April 2023

[Cpv17]

The SPC has upgraded southeast Texas to a slight risk for severe weather for late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Lots of heating and high dew points for these storms to work with. Where ever they do form, watch out! They could be really nasty.

[don]

...Mid MS Valley to the Gulf coast...
A shortwave trough over the central Great Plains will shift east
into the Mid-MS Valley through tonight. This trough has two embedded
impulses, one across central KS and the other in eastern CO. The
latter is expected to become dominant as the trough and attendant
mid-level jet amplify, centered on this evening. The leading impulse
will likely aid in initial surface-based thunderstorm development in
the Ozark Plateau, immediately ahead of the primary surface cyclone
along the northern return of richer boundary-layer moisture from
eastern OK/western AR. Activity will expand northeast in MO, as well
as develop south along and ahead of an eastward-moving cold front
through AR to southeast TX.

Weak low-level shear and rather modest hodograph curvature suggests
that large hail will be the primary initial threat. Significant
severe hail will be possible owing to very steep mid-level lapse
rates initially and ample buoyancy amid 30-40 kt effective bulk
shear. How quickly storms grow upscale from discrete supercells into
a QLCS is somewhat uncertain, but is most likely to occur first
across MO/northern AR towards the Mid-MS Valley in the late
afternoon to early evening. This will yield a corresponding increase
in the damaging wind threat. The 12Z NAM is substantially stronger
than the 15Z RAP and 00Z ECMWF with the degree of low-level mass
response ahead of the line in the early evening, lowering confidence
in the degree of embedded tornado threat. The northern line of
storms will weaken into tonight as storms spread east of the Mid-MS
Valley amid diminishing buoyancy with eastern extent.

Farther south, a messier mix of semi-discrete supercells and
clusters might evolve into a southeast-moving QLCS spreading across
the Lower MS Valley tonight. Low confidence exists in this scenario
given potential for multiple rounds of convection this afternoon and
evening. An ongoing MCS across LA/far southern MS may continue east
along the central Gulf Coast with a primary threat of strong to
isolated severe gusts. The track of this MCS this morning has
yielded a swath of convective overturning in its wake, suggesting
that weak low-level warm theta-e advection along/atop its residual
outflow could support redevelopment of scattered storms around peak
heating. Deep-layer vertical shear will be weaker with southern
extent, but steep lapse rates and large undisturbed warm-sector CAPE
will support potential for large hail/damaging winds late this
afternoon/evening.

[jasons2k]

This weather pattern is great. We’re having an actual, real spring season for a change.

[Cromagnum]

90 and sunny here with plenty of humidity. Might get feisty.

[869MB]

Mesoscale Discussion 0526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Middle/Upper Texas Coastal Plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 151912Z - 152045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in
the next couple of hours across portions of the Middle and Upper TX
Coast vicinity. Large hail and locally strong gusts may accompany
this activity. The area is being monitored for possible severe
thunderstorm watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted across the TX coastal plain
vicinity this afternoon. Strong heating amid low 70s F dewpoints and
steep midlevel lapse rates is contributing to MLCAPE around
2000-4000 J/kg. A southeastward-advancing cold front remains well
northwest of the region, and is not expected to move into the area
until later this evening, resulting in only weak confluence
associated with residual outflow from overnight/morning convection
and sea breeze interactions. In addition to weak forcing mechanisms,
vertical shear will remain modest, with effective shear values
generally less than 30 kt. Nevertheless, strong instability and
steep lapse rates should support at least brief vigorous organized
updrafts. Isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts will be
possible with the most intense cells. Longevity of stronger/better
organized cells in uncertain, but trends will continue to be
monitored and a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this
afternoon.

..Leitman/Grams.. 04/15/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 30039595 30449511 31109396 31049362 30679348 30149360
29719379 29539408 29039492 28509596 28569639 28859667
29379671 29749643 30039595

[Cpv17]

HRRR seems less enthused now than earlier. Guess we’ll just have to wait see.

[Cromagnum]

MCD shifted way north. We can probably forget about anything this afternoon until the front comes in late, and "a broken line of storms" was already mentioned.

[davidiowx]

MCD shifted way north. We can probably forget about anything this afternoon until the front comes in late, and "a broken line of storms" was already mentioned.

Yea what a tease from roughly two hours ago. Pretty massive shift in small time frame..


Mesoscale Discussion 0530
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 152057Z - 152300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a risk of damaging wind and hail are
expected to develop within the next couple of hours. A Severe
Thunderstorm watch is being considered.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus has been developing along an eastward
moving cold front in eastern Texas. Ahead of this development,
MLCAPE is approaching 3000-4000 J/kg. Effective shear is marginal,
around 20-30 kts. Initial development will pose a severe hail risk
before mode transitions to become more linear as forcing for ascent
increasing with eastward progression of the cold front. This area is
being monitored for a potential Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

..Thornton/Grams.. 04/15/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 31169718 31519684 32369607 32449531 32259482 32109469
31759453 31409461 30979491 30619519 30529547 30339591
30269623 30269654 30319691 30359700 30399702 31169718

[davidiowx]

Welp watch was just issued

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 141 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC007-015-025-039-057-071-089-123-149-157-167-175-177-185-199-
201-225-239-241-245-255-285-291-313-321-339-351-361-373-391-407-
455-457-469-471-473-477-481-160500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0141.230415T2230Z-230416T0500Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARANSAS AUSTIN BEE
BRAZORIA CALHOUN CHAMBERS
COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE
FORT BEND GALVESTON GOLIAD
GONZALES GRIMES HARDIN
HARRIS HOUSTON JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON KARNES
LAVACA LIBERTY MADISON
MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY NEWTON
ORANGE POLK REFUGIO
SAN JACINTO TRINITY TYLER
VICTORIA WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON
$$

[Cpv17]

Welp watch was just issued

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 141 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC007-015-025-039-057-071-089-123-149-157-167-175-177-185-199-
201-225-239-241-245-255-285-291-313-321-339-351-361-373-391-407-
455-457-469-471-473-477-481-160500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0141.230415T2230Z-230416T0500Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARANSAS AUSTIN BEE
BRAZORIA CALHOUN CHAMBERS
COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE
FORT BEND GALVESTON GOLIAD
GONZALES GRIMES HARDIN
HARRIS HOUSTON JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON KARNES
LAVACA LIBERTY MADISON
MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY NEWTON
ORANGE POLK REFUGIO
SAN JACINTO TRINITY TYLER
VICTORIA WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON
$$

I think they were just trying to cover two different areas…

[don]

[Cromagnum]

I'll take a thunderstorm over a hailstorm, but there isn't a cloud in the sky besides far off to my east.

[Cpv17]

I'll take a thunderstorm over a hailstorm, but there isn't a cloud in the sky besides far off to my east.

That’s because the storms haven’t developed yet. The eastern development you’re talking about was supposed to happen first. And so far it has.

[Cpv17]

Geez, that’s a massive thunderstorm just north of Beaumont.

[Cromagnum]

Geez, that’s a massive thunderstorm just north of Beaumont.

No lie. I can see it from Rosharon.

[djmike]

Severe thunderstorm warning for Beaumont. Its pretty crazy here right now. Its a constant rumble of thunder. No breaks. Heavy rain, hailing and cloud to ground all around me. Looks like nighttime.

[DoctorMu]

This weather pattern is great. We’re having an actual, real spring season for a change.

Yep - a good run. Today has been humid, but rain interspersed with days of dry weather. Tonight looks like a bust, but a moderate chance of rain Tue night/Wed. Before that, more great weather tonight, tomorrow, Monday, and Tuesday.

[djmike]

Close to 3” and pouring

[djmike]

Beaumont

[DoctorMu]

FROPA just 30 min. ago, so we're on the drier side already. A broken line of T-storms and cells forming south of here.