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Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 1:19 pm
by Cromagnum
My yard is sucking it the hell up already. Lack of rain, but humid enough that fungus already seems to be an issue.

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 2:26 pm
by tireman4
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

MVFR conditions will continue to persist ahead of the passage of a
cold front this afternoon and into the evening. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this front over the
next 2-3 hours, resulting in some temporarily reduced
visibilities and possibly a brief stronger wind gust. As the
rainfall moves out of the area this evening and drier air moves in
behind the front, skies should begin to clear. However, along the
immediate coast, marine fog is expected to develop and may
potentially reduce visibility as low as 1 mile overnight. By
tomorrow morning, skies should become mostly clear with light west
winds developing.

Cady

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 2:36 pm
by Stratton20
Cromagnum yeah those mushrooms that keep popping up in yards are so annoying, you get rid of them, and then boom a dew days later they are back again

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 3:01 pm
by Cromagnum
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Mar 24, 2023 2:36 pm Cromagnum yeah those mushrooms that keep popping up in yards are so annoying, you get rid of them, and then boom a dew days later they are back again
I wish it was mushrooms. I'm battling take all root rot which will destroy the entire yard.

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 3:05 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Looks like storms will be reaching my area near midnight. By the time they reach my area, it looks like it will mainly be a linear event. However, I am not going to let my guard down. Definitely looks ugly around Vicksburg and Monroe.

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 3:58 pm
by tireman4
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Fri Mar 24, 2023 3:05 pm Looks like storms will be reaching my area near midnight. By the time they reach my area, it looks like it will mainly be a linear event. However, I am not going to let my guard down. Definitely looks ugly around Vicksburg and Monroe.
Be safe out there Captain! How are your classes?

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 4:01 pm
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 242026
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
326 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Latest radar imagery indicates a thin band of thunderstorms
located just to our northeast, while most of the area continues to
be impacted by light showers ahead of an advancing weak surface
cold front. Initially, high-resolution models indicated the
potential for strong to severe storms across the far northern
zones this afternoon. However, the persistence of a low-level
capping inversion has largely inhibited convective development
this afternoon. Given this, we anticipate the threat for severe
weather to end in the near future.

As the boundary continues to push southeastward through our area
this evening, a surge of drier air will filter in behind it and
dew points should drop into the 40s/50s by tomorrow morning with
clear skies prevailing throughout the course of the day. This will
be accompanied by cool temperatures brought on by mild CAA and the
aforementioned clear skies with most locations seeing lows in the
50s to around 60.

Clear skies, dry air aloft, and some midlevel westerly flow will
allow for a fairly robust warmup on Saturday as highs reach the
mid 80s across much of the area. That being said, things should
remain fairly comfortable for outdoor activities given the low dew
points in place. This period of conformable conditions will be
short-lived, however, as the eastward drift of surface high
pressure and the approach of a surface warm front will allow for
winds to return to the SE and humid conditions to return.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Flow will be mainly zonal at mid and upper levels on Sunday through
mid week. At surface a warm front lifts north across the area on
Sunday bringing showers and a few thunderstorms...and more humid air
back into the region...after a briefly drier air mass was in place
the day before. The front then pushes back south across the area as
a cold front on Monday as high pressure builds in over the Plains.
This high pressure pushes E on Wednesday...allowing for onshore flow
to push warmer...humid air mass back into the area. This frontal
boundary...passing back and forth across the area alternately as a
shallow cold and warm front...will help trigger scattered showers
and thunderstorms at times...warranting chance pops most days.

Late in the week...Thursday and Friday...a mid and upper level
shortwave trough ejects out of SW US...pushing into West Texas by
end of the week. This will provide next chance for severe weather
potentially with cold frontal boundary and lift and shear associated
with upper feature. N TX is currently outlooked for severe potential
for next Thursday due to these features.

Reilly

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

MVFR conditions will continue to persist ahead of the passage of a
cold front this afternoon and into the evening. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this front over the
next 2-3 hours, resulting in some temporarily reduced
visibilities and possibly a brief stronger wind gust. As the
rainfall moves out of the area this evening and drier air moves in
behind the front, skies should begin to clear. However, along the
immediate coast, marine fog is expected to develop and may
potentially reduce visibility as low as 1 mile overnight. By
tomorrow morning, skies should become mostly clear with light west
winds developing.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Onshore flow will gradually diminish tonight with winds veering form
S to SW. With warm...humid airmass still in place may have sea fog
develop for a period of time late tonight. Drier air finally filters
in Saturday morning with weak cold frontal passage and offshore
flow. Weak front lifts north as a warm front Sunday with onshore
flow becoming reestablished but with fairly modest wind speeds.
Front pushes south again as a cold front Monday night...with
stronger offshore then NE flow behind it by Tuesday...when Small
Craft Advisory headlines might be needed. Moderate winds gradually
veer from there...becoming SE and onshore by Thursday...with
moderate winds and seas.

Reilly


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 52 81 52 76 / 0 0 0 30
Houston (IAH) 59 86 57 77 / 0 0 0 50
Galveston (GLS) 64 83 65 74 / 0 0 0 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 11 PM CDT this evening
for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Reilly
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Reilly

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 4:31 pm
by jasons2k
0.46” here - not bad.

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 4:43 pm
by captainbarbossa19
tireman4 wrote: Fri Mar 24, 2023 3:58 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Fri Mar 24, 2023 3:05 pm Looks like storms will be reaching my area near midnight. By the time they reach my area, it looks like it will mainly be a linear event. However, I am not going to let my guard down. Definitely looks ugly around Vicksburg and Monroe.
Be safe out there Captain! How are your classes?
Going pretty well. I have less than 6 weeks of the spring semester. Next fall is going to be very exciting because I am taking synoptic meteorology (with calculus) and weather forecasting 1!

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 4:43 pm
by DoctorMu
tireman4 wrote: Fri Mar 24, 2023 12:46 pm Meanwhile, to our East....
Of course. On cue.

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 4:45 pm
by DoctorMu
jasons2k wrote: Fri Mar 24, 2023 4:31 pm 0.46” here - not bad.
Nada here. I'm afraid that could be a more and more common outcome for CLL.

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 5:12 pm
by don
Starting next week we will start transitioning to a wetter pattern as we enter April.With a stalled frontal boundary acting as a focal point for on and off showers and storms multiple days next week.

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 5:25 pm
by DoctorMu
The front should be located closer to the coast. Only a 20-30% chance for us.

Maybe next weekend with another front.

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 5:34 pm
by Cpv17
DoctorMu wrote: Fri Mar 24, 2023 5:25 pm The front should be located closer to the coast. Only a 20-30% chance for us.

Maybe next weekend with another front.
Hang in there. April is looking promising.

Re: March 2023

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2023 11:13 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Violent wedge tornado about 30 minutes to an hour from me right now.

Re: March 2023

Posted: Sat Mar 25, 2023 4:05 pm
by Iceresistance
Last night was horrible for Mississippi. :cry:

Re: March 2023

Posted: Sat Mar 25, 2023 4:27 pm
by Stratton20
Saw a storm chaser got caught right in the suction vortex of a tornado in mississippi i believe, dont know his name but he survived, though his car got a nasty beating, ill never be able to storm chase, way way too dangerous

Re: March 2023

Posted: Sat Mar 25, 2023 6:12 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 4:27 pm Saw a storm chaser got caught right in the suction vortex of a tornado in mississippi i believe, dont know his name but he survived, though his car got a nasty beating, ill never be able to storm chase, way way too dangerous
Almost all tornadoes travel SW to NE. Just stay south or west of it. Can’t be that difficult. I’d love to do it.

Re: March 2023

Posted: Sat Mar 25, 2023 6:14 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 6:12 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 4:27 pm Saw a storm chaser got caught right in the suction vortex of a tornado in mississippi i believe, dont know his name but he survived, though his car got a nasty beating, ill never be able to storm chase, way way too dangerous
Almost all tornadoes travel SW to NE. Just stay south or west of it. Can’t be that difficult. I’d love to do it.
I chased when I was at A&M in the early 2000s. It’s such a rush.

Re: March 2023

Posted: Sat Mar 25, 2023 6:30 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 mistakes happen sometimes, even though we know how tornadoes move they can still be unpredictable, luckily that mistake didnt result in a death, plus it was at night time when its harder to see one coming, definitely a big adrenaline rush chasing those things for sure