best chance of sea fog will be
during the evening, overnight, and morning hours. Increasing
onshore winds are possible by late Sunday into Monday as the next
frontal boundary approaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 62 79 64 / 20 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 86 66 83 68 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 65 72 64 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ214-236>238-313-
335>338-436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ350-
355.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
Randomly pouring in northwest Cypress right now. I hadn’t been able to pay much attention to weather other than knowing it was going to be warm and muggy with almost no rain….