February 2023

[Stratton20]

jasons2k holy molly that sounds delicious!!

[redneckweather]

The GFS is beginning to get my interest

Big front around 16th/17th with snow showers into the 18th for Southeast, TX with a dusting to 1/2".

[869MB]

I made the attached post on December 11th regarding my concern about the severe weather possibilities as winter wrapped up and spring began. My thinking hasn't changed as of this time. In fact, I probably should have pushed the timeline up considering the tornadic storms we experienced a few weeks ago here in SE Texas. The recent active southern stream jet is still not sitting well with me.

[DoctorMu]

1.2 inches here. We're pretty soggy, but rivers and lakes should be in good shape.

[Cpv17]

I’m not complaining because we’re waterlogged down here but the models are drying up next weeks system pretty substantially and they really don’t show much QPF overall over the next couple weeks.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
509 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 406 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

Benign conditions are expected through the end of the work week.

Pleasant and cool conditions are expected today in the wake of
yesterday`s cold front. Some areas of patchy fog will be present
across portions of Southeast Texas and may affect driving conditions
this morning. Once the fog clears, look for mostly sunny skies and
light variable winds through the rest of the morning hours. Winds
will quickly turn south southeasterly this afternoon and a few
clouds will start to develop as a little bit of low level moisture
begins to move in from the southwest. Highs today will be
comfortable, roughly in the upper 60s to low 70s range areawide.

As another upper level trough pushes through the Southern Plains
today, a reinforcing cold front will move across Southeast Texas
late tonight into early Friday morning. Given that conditions will
still be fairly dry, no rainfall is expected with this front.
However, much drier and cooler air, along with strong winds, will
occur in the wake of the FROPA for Friday. Strong CAA on Friday will
allow for temperatures to cool down even further, with highs only
reaching the 50s for much of Southeast Texas (temperatures will be
cooler to the north and warmer towards the coast). With northerly
winds of 20 to 25 mph and higher gusts, conditions will feel even
colder, in particular Friday night into Saturday morning as
temperatures quickly plunge after sunset. The lows will drop to or
just above freezing for our northern and western counties, while the
rest of the area will have lows in the mid to upper 30s. So
technically, pretty cold for everyone in Southeast Texas. With the
addition of moderate to strong winds, temperatures will feel closer
towards the mid to upper 20s by early Saturday morning. Yikes! Thus,
it is recommended to wear extra layers if you plan to go outdoors
during that time. Also, make sure to protect exposed pipes, cover
plants that are sensitive to these temperatures, and bring pets
indoors.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

Surface high pressure will be settling into the state on Saturday and
will help to bring sunny skies to the area. Relaxing northwest to north
winds can be expected as the day progresses and high temperatures will
warm into the 50s. With the high overhead Sunday night, almost ideal
cooling conditions (maybe a few clouds moving into the area during the
late overnight hours) will help lows to dip into the upper 20s to lower
30s up north to the mid to upper 30s central to the low to mid 40s at
the beaches. Clouds will be on the increase on Sunday as the high works
its way off to the east and south winds return to the area. Look for
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies can
be expected Sunday night (lows in the 40s inland and 50s coast) and
Monday (highs in a mid 60s to 70 range) as moisture levels begin to
deepen with the help of increase southeast winds. An organizing/deepening
storm system will work its way across the state mainly in a Monday afternoon
through Tuesday time period and will bring our area its next round of
showers and thunderstorms. We will be monitoring model solutions with
this system over the next several days to see if there will be a risk
for possible strong or severe storms somewhere in or near our area.
Wednesday looks quiet with this weather event off to our east.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 508 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

Spotty areas of fog will continue to result in periods of MVFR to
LIFR through around 14-15Z this morning. Then, expect VFR
conditions. Light VRB winds today and tonight. A reinforcing cold
front will pass through SE TX late tonight into early Friday morning
and will quickly increase winds in it`s wake. Strong gusty winds
will be present for much of the region Friday morning into Saturday
morning, and speeds will range between 15 to 20 KTS with gusts up to
30 KTS by the end of the forecast period. Conditions will remain
fairly dry, thus, wx is not expected with the FROPA.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

Northeast to east winds at around 10 KTS and seas 2 to 4 feet
expected today. A reinforcing dry front will move through the region
late tonight into early Friday morning. Expect even cooler, drier
airmass, as well as strong gusty winds in the wake of the FROPA.
Winds will strengthen quickly to 25-30 knots and gusts of 35-40
knots starting from the northwest to southeast (from Matagorda Bay
to southeast of the offshore waters) early Friday morning into
Saturday morning. A Gale Watch has been issued for Matagorda Bay and
the Gulf waters from Friday morning to Saturday morning for frequent
gusts at Gale strength. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for
Galveston Bay, but may be included in the Gale Watch/Warning if
needed. Wind driven seas will climb to 9 to 12 feet across the
offshore waters, and 6 to 8 feet across the nearshore waters.
Although winds relax on Saturday, waves may take a little longer to
decrease and may require additional Advisories (in particular the
offshore waters). Conditions should be below advisory or flag
criteria by Sunday as high pressure builds across the region.

The next best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Monday
into Tuesday as onshore flow returns and a warm front followed by a
cold front moves across the region. Southerly winds will also
strengthen Monday into Tuesday as the local pressure gradient
tightens and may require Cautions flags or Advisories. Stay tuned on
the potential for strong storms during this timeframe.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 43 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 69 46 56 37 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 68 50 58 42 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
GMZ330-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 4 AM CST Saturday for
GMZ335.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24

[Cromagnum]

Awesome looking weekend on tap.

[srainhoutx]

You guys and gals enjoy your weather. It looks like I will likely be dealing with the biggest snow storm I had since moving here. The GFS and Euro have be very insistent of the possibility of 2 feet of snow started Saturday afternoon and wrapping up Sunday night. This is going to be a very wet snow storm associated with the upper low now moving into Texas from New Mexico.

[tireman4]

You guys and gals enjoy your weather. It looks like I will likely be dealing with the biggest snow storm I had since moving here. The GFS and Euro have be very insistent of the possibility of 2 feet of snow started Saturday afternoon and wrapping up Sunday night. This is going to be a very wet snow storm associated with the upper low now moving into Texas from New Mexico.

Stay safe and warm up there, sir.

[tireman4]

Meanwhile, back in the casa....we could be dealing with possible severe issues...

[tireman4]

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

VFR well into the overnight hours...if not longer. We anticipate
seeing some additional cloud cover moving into the region ahead
of, and behind, a reinforcing cold front late tonight and Friday.
General model consensus mostly keeps any ceilings above 3500ft,
though there are a few outliers that show some pockets of 1500ft
at times. For the 18z TAFs, we maintained the higher variety but
and will keep an eye on trends. NNW winds will increase heading
through the morning hours Fri with frequent gusts around the 25kt
range anticipated throughout the day. 47

&&

[Iceresistance]

2.2 inches of rain, then it snowed a little bit last night.


Now I'm expecting snow tonight, that was not expected.

[DoctorMu]

I don't see any rain in our future except for around Valentine's Day. Another Chamber of Commerce Day here in CLL. We should enjoy a couple of weeks of seasonable weather with a good bit of sun.

[Stratton20]

Still looks like we will see some more arctic air next weekend, although nothing overly cold, noaa 6-10 or the 15-19th look to be below normal, ensembles in good agreement on colder weather, we stay in the low to mid 40’s for highs and lows in the low to mid 30’s for a few days, but at this time I expect a dry frontal passage, dont see much evidence for any overrunning precipitation

[jasons2k]

Yesterday was great or another “Chamber of Commerce” day for Dr. Mu.

Today and tomorrow - a little chilly for me. Looking forward to the nice weather next week. Close calls with freezing tonight and again next weekend. Other than that, not much. More and more things are blooming every day. The sycamores are leafing out now.

[Cpv17]

Yesterday was great or another “Chamber of Commerce” day for Dr. Mu.

Today and tomorrow - a little chilly for me. Looking forward to the nice weather next week. Close calls with freezing tonight and again next weekend. Other than that, not much. More and more things are blooming every day. The sycamores are leafing out now.

It wouldn’t even be that cold out there if it weren’t for the wind. That wind is freaking sharp!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It's not cold outside. Run felt great today in shorts and a t shirt.

[davidiowx]

Yeah… this isn’t cold at all. It’s definitely nice but I wear shorts in this weather lol

[jasons2k]

My forecast lows this weekend have come-up a few degrees. NWS now showing 36 on Sunday morning instead of 33. Fine with me.

I held off on my run today. I’ll run tomorrow after the wind calms down a little.

[Cpv17]

Man, you people are made of something else. I have jeans on and a hoodie and I’m still cold out there but of course if you’re actually working and getting your blood pumping, that’s different. It’s also way windier where I am compared to y’all city folk lol